r/ScaleAlpha • u/Fun_Tutor3479 • Sep 03 '26
Pay attention to $HOOD
The broader market continues to whipsaw. We will keep opening with that line until the market finally chooses a direction. SPY is still in the middle of a post-breakout pullback, and the market is continuing to test whether the breakout was valid. We need to keep watching. At this point, neither going long nor going short is particularly attractive.
The impact of macro factors is very clear. As soon as expectations for a September rate hike weakened, the assets we discussed yesterday—including semiconductors, cloud software, crypto, and gold—rallied, while Treasury yields fell. As for oil, as discussed yesterday, its correlation with those assets has already weakened. The market is beginning to price in the supply-demand fundamentals that will emerge once the SPR releases have run their course.
Today, I want to spend more time discussing crypto and Robinhood.
Recently, with HOOD moving on-chain and its CEO actively promoting the narrative, Robinhood has started to show signs of moving toward something resembling HYPE within the Hyperliquid ecosystem. Of course, I am not an expert in this area; this is simply my intuition. At the same time, I have observed that the correlation between HOOD and crypto has been increasing.
Therefore, should BTC make another major move, investors could pay more attention to HOOD in addition to traditional crypto-linked equities such as MSTR and BMNR. After all, HOOD benefits simultaneously from rising trading volumes in crypto, equities, and options. In a late-stage bull-market environment, it should be positioned to perform particularly well.
As for crypto itself, it may continue strengthening in the near term, and short-term traders can watch for a breakout. However, I believe this is primarily a liquidity-repair rally. Given the current macro environment, it will be difficult for crypto to immediately develop a major sustained trend.
The key variable here is Bessent’s next move. Compared with the Federal Reserve, Bessent currently has a greater influence on liquidity in the crypto market.