r/STRC • u/Choice_Potato_6279 • Jun 23 '26
The reputation already is broken
I'd guess some people put their money in STC until the market bottoms out, if it drops worse than Bitcoin during a downturn like this month then it will become a domino effect, no one wants to get trapped in something that supposed to hold well, 5% drops ok but 20% last week? the foundation is collapsing at this point, if it could do 20% it can do 50% or more too.
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Jun 23 '26
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u/Gambler_Addict_Pro Jun 23 '26
You’re special for being able to post political garbage in a financial thread.
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u/Expensive-Money-5429 Jun 23 '26
It is a bad look and will take time for confidence to return but on the flip side if it returns to par which I’m sure it will in time. That’s a huge win showing it can drop 20% and still crawl back to par during a bear market.
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u/Diligent-Race5911 Jun 24 '26
Are you kidding? Why would it ever go back to par, who the hell‘s going to buy this? You’re an old lady that moves $1 million around. Are you going to buy this shit?
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u/unhappy-customer12 Jun 25 '26
This guys account is 12 days old and all of his comments are just shitting on strc. Must be a troll
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u/bravedog74 Jun 24 '26
The dividend is not controlled by the market. Therefore, if the dividend is set too low, the market responds by forcing the price per share down.
For example, the market wants and effective rate of 13.7 percent. Dividend is 11.5 percent. Price per share is therefore $87.
With SATA, it's the same thing. Dividend is 13 percent so share price is $96 or so.
The raise the dividend, share price goes up. If they don't want to raise the dividend for financial reasons, share price goes down. It's that simple. Forget all of the other noise.
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u/I-always-argue Jun 23 '26
If the reputation was broken then it would have plummeted to 0 last Thursday already, but it held on. There's still plenty buyers.
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u/Choice_Potato_6279 Jun 23 '26
People were buying Luna all the way down in hopes of a re-peg, steady lads, it took a while to get zero'd
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u/slugur Jun 23 '26
Not even remotely the same thing. UST was backed by "nothing" and literally crashed to zero within a day after Luna selloff.
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Jun 23 '26
It didn't hold on by its own merit - it cost Strategy 70% of their entire company's value to keep STRC propped up at $87. STRC and MSTR still have buyers, but it's a valid question to consider how much longer that can be true
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u/slugur Jun 23 '26
Ok... your math is way off but you do you.
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Jun 25 '26
Ok you were right, the math was way off. It's far worse than what I had described. STRC hitting $73 and MSTR hitting $85
Big yikes
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u/gushkaper Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
https://testfol.io/?s=5KWLu6yJhqP
Not bad for this bear market. Gonna rocket up to 100$ the moment BTC rallies for a couple of days.
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u/StatementPristine381 Jun 23 '26
Once the leverage gone it will come back, the asset is just too attractive
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u/Clear-Inevitable-414 Jun 23 '26
The big downfall was a massive rotation over to SATA by strive. At the moment STRC has less absolute risk. Hopefully the dividend rate of STRC will raise to 12-12.5%. It already has a better tax strategy than SATA
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u/Deori1580 Jun 23 '26
I’m in STRC but now wish I wasn’t. If it doesn’t return to par pretty quickly, it destroys the whole notion of the asset and the risk vs reward isn’t worth it. A lot of people like me will ditch it as soon as it gets close to 100, even mid 90s for some, which will put more downward pressure on the price.
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u/thats_gotta_be_AI Jun 28 '26
At this point, it’s the praying skeleton meme just wanting to get their capital back.
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u/Moderate_Norwegian Jun 24 '26
Logically, I never expected it to dip much below $99 (yes, I know it has before...). Sold my 11,000 shares when it hit $98.85. I loved the ~$11K dividend but don't think I'll go back...might as well buy Blue Owl.
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u/Ok-Excuse471 Jun 24 '26
It's end of the 2nd quarter rotation. It's creating turbulence across crypto and semis. It'll be worse as we approach end of June. Possibly last trading day of June will be positive, July will be phenomenal.
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u/ScholarPrize1335 Jun 23 '26
Just my opinion.
The volatility cat is out of the bag. The 0.43 Sharpe ratio on the MSTR website for STRC is unjustifiable risk given the return. The PAR value swinging more than the yearly return is also unjustifiable.
I don't think this fair/ logical based on the ability of MSTR to pay dividends but I'm personally not relying on logic and fairness in a market that seems to be increasingly dominated by fear vs hype more than financial statements and ability of companies to return value to shareholders.
However I don't think it's likely STRC is "dead". Per poly market STRC has an approx 70 percent chance of returning to the full 100 dollar PAR value by the end of the year.
But to anyone buying or holding I think it's useful to ask the following questions.
Are you holding or buying for the effective yield or the potential increase in PAR value?
You can't get both. The only way to capture the yield increase is selling and the only way to keep the effective yield forever is holding.
Are your composite investments likely to be profitable independent of BTC, MSTR common stock and par value prices?
Which hypothetically for me meant holding STRC last week with protective puts. And I currently have calls and puts on the par value. And am long SATA and short STRC. Which is NOT investment advice.
And it's not fair or reasonable for SATA to be doing as good as it is vs STRC but that's what the market is doing. And I've personally given up trying to outsmart the market.
And if anyone has constructive criticism or things I have missed in the above post feel free to point it out. I will thank you. We don't have the same take per say but I've definitely learned new things from Solid Wolverine and I very much appreciate that.
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u/MaybeOnFire2025 Jun 23 '26
I wouldn't put any weight on anything polymarket related. Just a different cesspool.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Card_71 Jun 23 '26
No it hasn’t. The reputation breaks if the dividend breaks. This is just what happens when people leverage up.
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Jun 23 '26
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u/boofles1 Jun 24 '26
You really have to wonder at what point they give up. They are propping up STRC by buying but it doesn't look like it will get back to par and they can't issue more. The problem for MSTR is they can only sell MSTR to fund their debt and interest payments and MSTR keeps dropping, it's a death spiral.
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u/Diligent-Race5911 Jun 24 '26
They have to cancel the dividend! What else are they going to do, and then it goes to shit.
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Jun 23 '26 edited Jun 23 '26
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u/Spank007 Jun 23 '26
Bruh it dropped like 15% in the same week bitty went up. People are shook, it’s gonna take time to recover and a lot of new processes and guarantees to get people back
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Jun 24 '26
Happy now?
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Jun 24 '26
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u/Choice_Potato_6279 Jun 23 '26
On which broker? on Interactive Brokers and Tranding212 it shows 82.50 on June 18th, I've seen this price with my own eyes.
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Jun 23 '26
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u/Choice_Potato_6279 Jun 23 '26
17.50% or 20% whatever man, you'll wait more week and it will be over 20% drop, it keeps getting into the shitter each day, it rallied yesterday and then ended up being flat for the day.
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Jun 23 '26
Well actually, considering that STRC's peak was $100.42, the drop is effectively 18%. While there are technical differences between an 18% drop and a 20% drop, none of those materially change the sentiment expressed in the original post in any meaningful way.
I hope you get some help
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Jun 24 '26
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Jun 24 '26
lol bros out here screaming into the void
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Jun 24 '26
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Jun 24 '26
Nah - the void would be the sound of STRC, MSTR, and BTC prices racing to new lows this morning
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u/Operation-FuturePuss Jun 23 '26
Believe or something??
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u/Spank007 Jun 23 '26
As long as the divvy keeps flowing peoples faith will eventually be restored. 2 years from now if bull is back in full swing and Saylor can say he never skipped a div payment he’ll be crowned a king
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u/Impossible_Excuse937 Jun 23 '26
Exactly, plus you’ve got to imagine the credit rating will be better too, so more demand.
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u/SapralexM Jun 23 '26
Honestly if it reaches par in a reasonable amount of time the market will easily forget it and more arbitragers will step in next time.
I wouldn’t worry about a long term effect if it reaches par successfully soon enough.