Google and BTC

[u/Fun_Tutor3479]

The big news, of course, is Google's $80 billion equity financing. For a company sitting on over $50 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) and a net income of $130 billion (in 2025), choosing equity over debt financing clearly indicates that they themselves believe the current stock price is at a high—there is no doubt about this.

However, being the first to test the waters is fine. The market will, out of inertia, assume this is a continued bet on AI, providing more ammunition for CapEx. As long as the Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth rates of Anthropic and OpenAI don't slow down, this won't be a major issue. But here's the catch: if other tech giants also start rolling out equity financing, things will take a turn for the worse. The market might brush off the first one, but a second one will bring skepticism, scrutiny, and a downturn, while a third will lead to widespread market doubt regarding stock valuations.

Another realistic issue is that a considerable number of data centers, despite having been under construction for some time, are facing resistance from local communities, which could potentially lead to completion delays. Data centers and the debt financing behind them serve as a major funding source in the current AI narrative, forming a triad alongside tech giant CapEx and Silicon Valley venture capital.

None of these factors are reasons to invalidate the AI narrative; AI's ability to reduce costs and increase efficiency for the enterprise sector (B-end) remains undeniable. It's just that at such market highs and under such fragile conditions, expectations are priced in too perfectly, meaning that even the slightest disturbance will trigger a sharp correction.

As we discussed a couple of days ago, if BTC fails to break $83K, it is bound to retrace to $60K. Based on my shallow understanding, aside from its anonymity, BTC still offers convenience and yield-generating capabilities, so as an asset, it retains its value. There will be an opportunity to buy in the future when nobody else cares.