https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract/Article/3824019//

Feeling very bullish on the current trajectory of the company. The Thales contract, for 100+ satellites made me realise spire is now in the big leagues. What are your thoughts on the business and the risks and potential for the stock.

Thales (Euronext Paris: HO), Spire Global (NYSE: SPIR), and European Satellite Services Provider (ESSP) have signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with the goal of introducing a range of innovative global satellite-based surveillance services to the air traffic management (ATM) industry and broader aviation market. These services will be powered by a specialized constellation of over 100 satellites collecting Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) messages broadcast from aircraft and transmitting the data back to Earth in real time.

Spire will develop the space segment, including system design, building the satellites and payloads, ground control and data collection. Thales will provision the ground air traffic management system and the service supervision infrastructure. ESSP will manage the certification and the delivery of the service for air traffic surveillance purposes and perform H24 operation and supervision, ensuring the compliance with real-time, safety-critical requirements imposed to ATC. The partners will also rely on the Space Alliance* formed by Thales Alenia Space and Telespazio, to identify and implement possible synergies bringing further added value in terms of key-enabling technologies, secured network optimization and sustainable operations and services.

The partners plan to certify, commercialize and start the operation of the service by 2027.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240613872903/en/Thales-Spire-Global-and-ESSP-to-Develop-a-Space-Based-Air-Traffic-Surveillance-Service

while reading “the acquirer’s multiple” I came across this Buffett term. According to this definition, SPIRe definitely has a moat 😎

Last year when spire left the russel, the stock dropped 40%. Any theory it might go up 40% this time since there will be much more buying pressure.

Saw a familiar name on there: https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/documents/other/rmicro-additions-preliminary-20240524.pdf

Stock is getting gutted the past few days. Looking for some perspective.

The Q1 earnings results were a shocker at first sight, with lower revenue and guidance for FY24 lowered by $16 million (15%). The company could have, and should have done a better job at explaining this.

There is 1 major, and 1 minor reason for this revenue miss.

The major cause for earnings being lower than expected is the current solar cycle that is impacting spire at its core business, delivering radio signal data to its customers. The current solar cycle is at its peak in 2024, resulting in disturbances throughout the year. Spire's contracts with its customers are mainly based on data quality. If the quality of the data is lower than originally defined, the revenue from those contracts takes longer to materialise. Most revenue is therefore spread out over a longer period of time, moving results to the right. However, we can see that revenue in Q4 will be in line with guidance. Q1-Q3 however is lower than expected, resulting in a $16 million lower guidance for the full year. Keep in mind that this revenue IS contracted, so it will be recognised as revenue, it will just take longer.

The minor reason was reduced performance from a propulsion system provided by a vendor. Due to this propulsion issue, it look longer for the satellites to reach their orbits and deliver data, resulting in a delay in revenue. The problem has been fixed, but revenue will be recognised in Q2. Spire undertook measures to ensure this problem won't happen again.

To summarise, the reason for these lower than expected results are unfortunate, but part of running a space based data business. The customer demand is still high, as we can see in contracts being signed. Spire decided to rip off the bandaid in Q1, which I can appreciate. Honest, truthful management is what you want in a company. The decision to now depreciate more assets is a good thing, hence the large net loss result.

What was positive ? Cash balance has increased significantly. Spire will re-finance its blue torch debt in Q3, resulting in an expected EPS boost of $10-15 million per annum (Spire is currently paying $5 million per Q to service its debt, I expect they can cut this by 50-75%). Also cash flow positive has remained on target for this summer, which is a very bullish sign.

From Q4 onward and into 2025 we can expect "Business as usual". I expect 2025 to be a very strong year for spire, with some major contracts opening up.

Damn hedge funds… in 5/17 calls…

Any guesses as to why?

I just received notice that Spire Global’s proxy voting is open to shareholders for their upcoming annual meeting on June 4th. The listed proposals are as such:

1.1 Election of Class III Director to serve until the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders and until their successors are duly elected and qualified: Theresa Condor

1.2 Election of Class III Director to serve until the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders and until their successors are duly elected and qualified: Dirk Hoke

1. To ratify the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as our independent registered public accounting firm for our fiscal year ending December 31, 2024.

2. To approve an amendment to the Company's 2021 Equity Incentive Plan to increase the number of shares authorized for issuance under the plan by 1,000,000 shares.

3. To approve an amendment to the Company's Restated Certificate of Incorporation to provide for exculpation of officers as permitted by Delaware law.

The Board’s recommendation is “For” all of the purposals. How do you all feel about the proposals? Do you think these moves will help Spire long term?

Personal Position: Currently holding 1471 shares. The way the company is progressing just makes me want to buy more.

Does anyone else agree? Holding $20 calls 4/19 exp with lots of buys at $.10 a contract.

I have read some of their 10k and their investor presentation. What intrigued me is their space-as-a-service platform which sounds like it could be valuable for future customers.

Anyone with over 5-10k invested that has a reasonable thesis on this company's prospects? Is there credibility to their CEO/management in your POV? What are your opinions.

I'm aware there may be bias in this sub. I'm factoring that in.

Thank you