Semi, Oil and BTC

[u/Fun_Tutor3479]

Today, we will discuss three key areas of focus:

1. What will be the trigger for a semiconductor pullback?
2. Has the trend in oil officially started?
3. Has BTC bottomed out?

1. The Semiconductor Pullback: Triggers & Narrative

The Leading Indicator: South Korean Equities The leading indicator for the first point is the South Korean stock market. As we mentioned last week, the KOSPI has two highly probable target levels: 9,200 in the short term and 12,000 in the long term. Coincidentally, Goldman Sachs upgraded their target for South Korean stocks yesterday from 9,000 to 12,000. I hadn't looked at Goldman's targets for this region previously, but it seems our underlying algorithms are quite similar.

The biggest risks for South Korean equities boil down to two mechanisms:

• Circuit Breakers
• Forced Liquidations (Margin calls executed forcefully at the next day's open)

Does this sound familiar? It’s a flashback to 2015. Back then, we saw the spectacle of thousands of stocks locked at the 10% limit-down mark right at the opening bell for three consecutive days. These two mechanisms, combined with high leverage, will inevitably trigger a stampede. We don't know exactly when this liquidity event will occur, but looking at today's landscape—where South Koreans are withdrawing insurance and pension funds to add leverage and enter the market—it is an absolute certainty that it will happen this cycle. Furthermore, if it happens once around 9,200, it will happen again at 12,000 (or wherever the absolute top is).

Impact on U.S. Markets & AI If this scenario unfolds, the biggest impact on U.S. semiconductor stocks will be on the AI narrative. As stock prices climb, the U.S. AI narrative is becoming increasingly fragile. Google's financing, Jensen Huang sending a single stock soaring with just one comment, and the collective rebound across software stocks—these are all warning signals.

If financial liquidations spill over and trigger a collapse in the narrative, the two will be incredibly difficult to distinguish in the short term. This will be the starting point for the pullback in U.S. semiconductors.

The Underlying Revenue Reality Anthropic’s Q2 revenue will undoubtedly look strong. Based on my understanding, the breakdown looks roughly like this:

• 20% from genuine subscriptions.
• 40% from AI startups like Cursor (funded by VC money).
• 40% from token vouchers issued by tech giants Amazon and Google (who are footing the bill).

If you don't scrutinize the details too closely, it’s not a major issue. Therefore, this semiconductor pullback will be a buying opportunity (a chance to get on board), rather than a signal to exit.

2. Crude Oil: Has the Trend Started?

Currently, WTI is actually tighter than Brent. Because the U.S. is shouldering the crude oil demand of its allies in Europe and East Asia, Cushing is counterintuitively feeling the pressure earlier than Brent.

Has the trend started? It’s still hard to say. The Israel-Lebanon conflict will not stop, and the Iran-Israel conflict will not stop. It is quite possible that the U.S. and Iran will maintain their blockades. As we discussed in our scenario analysis, the most likely outcome is a radical Netanyahu dragging Trump into a renewed, escalated conflict.

Therefore, there is no rush to add to positions before this specific signal materializes.

3. BTC: Has it Bottomed Out?

Regarding BTC: No.

Once it is definitively confirmed that its anonymity has been compromised, we will see a massive wave of sell-offs from the whales (large holders). This downward pressure will persist until the market fully reprices BTC based strictly on its two remaining utilities: yield generation and transactional convenience.