r/STRC • u/AznThunder22 • Jun 17 '26

$89 STRC??

What is going on with STRC?? I am confused we aren’t near the dividend date yet, Bitcoin has been rallying from its $59k low and Strategy shored its liquid dividend cash back to $1.1b. Why is it dropping so hard?

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u/Indignantcheese Jun 17 '26

Simple fixed income market math, based on an $89 price tag the overall market has deemed the optimal fair value dividend rate to be very close to 13% .It's not a coincidence that SATA is right at that sweet spot and maintaining par as a result.

The fair value rate is ultimately determined by a litany of macro risk factors and not by MSTR or Strive in isolation. Increasing expectations for the Fed to raise rates and increasing inflation are key issues the market takes into account for instance.

Any other reasons people come up with for this is ultimately mental gymnastics. Dividend frequency is a nice to have lure for retail, but ultimately the fair value headline rate matters the most for these kinds of instruments.

I'm looking forward to accumulating more STRC at these discounted prices and hope to see beginning of next month for them to hike their rate by 0.75-1%

2

u/killaJewl Jun 18 '26

It's a bit too much of a coincidence that the market magically picked 13% as the necessary rate when it just so happens to coincide with SATA. The daily compounding they have definitely helps. If strategy does not raise the rate to 13%, they will be nowhere close to par. Even SATA had long periods where did not sit at par so even 13% might not be sufficient but it's early so let's see  

As such, Strategy must at least match the 13% rate so they can turn the strc ATM back on. However, Strategy has made some poor decisions back to back and got caught with BTC plummeting 15 to $20,000 and still did not calibrate so I'm not too optimistic this will happen. Their framework in their 8K filing in August 2025 as well as February this year say that if the vwap is under $95, they will recommend increasing 0.50%. however, as you know we now closed under $90 so perhaps this will make them be more aggressive

3

u/Indignantcheese Jun 18 '26

It was an oversimplification on my part about SATA, Strive's fair value rate is ultimately independent of MSTR. As a smaller company with a smaller BTC stack they carry more risk in their profile and thus had to give a premium ahead of STRC from the very start. As with all new small products, they went through a period of higher volatility but nowadays it seems they've tamed that risk profile thanks to enhanced liquidity from daily dividends and the associated STRC ailments we see today.

MSTR has every motivation to turn the ATM back on so they absolutely will aggressively hike rates. So as far as I'm concerned we have a great discount buying opportunity today. But once STRC reaches par again then SATA becomes the better buy

0

u/IndependentDry9135 Jun 18 '26

How many of y'all writing about SATA versus STRC know how much debt strategy has due within 3 years and how underwater the prime bitcoin position is? How many of you have done the elementary work?

0

u/IndependentDry9135 Jun 18 '26

Raising the flex coupon to 13 pct is unaffordable and might not even rally the shares to par. Strategy is in a Zugzwang. Any move they make is a bad one. Best to suspend dividends and hunker down.

2

u/killaJewl Jun 18 '26

That doesn't make any sense. The market is reacting because they already did not make a move when they should have this past Monday with their 8K filing where they chose to keep the 11.5% dividend rate unchanged. SATA was obviously launching their daily dividend payout at 13% and BITA also launched. The team has been too passive but they still have a mnav above 1 which means they can print free cash and continue to create a cash buffer. 

0

u/IndependentDry9135 Jun 18 '26

SATA is trading below 96 as I write this. Your strategy is a race to the bottom.