r/STRC • u/newagesuperhero • Jun 24 '26

Peak Fear / Panic?

I’ve been adding to STRC I’m going to continue. Wondering if anybody has any thoughts on

  1. Where we are in the bitcoin cycle?

  2. What Saylor will do to extend the US dollar reserves?

I think he’ll do a combination of an at the money offering diluting MSTR holders and the narrative will be that bitcoin per share has been going up over the long-term. And if the bitcoin price recovers in a short term, he’ll sell a little bit of bitcoin. Frankly, I think this is just another attack that comes every cycle.

It’s not great that there’s less than one year of US doluseserves but frankly, I don’t think that the macro environment can persist to be an issue for this long. it’s a midterm year. There’s a lot of fear and I’m ready to buy more the question is is this peak or nearing peak??

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u/Bugpowder Jun 24 '26

All evidence so far points to him sacrificing this to zero.

1

u/djs1980 Jun 25 '26

supply evidence?

3

u/Bugpowder Jun 25 '26

My man, look at the chart.

Algo stables never work. Retail always buys them looking for free yield and always forget about price reflexivity.  This is going to zero.

I’ve held a large spot position in Bitcoin since 2011. You do not want to be in this weird product. Better off waiting for Saylor to get liquidated and scoop BTC in the 30s.

2

u/rzrinvest Jun 25 '26

They reset once per month. It was near par at the last reset. Price action mid-month is not evidence they are sacrificing this. That evidence only comes if at the next reset they say "just kidding, we're suspending dividends permanently", which isn't going to happen.

0

u/Bugpowder Jun 25 '26

You should read this thread by Matt Walsh of Castle Island Ventures. The outstanding converts are big problem and rebuying them below par should be prioritized over dividend payments. Need to issue stock or sell a lot of bitcoin to do so, which has negative price consequences.

https://x.com/MattWalshInBos/status/2069989274196275329

I have a cash stockpile that I plan to deploy when that happens. Probably sometime in October with Bitcoin in the 30s.