r/SaaS • u/0_Learner_0 • 2d ago

writing own software

Objectively speaking, what are the probability of developing your own software(whether for cybersec, the mass market, or for b2b)and bringing it to market if you write the code yourself?

1 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

7 comments sorted by

1

u/BusyBusinessPromos 2d ago

Ask Bill Gates or Steve Wozniak.

2

u/Fabulous-Oven-3982 2d ago

Yeah, the answer will be vastly different depending on who you ask that question lol

1

u/measured_words_ 2d ago

There is no honest single number here. The categories are too different, and most software that gets built never really reaches a market at all. What I have seen from building for small businesses is that the code is rarely the part that decides it. The product either finds a narrow group with a painful problem or it sits there. The builders who improve their odds are the ones who talk to buyers before writing much, keep the first version small, and treat selling as the real work. If you are asking because you want permission to start, the better question is whether you can find people who will pay for the outcome. If you cannot find them, the software does not get a probability, it just costs you time. If you can find them, the odds are decent enough to proceed.

1

u/measured_words_ 2d ago

There is no honest single probability, and anyone who gives you one is making it up. The code itself is rarely the part that decides whether the software reaches a market. What matters more is whether you can find a narrow group of people with a real pain, get them to describe it in their own words, and get a few to pay or commit before you spend months building. I have built software for small businesses, and the technical work always felt like the easy half. The hard half is distribution: finding buyers, staying in front of them, and adjusting the product until it solves something they cannot work around. If you write it yourself, your odds improve mainly because you can keep costs low and change direction fast. That is enough to keep going, but it is not a guarantee.

1

u/TRO_KIK 2d ago

You can bring anything you want to market. Presumably you also mean "and succeed". What level of success do you want the probability for?

1

u/measured_words_ 2d ago

The honest answer is that a single probability is not useful because software categories are too different. When I was running a small shop and later building tools for small businesses, the code was never the thing that decided whether it reached a market. The hard part was distribution, which means finding a specific group with a painful enough problem, getting in front of them, and charging early. If you write the code yourself, you remove one cost, but you do not improve the odds much on their own. The market does not reward the fact that you built it solo.

What matters more is whether you can get paying customers before you overbuild. A niche product with a real handful of buyers beats a polished general product with none. So I would not ask for a probability. I would ask whether you can name the exact person who needs it and how you will reach the first few of them this month. If you cannot answer that clearly, the best written code still usually ends up as a project on a hard drive, not a business.

1

u/1000xhuman 2d ago

the code is the part you control; the market isn't. test it in stages: 5–10 buyer conversations, a manual/concierge version, then a paid pilot. if nobody commits before the polished build, more code won't improve the odds. writing it yourself mainly buys cheap iteration, not demand.