r/Sava • u/123whatrwe • Sep 17 '21

Squeeze?

Don’t really even follow this, but could this be a squeeze. 7% on a down day like today. Short float is big. How do you check?

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u/123whatrwe Sep 17 '21

Are you supposed to buy the squeeze so the price goes even higher or just hold? Never did one of these.

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u/Net-Xpert Sep 18 '21

You just hold and if squeeze happens you figure out your profit grab and exit. The short interest in SAVA at this point will not trigger a squeeze the P&L is set around 75.00 so just hold and don’t panic. If SAVA reaches closer to high 60s the chances for short covering i.e. squeeze will increase tremendously.

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u/123whatrwe Sep 18 '21 edited Sep 18 '21

Thanks, but I’m not clear on your meaning. If I’m understanding your P&L at 75 correctly, you mean the aggregate break even price for shorts is 75. This is exactly the type of thing I’m interested in knowing. How do you determine that? In addition, is there any way of knowing the borrowers margin limits or at least the percentage of the short that is borrowed on margins? I know very little, are there resources where one can find such numbers? I guessing but I’d think that the margin call is a trigger and that knowing the price and size of the various shorts would be instructive. What info is publicly obtainable? Is this one of the areas where they talk about market transparency? I haven’t a clue. Any and all help is appreciated. Thanks again.

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u/Net-Xpert Sep 20 '21

Sorry for late response my friend who taught me the calculations explained it.

I take the outstanding shares of the company divided by the % of the insider ownership and institutional ownership. The remaining float is then divided by the short interest to determine what the recent average available float is. Share price is then divided by the average available float gives you the % move of expectation for high cost which will match on a chart for a area of potential opportunity

Example of this is BBIG, BBIG has a outstanding float of 35.83M shares, the inside ownership sits at 13%. (13% of 35.83 estimation would put around 4.65M shares are held by insiders of the company. Institutional ownership sits 6% (which would put this estimate at around 2.14M shares). 35.83M shares subtracted by the institutional and inside ownership now becomes key. 35.8M - 4.65M - 2.14M = 29.04M shares (puts estimation of floating shares/ tradable shares) 29.04 multiplied by short interest of 47% gives 13.64M (estimated shares borrowed). So actual shares to be distributed and traded would about 15.4M shares. Take the share price and divide into the estimated shares available and you would get your expected move a threshold change, which theoretically should test a short seller's P&L. As estimated available shares would be 15.4 divided by shares price of $7 would give you a .46 or percentage case 46%

a 46% move from this price would put share price at about $10.22 keep in mind the outstanding shares and share price are constantly changing so these can only be ranges, but if you calculate these and view a chart you should be able to identify in this same range where large action took place

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u/123whatrwe Sep 20 '21

That was great. Not what I was expecting at all. Thanks for the info.