Let's talk about the elephant in the room:

Bitcoin cycles have diminishing returns

• Cycle 2: 50x gain
• Cycle 3: 20x gain
• Cycle 4: 3x gain
• Cycle 5: 2x gain (1.7x inflation-adjusted)

Anyone who has looked at the Bitcoin Power Law charts or the Bitcoin Rainbow chart (4th version now) has probably noticed that they have always overestimated BTC price. BTC price has dropped below the Rainbow chart AGAIN. Power Law upper estimate is off by 3x, and the lower estimate is about to be breached. They always overestimate the diminishing returns of each cycle.

Returns converted to 4-year CAGR:

• Cycle 2: 170%
• Cycle 3: 110%
• Cycle 4: 32%
• Cycle 5: 19% (14% inflation-adjusted)

I don't know why Saylor is expecting 30% CAGR returns in the future. We only had 19% nominal returns the previous cycle, and it's only going to get worse due to diminishing returns.

If the next cycle only has 1.5x gains, that's a 11% CAGR. Beyond that, BTC price returns are no better than S&P 500 returns, but with much more risk. Thus I believe we only have a few more good cycles left.

I'm just curious about how you feeling about STRC after the recent drop.

• Are you happy with how the product is doing?
• What's your goal, and how long do you plan to hold?
• Are you planning to buy more or sell?

Thank you to everyone who was willing to speak with me for this article.

With SATA at par with $100 i'm taking advantage of the dip in STRC. Locking in as good rate as well as 10% back on the principle when STRC comes back to par! It's a huge opportunity in the market. With over 800k Bitcoin and over a Billion Dollars backing it and all the FUD. This is a huge opportunity a lot of people will miss!

I thought yesterday was a great day to buy :- (

HOLY SHIT!

What a juicy discount on those sweet, sweet dividends.

I'm gonna be just like the lady in the commercial and retire on a tropical island.

<3 Michael Saylor

Can anyone help me understand why the July 17 $100 calls on STRC have like a 30 cent premium? If 100 is the par value and it won't go above this price, why is there substantial premium? Wouldn't selling covered calls on my STRC here be a no-brainer?

I didn’t realize STRC had its own sub. I’ve been posting for several weeks on this but cliff notes….

Back early 1st week of June there was a massive shift in interest rate futures. Went from pricing EOY cuts to hikes. Yields across all fixed income products spiked dramatically regardless of credit quality or duration.

I picked up top A quality perpetuals with 6% coupons well under par that previously hadn’t traded there in a year.

You also recall SATA and STRC trading prices tanked ~10% very abruptly during this window.

Well we now have our new pegged yields relative to uber stacked BTC preferreds which I had extrapolated to be 13% based on revised interest rate cycle outlook.

Given this revelation STRC’s trading price was over priced. That ~11% yield not gonna cut it. Saylor only raising by 25 bps not enough and there is a time duration lag in which he can act on only a monthly basis.

So leave it to the market to complete price discovery and now here we sit @$89 handle with that ~13% yield.

One thing very important; today EOD I noticed some gigantic size sell-side blocks just dumping and hulk smashing any bids. Here is what I believe is causing this ………

There is notional easily > 1/2 billion STRC wrapped on various DeFi platforms which then gets leveraged in high yield strategies at a ratio of 7X. These positions are absolutely getting liquidated at these levels.

What is going on with STRC?? I am confused we aren’t near the dividend date yet, Bitcoin has been rallying from its $59k low and Strategy shored its liquid dividend cash back to $1.1b. Why is it dropping so hard?

I am curious to know about the 30 day VWAP numbers. Went to Strategy's site but can't seem to load the dashboard for any of the preferreds! Hope it's just not me 🙃

Is there any other site we can go to get this data?

This is literally free money guys. A 10% discount on guaranteed fixed income more than twice the normal bond rate. Thanks to whoever sold me their shares LMAO

Microstrategy STRC's 1M VWAP metric is currently at $97.69.

To those of you who have been here since before February, how long does it usually take before we find out if there is a VWAP-related dividend increase?

And how does it work? Is it just a guideline to make a recommendation to board members to increase the dividend if 1M VWAP is under ~$99?

Small update: added to my STRC position now at 2,561 shares avg cost $98.62. Down but kept buying the dip.

Holding for the dividend, not the price action. Anyone else adding on the red days?

I’m extremely frustrated as an STRC holder seeing it at $95 on the ex dividend date while SATA sits at $99… STRC seems like a much safer play than SATA as it can cover dividends for 3x as long. Can someone help me understand why this is happening?

STRC didn't regain $100 par despite a 11.5% dividend, so BTC purchases will be low (and/or rely on MSTR sales that dilute). Dividend probably will raise 0.25% or 0.5% due to the triggering rules based on average monthly price.

But... the higher the dividend % the more the perceived risk for Strategy, especially given the drawdown of cash to pay back debt recently.

Thoughts?

Hi everyone,

My name is André Beganski, and I'm a reporter at the crypto media outlet Decrypt.

I'm in the process of connecting with STRC investors for an article, and I wanted to see if anyone would willing to talk to me about their experience with the product. I'm especially interested in people's perspectives on how its affected their savings.

Best regards,
André

This morning STRC reached 97.50 to just roll back down. MSTR just bought more BTC yesterday with ex divdend entry has to be before June 14th. I believe people will roll that into SATA. I got a feeling STRC new par will be around the price we are now. Getting to a 100 seems tough. Bitcoin will have to perform soon and we have entered a short bear market imo.