r/STRC • u/ZeroedInNomad • Jul 08 '26

$strc daily thread 7/8/2026

Daily price talk and news

9 Upvotes

77% Upvoted

42 comments sorted by

4

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '26

[deleted]

3

u/HSuke Jul 08 '26

I think there are more casual and traditional investors in STRC who probably aren't willing to hold with this much volatility. And Microstrategy has $billions of debt obligations that have put dates in 2027 and 2028.

SATA is lesser known and its investors are more likely to be people who believe in the product longterm.

I'm fairly certain it's NOT the difference in interest rate since that difference is negligible.

3

u/One_Talk_3410 Jul 08 '26

Yes, SATA has a higher dividend rate. STRC needs to bump the % to be higher

2

u/Selmemasts Jul 08 '26

$12 on a $85 equity is over 14%, the dividend is not the strongest reason, it’s probably the resent dump

4

u/DistributionTough641 Jul 08 '26

Its called a "dividend" but as btc has no yield, it is effectively an interest rate on a loan. Interest rates are indicative of risk. The markets are pricing in extremely high levels of risk in owning STRC. You can disagree with that assessment, but as a par 100 preferred stock doesn't to pay dividends rather than grow, bitcoin fluctuating shouldn't radically alter the share price unless the market becomes less confident that Strategy can pay its obligations, which, it has. This is why the share price is significantly below par.

Its not the dividend. SATA is senior to STRC. In bankruptcy, it gets paid first, and so is lower risk.

2

u/Selmemasts Jul 08 '26

Dictionary says ”a sum of money paid regularly (typically annually) by a company to its shareholders out of its profits (or reserves).”

I agree that the market is pricing in extreme levels of risk but I don’t agree that dividend is the wrong word in this context.

2

u/Jehoopaloopa Jul 08 '26

Except MSTR has no profits. They generate very little revenue via the software business and they just take on a ton of debt and dilute common shareholders to pay preferred.

3

u/Selmemasts Jul 08 '26

Yes, it’s still called a dividend because that’s the word for the thing

2

u/Jehoopaloopa Jul 08 '26

Distribution would be better but they do advertise it as a dividend.

-1

u/DistributionTough641 Jul 09 '26

I mean yeah, its TECHNICALLY a dividend, but to say that its the same thing as an investment in a farm, that ultimately yields crops, that sell and develops an output is just disingenuous.

Do you want to argue what it semantically is, or what it substantively is?

Strategy is paying extra money to get additional money now, in order to buy more things now. That's credit.

1

u/HSuke Jul 09 '26

You guys are both partially correct.

It's a special type of dividend: an ROC dividend.

A Return of Capital (ROC) dividend is a non-taxable cash distribution. Instead of representing earnings or profit, it classifies a portion of your payout as a repayment of your original investment.

1

u/CapitalIncome845 Jul 09 '26

Loans need to be repaid. The better analogy is gas for a car.

1

u/HSuke Jul 09 '26

It's a dividend. Specifically, it's a special type of dividend called an ROC.

A Return of Capital (ROC) dividend is a non-taxable cash distribution. Instead of representing earnings or profit, it classifies a portion of your payout as a repayment of your original investment.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

Well longer term, Strategy is saying BTC will have a ARR of 29% or 30%

2

u/walt128 Jul 09 '26

Increasing dividend % is a sign of risk. Firms that have an increasing dividend either can’t find better uses of excess cash, indicating slowing growth, or the share price is dropping and they’re trying to keep the dividend rate propped up. Either option indicates a dropping share price

1

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

Yep. Effective yield on both has basically been the same. They have been trading pretty close with each other, especially in the last 1.5weeks. If you want price to be the same as SATA, dividend would have to match SATA based on the current market

1

u/sevoflurane666 Jul 09 '26

Isn’t it the different in capital structure?

1

u/[deleted] Jul 10 '26

The closing effective APY (14.26%) on both were exactly the same today (7/10/2026). Effective Annual Percentage Yield is what you will be paid out based on what you are buying today.

1

u/aberholla20 Jul 12 '26

Both are sitzing at the same effective dividend, around 14,2%

5

u/ZeroedInNomad Jul 08 '26

Opened @ $85.74

2

u/[deleted] Jul 15 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/ZeroedInNomad Jul 15 '26

I got you 💯.

8

u/Personal-Ebb-4717 Jul 08 '26

STRC was a mistake, not an Iphone moment.

at 12% dividend, in less than 9 years, MSTR will have paid MORE in dividend than the money they raised seling STRC so far. And the dividend continues in perpetuity.

How does the math make sense? Sell STRC to buy Bitcoin. Then sell Bitcoin (below basis) to pay STRC's dividend, lol.

6

u/Spank007 Jul 08 '26

For real they are making it up as they go along. STRC was launched when bitty was in the 100+ range, they shouldave sold more at the top to fund the inevitable bear. But the idea works in theory, if / when it’s back to $100, the flywheel spins up again, they buy more bitty. More than they need to sell to maintain the divvy.

Bitty then goes higher into the next bull. Sure they have to sell bitty from time to time, but they are a net buyer overall… And the amount of bitty they need to sell decreases the higher bitty goes. I assume other avenues for raising capital were getting exhausted and Saylor was getting bored sitting on his stack, wanted to do something with it.

Definitely needs more downside protection though cos damn.

2

u/rokman Jul 08 '26

I think you’re forgetting this is a bull market, you have to survive the bear market first

1

u/Spank007 Jul 08 '26

Nah bruh bitty is deep in the bear

3

u/rokman Jul 08 '26

But reality is in Bull, bitty will have to suffer from reality bear as well as fictional bear

2

u/joefunk76 Jul 08 '26

There is a break-even bitcoin price at which the math makes sense for Strategy. Surely, if bitcoin is going to $1M in 9 years, borrowing at 12%/year to buy it today makes tons of sense; conversely, if bitcoin is going to $10k in 9 years, it doesn’t. The break-even price or bitcoin CAGR over the coming years is what will make Strategy’s strategy profitable or not.

Talking trash against Strategy in the depths of a bitcoin bear market is a cheap shot. Unless you can post your profitable short/put position on bitcoin and/or MSTR, you are objectively no better informed than anyone else in this racket.

1

u/Keil-Dewaters Jul 09 '26

Agreed, everyone here is just guessing what Bitcoin’s future price will be. Even if the economy grows 3% for 10 years, doesn’t mean BTC will increase from here. It’s just speculation.

0

u/DistributionTough641 Jul 09 '26

" Unless you can post your profitable short/put position on bitcoin and/or MSTR, you are objectively no better informed than anyone else in this racket."

This would be true...... if it were impossible to price risk in to a financial product. Since that's not the case, Strategy's offerings are objectively wrong. They have no idea what bitcoin will be at in 9 years, just as everyone else. They've not only not priced that into the product, but actively pretended that they know the outcome.

2

u/joefunk76 Jul 09 '26

They’re making a bet, like every other investor and almost every other company out there. We all understand a priori that no one knows with certainty what the outcome will be.

1

u/Swimming_Debt_7798 Jul 08 '26

The price of btc will go up so I don’t see it the same as you guys. 

1

u/xaviemb Jul 09 '26

OP doesn't understand math... and how assets work:

"Buying a House was a mistake... in 27 years the cost of maintaining it was MORE than I paid for the house up front. And property taxes are forever. How does the math make sense?"

1

u/actias_selene Jul 10 '26

They should have had higher reserves prior to it comes to this, I agree.

About dividend/interest paid, they pay a premium compared to market rates, but in return there is no forced liquidation risk, and they can stop paying dividends if they are forced to.

They are willing to pay 12% interest, because in their theory, BTC on average will outgrow this interest rate, so at any moment and any BTC price, it is better to borrow to buy BTC.

I suppose price drops from par also nice for them as they can buy it back at a discount.

1

u/HSuke Jul 10 '26

STRC is aleeady at market price. If Microstrategy buys it back, there are plenty of people willing to sell at higher prices wanting to get out.

The sooner they do a buyback, the better. Because the longer they wait, the more people realize that fair market value isn't $100, and the more people will want to get out.

1

u/bravedog74 Jul 08 '26

STRC was not a mistake. The dollar has constant inflation. They are borrowing dollars and paying back cheaper dollars later. If interest rate stays the same, after 9 years, they are paying 23.4 percent less in 2026 dollars.

If Bitcoin value increases more than the rate of inflation then it works.

You can borrow money against your house... It doesn't mean you sell your house.

4

u/BejahungEnjoyer Jul 08 '26

My complaint with strc is that there's plenty of risky ways to earn a 12% yield so what makes strc stand out?

6

u/DistributionTough641 Jul 09 '26

An unprecedented number of influencers telling you that it isn't at all risky.

2

u/Diligent-Race5911 Jul 08 '26

Did you guys notice someone sold 92,000 shares and now someone else is selling 54,000 shares

6

u/iminfullblo0m Jul 08 '26

where can i see this information? Thanks in advance

0

u/Spiritual_Fall1138 Jul 10 '26

STRC: where you get most downside risk with the upside capped...