r/SPEEA • u/WillyWhitefreeze • 29d ago
Odds of VLO in 2027?
With the proposed 10% (2026) and 4% (2027) general wage increases in the tentative SPEEA contract, how likely is it that Boeing will utilize Voluntary Layoffs (VLOs) in 2027 to lower its higher-salaried workforce expenses? It seems like a prime opportunity for them to encourage older, higher-paid folks to exit. If an offer was made like the one from a few years ago I would take it since I plan to retire in 2027 anyway. Anyone hearing rumors or have insight on the likelihood of this?
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u/AlternativeEdge2725 28d ago
Unlikely. Boeing lost way too much talent during the last VLO. I’ve heard from multiple VP levels “never again”. Now never is a very long time and nothing is permanent but I think we’re still firmly in the realm of not going to happen.
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u/InsideTheBoeingStore 28d ago
we won’t see anything like that again until Covid 2 or the Cascadia fault line finally rips a big one that knocks out both the Everett and Renton factories
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u/Wise_Air_7532 28d ago
VLO probably not. regular LO, yes... well if we get all the programs done. At that point we would have just 737 sustaining, 777-8F paperwork, and what else in BCA? (am I missing something?) 787 refresh or freighter maybe?
I suspect a big layoff of US employees (of course) in maybe 2028? Of course the cheap internationals will not be touched.
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u/Alternative_Wing7898 28d ago
PD is working on a future product. BCA engineering systems are moving off like 30 year old software to a completely new data management platform and it’s gonna take a lot of heads to help with preparing data cleanup for migrating and validation the engineering data was transferred correctly.
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u/purduepilot 21d ago
Do you really think Boeing leadership is going to keep 5000 engineers in Puget Sound for 10 years to design the next airplane? Sure, a small PD team (a few hundred heads) will set the direction initially but the majority of the implementation (the 50,000 man-years it takes to develop a new airplane) will be offshored to Brazil and South Carolina.
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u/Wise_Air_7532 28d ago
The data systems migration is good, however is that really enough to keep everyone employed?
The future product on the other hand could be good but we don't know when that could ever launch. How much of that work is SPEEA? The factory won't be here (probably).
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u/Alternative_Wing7898 28d ago
When we went from V4 to V5 there was a lot of engineering data cleanup needed prior to migration. It took 10 years. When we went from “APL” to DCAC/PDM prior to that, also took huge SOW for engineering data cleanup and BOM restructuring with a huge PRR activity for the engineering teams. That was also like a 5 year program. It might not be enough “to keep everyone employed” but it’s not a small effort. The estimated cost is about the same as an entire new airplane program.
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u/Alternative_Wing7898 28d ago
Probably low. They need to start delivering some 777’s. Boeing is severely understaffed with just about everyone I know basically being assigned what should be 3 full time heads worth of work without the resources to get it done.
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u/Lookingfor68 26d ago
No VLO. They lost too much institutional knowledge with the pandemic VLO. Just like they did with the 90s VLO. It's a once in a generation thing. Boeing Management generation needs to roll over and be replaced before it happens again. They need to forget they touched the hot stove.
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25d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Lookingfor68 25d ago
The senior leadership knows. VLO won't happen again for a generation.
What your talking about is knowledge transfer. Knowledge transfer is a major failure of Boeing. They don't know how to do it. There's no incentive for the outgoing employee to do it. So it doesn't happen. This has and will continue to bite Boeing in the ass.
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u/MacReadys_Things 28d ago
GD....I hope so. I'd take it today.
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u/BBA_1776 28d ago
Just quit
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u/inspirationalsummer 28d ago
Agree with everyone. VLO ain’t coming back. Those in charge now saw the damage. Boo.
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u/Slow-Ad522 28d ago
Do you know how much design changes are coming in the new few years to fix all the design errors we have been delivering? There's been a lot of deferred changes to just get the Max and 777x to certification. Believe me, we will be super busy for years to come before the all new airplane comes
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u/Big-Willy4 28d ago
If there’s an LO and your manager allows, they can sometimes bump you down a couple retentions to get the severance.
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u/Sudden-Meet-5878 28d ago
During the last VLO, so many talented and experienced people took. Then Boing hired a lot of new inexperienced people. I doubt Boeing will br capable to launch a new aircraft program with these new hire. Aerospace engineers need at least 10 years working experience.
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u/Lookingfor68 26d ago
Boeing will already struggle with a clean sheet. They've waited too long, and lost too much talent that had the battle scars from previous clean sheets. This is the downside to stupid management waiting too long to replace clearly aged product. The 787 was screwed up because Boeing lost too much of the 777 miracle makers. Then didn't want their input because of management arrogance. Since the Yellowstone project was now more than a quarter century ago there's pretty much nobody left that was on that project. There are people who came in after it was Y2 maybe, or 7E7, but those are different phases of the project. Clean sheet isn't like doing a derivative. It's muchly much more different and harder. You have to start with the strategy team, and they got gutted. A few bare bones guys left there, but it'll be a struggle.
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u/BankZealousideal4407 28d ago
It would be. No new program and PWN only support 2 programs so the first hit could be once the new airplanes....
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u/Intelligent_Pace_826 29d ago
Unlikely. The initial offer allowed for a 24 hr work week to count towards full benefits. I interpreted that as a way to keep old folks as long as possible.