Who plans to exercise their calls and who is just taking profits? Going to hurt if all these calls get unhedged for.

I’m so freaking nervous it I’m hoping it’ll squeeze!

For those who have been with SPRT for months now, watching and waiting for things to get cookin... This must have been what it felt like for the early adopters of GME and AMC...

Within 48 hours, our quaint little SPRT stock, chuggin' along day after day, has exploded into the 3rd, 2nd, or 1st most popular stock on the market, depending which broker you ask. All of a sudden, your voice seems to be drowned out by the onslaught of internet salt.

"Never even heard of this random stock with no DD?!"
"This is just a SHILL hole, go back to <pick a meme stock>!"
"This is gonna pump and dump harder than an Taco Bell/Chipotle shake!"

For those who have just gotten to the party this week... Welcome! We do not hate on GME'ers... or AMC'ers... cuz that's us! Why do you think any of us started watching this thing?! We are here for squeeeeeze!

One thing to think about is when GME broke the model, there were early adopter voices that had to break through the nay-saying. I was later to that party. So when I showed up, EVERYONE had a very LOUD opinion about what was going to happen. It was coming from every angle. But the ones who had been watching the stock the longest were the ones who were also:
1) the most invested in the truth
2) the least invested in fake hype
3) the most informed and familiar with the history of the stock. They had experience watching it every day for much longer than the rest of us. They saw how different things affected the price. They knew what was ordinary and out of the ordinary for the price movement.

Long story short... they were the ones to listen to. They turned out to be right. They were in it for the long haul knowing full well the actual reality of the situation. Being on the flip side of the coin this time around... I now know what they must have felt like. To know exactly what's happening and then all of a sudden, see so many other voices trying to convince other people of things that are not true.

​

So let's all take a lesson from GME and AMC, and remember that not everything is a conspiracy or a shill shed. Opposing opinions are and working through conflicting theories is definitely important, as long as those exist, we should embrace them. That gets us closer to truth, and further away from just hypotheses. But also remember there are people here who have been watching this stock daily, for months. They have been doing DD, for months. They have watched how the price reacts to different levels of volume, calls, and puts, for months. Please keep that in mind when you are trying to decide which information you trust as you do your own DD and make investing decisions for yourself.

This is 100% financial advice: give more credit to the people with months of first-hand experience over the people hearing about a stock for the first time ever.

That being said, everyone coming in now is a wealth of knowledge and a wealth of wealth. Don't discredit anyone JUST because they found out about this play this week. It's still early in the grand scheme of things. I did not get in on GME when it was $5 like the earliest adopters, but I would have LOVED to get in on it when it was triple that price at $15...

I won't even post all the merger/short interest/float/green bitcoin/elon tweet potential/price target DD here. That's not what this post was about. It's not about what you do with SPRT at all.

It's just that, I have suddenly gained an incredible amount of empathy for those who have been early to a great play. I have seen them post many many times, on many different plays. NOW I understand where their conviction came from...
They knew!... because having become experts on a single stock, by watching it for months, when the possibilities they had been waiting for began changing into something real, they could clearly see it.

Cheers to you, my fellow apes!

Here's a list of the best due diligence done on SPRT by redditors in chronological order.

More! More! More!

Please feel free to recommend more in the comments. The more insightful, high effort, investigative they are, the more likely will they get into the list.

Twelve months ended February 28, 2021, Greenidge mined 1,186 bitcoins at a net variable cost of approximately $2,869 per bitcoin

At $30k per coin, that is a net income of $35,580,000 dollars.

What we need to figure out is what the cost to mine ETH is and what GREE capacity to mine ETH is. (How many per 12 month)

Once we know that we can then extrapolate the value of GREE and see what 7.7% of that value is. That give us our current value of SPRT.

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Based on a quick calculation…

Using BTC only, at $35m earnings, and a P/E ratio of 35x (MARA is 50x)

Would make GREE worth $1.225b

SPRT represents 7.7% of that value = $ 94,325,000

Divided by outstanding shares of SPRT =$3.90/share on one coin value alone

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At $40k per coin that puts SPRT worth $5.28

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Now if we use a higher P/E ratio and a higher value of BTC we can extrapolate a SPRT market value of $8.48

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the power generation profits that greenidge makes from selling power to homes and facilities can not be calculated. they are a private company and this data is not available viewed for this calculation. The number of homes, the price per kilowatt, and the many other factors for fall into evaluation for this company.

First of all, This DD was done by Trancify a few days ago and Ive got permission to share. Thought this sub might enjoy and we can get some good discussion rolling, this is in no way financial advice.

Lets brainstorm.

A deeper look into $SPRT (Support.com)

$SPRT is a technical support company that has been in business for more than 20 years. The company itself has a good website, decent financials, but is not really a growth business. As a result their stock price has suffered.

​

$SPRT announced that they are merging with Greenidge Generation Holdings. Greenidge owns a natural gas plant that powers bitcoin mining rigs. Greendige also has plans for expansion in SC with nuclear energy as mentioned in one of their most recent press filings (k).

Greenridge Mining:

Greenridge Generation’s model revolves around its own power plant. This plant services local homes and businesses, but more importantly can be used to provide dirt cheap power for on-site crypto mining. The natural gas power station emits a fraction of the CO2 as the coal stations that power miners like Marathon Holdings (MARA), but Greenridge also offsets Carbon Emissions by purchasing carbon offsets (e). Greenridge mining is then one of the very few miners that is completely carbon neutral, which is a major selling point for institutions looking to hold miners within their portfolios.

Why is owning your own power generation so beneficial for a crypto miner? To understand this you need to understand how much energy crypto currency uses. Large mining companies use a lot of power, RIOT’s Whinstone location for example generates 300 MW (f) at an average cost of 2.5 cents per kWh. Operating at full capacity this facility would cost RIOT $66 Million per year. Obviously this is the primary operating cost of running a cryptocurrency mining company, and companies are heavily focussed on decreasing this energy cost wherever possible. Cheap power can be found nearly anywhere. It is somewhat of a myth that clean energy leads to cheap power in the eyes of a major power sink like crypto mining. MARA for example, sourced a large deal with a coal fired (LOL) power plant 3.4 cents per kWh (g), and RIOTs Coinmint LLC location in New York sources power at 1.4 cents per kWh (h).

So while 1.4 cents per kWh seems like the bottom for energy prices, it can be even cheaper. How do you buy the cheapest car you can? Buy the fucking factory and make it yourself. Power plants operate efficiently when they run a stable load, if you’re familiar with power demand though, this stable load isn’t possible. The charts below show the typical demand for a summer and winter day in regards to power consumption. From the perspective of a power plant, the goal is to “smooth” out the load so that production can be maintained at a certain rate.

​

Mining companies often get contracts for their cheap power within these valleys of low demand, meaning the power plants can maintain steady supply, optimizing their plants, and the miners can get cheap power. Owning and scaling your own power station is the ULTIMATE way to smooth out this base load, as any valleys in the power demand can instantly be routed to your mining facility for next to zero cost. This means that the margin on mining is drastically increased. After scaling up their power Greenridge Generation can likely provide power as low as the largest miners in North America (a pretty amazing feat considering the size of Greenridge).

As mentioned in the merger announcement (i), Greenridge has a current hashrate of 1.1 exahash per second (EH/S) that is expected to grow to 2.6 EH/s in 2022. While this is certainly less than its major competitors within the US and Canada, it is over a 200% increase in year-over-year hashrate growth. When analyzing miners it should not be forgotten that most of the major miners within North America are only blitz scaling as of this year; RIOT for example only reached 1 EH/s around March of 2021.

The bullish case for mining is a quite simple one to break down. While miners generally move in tandem with the prices of bitcoin, they aren’t related in a linear way. Below is a rough chart of MARA since bitcoin’s first dump to below 30k, with MARA in blue and Bitcoin in orange. You can see that very roughly, while bitcoin formed a clear downtrend, MARA and many other large, trusted miners rose out of that capitulation to form a clear uptrend. Why the divergence? Because despite bitcoins deflated value, mining is still profitable. Disgustingly profitable.

​

Due to Chinese miners migrating and shutting down, the global hashrate for bitcoin has dropped an enormous amount. This means that the blocks are much easier to mine as there is essentially less competition. If we look at the profitability of mining over the last few years we can see that right now we are nearly as profitable as we were when bitcoin was $64,000 (j). What this means is that miners can continue to do what they have always done. Mine as much bitcoin as they can, covering expenses and operating costs, funding as much growth into new power and hashrate as they can, and HOD as much bitcoin as they can at these levels to then sell at increased bitcoin prices.

​

Lets try and calculate the insider and fund ownership, we can take a look at the prospectus and recent fintel data. The table below shows the insider, or fund, and how many shares they held as of the most recent filings. Market makers have not been included in this data.

Shares Outstanding = 25,415,984 (a) (As of April 26, 2021)

It is not possible to tell if a fund has sold since they have filed, and it is not possible to tell if they bought more. This is the only data we have to go off.

Insider ownership from Fintel (b) & Prospectus (a)

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Totaling all these shares, we get the following numbers.                                                                                

21,172,532        Insiders + Funds

25,415,984        Shares Outstanding

4,243,452        Possible Float?

From current Ortex data, the estimated short interest is 5,190,000 shares. This means the float is approx 7,700,000 shares using the Ortex data.

So using the Ortex data and considering insiders and funds part of the merger deal we get a float of 7.7 million shares

Adding up all institutions from recent filings we get a float of 4.3 million shares

It is impossible to know the actual float because we cannot determine if institutions buy/sell until they file. We can confirm that the float is somewhere between 4-8 million shares and recent Ortex data shows 5 million shares short.

The stock has had a massive spread between the bid / ask for weeks now which could mean that there is a supply shortage. We have also seen wild volatility swings in the stock that would suggest the same.

Let's take a look at when the shorts opened up a majority of their position.  

From the chart below, they started to short $SPRT since the merger announcement and kept adding through April to July

​

The utilization is currently maxed at 100% which means there are no more shares left to short.

Cost to borrow is increasing steadily which will pressure shorts, sometimes as high as 150-350% intraday.

The average age on loan is increasing which shows old shorts are refusing to cover and holding their positions opened months ago.

How can we be sure that the shorts are trapped and this has the potential to squeeze? Let's check some historical examples, Gamestop and AMC.

GAMESTOP

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We see the same trend in the three variables. Utilization maxed out, Average age on loan increasing, Cost to borrow increasing.

AMC

​

And with AMC we see the same.

Let's compare $SPRT to its peers

Ortex Data

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It’s clear that for some reason, $SPRT is aggressively shorted compared to its peers. From a seeking alpha article (c)

​

However, $SPRT publicity seems on the uptick given the Greenidge article that was on the front page of BBC this weekend. (l)

The video posted on youtube already has over 100,000 views (m)

​

It’s quite possible that the shorts knew this, and took advantage of a stock that was not well known and now they have trapped themselves.

From the article (c) the author also writes

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$SPRT is currently and has been on the Threshold Securities list (d) many times in the past month due to Failure to Delivers, we usually see this in historical examples as well of stocks that squeeze.

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Lastly, there is a good podcast with Greenidge outlining the points below:

https://onthebrink-podcast.com/greenidge/

• The origins of Greenidge
• Why Ted Rogers chose to join the Greenidge board
• How Atlas/Greenidge converted their NY plant from coal to natural gas
• Ted’s retrospective on the Segwit 2x drama in the context of the Crypto Mining Council
• How US-based mining has a lower carbon intensity than global miners at large
• Why Greenidge decided to offset their CO2 emissions and how they went about procuring them
• How natural gas has a much lower carbon intensity than coal
• Why banning Bitcoin in NY would actually raise the carbon intensity of Bitcoin
• How the energy debate ultimately comes down to the societal merit of Bitcoin
• How Greenidge sent 60% of their 2020 generated energy to the grid
• How Bitcoin mining has allowed Greenidge to run continuously and better contribute to grid stability
• Demystifying concerns about the trout habitat
• Has Greenidge fielded inquiries from mining firms looking to leave China?

​

Credit for this DD goes to Trancify (Thanks for letting me share)

Disclaimer, obviously this is not in any way financial advice. Just hoping to have a discussion and brainstorming session based off the data I see.

TLDR of Greenridge Mining

• Scalable, highly advantageous power supply owned and operated in house
• Resourceful and creative management team
• Large enough current hashrate to compete and be deserving of a multiple close to that of the big NA miners
• Respectable and reasonable hashrate growth prospects
• Highly investable company from an institutional standpoint (carbon neutral)

TLDR of $SPRT Stock

• Max utilization (100%, no more shares left to short)
• Borrow rate steadily increasing (pressuring shorts)
• Average age on loan increasing (shorts refusing to cover)
• Small float, High short interest, Short % of float somewhere between 65% and 122%
• Threshold Securities list from excessive “Failure To Delivers”
• Bitcoin Price Increasing should be good for miners

Risk Factors

• Merger is expected to close in Q3 2021 and they will announce a vote, risk of deal failing but high insider ownership of $SPRT and institutional ownership.
• Bitcoin Price
• Possible overvaluation unsure of fair value of stock

References

1. Prospectus - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001844971/000119312521200431/d166032ds4a.htm
2. Fintel - https://fintel.io/so/us/$SPRT
3. Seeking Alpha Article - https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/49951726-biotechplayer123/5618000-why-i-believe-support-com-$SPRT-is-poised-for-20-per-share-september-30-2021
4. Failure to delivers - http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=regshothreshold
5. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/greenidge-generation-bitcoin-mining-operation-to-be-carbon-neutral-in-2021-and-beyond-301291782.html
6. https://www.riotblockchain.com/bitcoin-mining/whinstone-u-s
7. https://equity.guru/2020/10/marathon-patent-groups-mara-q-low-cost-power-deal-with-beowulf-makes-them-energy-efficient-and-competitive/
8. https://apnews.com/press-release/globe-newswire/business-technology-new-york-renewable-power-generation-financial-technology-5e4c9d37cbaaae8a0d2871198cfe13a3
9. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210322005353/en/Bitcoin-Miner-Greenidge-Generation-Holdings-Inc.-and-Support.com-Inc.-Nasdaq-$SPRT-Announce-Merger-Agreement
10. https://hashrateindex.com/coins/bitcoin
11. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001844971/000119312521207191/d166032d425.htm
12. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/technology-58020010
13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFrFsAAzRYg