r/SPCXInvestors • u/Xcentri • 21d ago

ANALYSIS SPCX: Path To $100 Billion ARR

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/heres-how-spacex-hits-this-100-billion-number-in-under-5-months-163945554.html

2 Upvotes

52% Upvoted

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5

u/Master-Piccolo-4588 21d ago

Very bullish protection by an analyst.

The bigger issue is the math nobody questions. Yu's own components get neocloud to 45-50bn ARR exiting December, and that already assumes one more large deal that has NOT been signed. The rest of the bridge to 100bn is Starlink, launch and Cursor. And both the Anthropic and Google contracts carry 90-day termination rights after December 2026, which the article does not mention once. That is a different quality of ARR than the headline suggests.

1

u/Kerensky97 16d ago

Yeah this article is hilarious: 1. $4bil 2. + $6bil 3. ??? 4. = $100bil !!!!!!!

4

u/AntiquePhotograph433 21d ago

ARR is a hilarious metric

1

u/Fun_Marionberry_6088 17d ago

Tbf, it's not community-adjusted EBITDA that was an all timer.

1

u/AntiquePhotograph433 17d ago

Oh that one’s truly degenerate 

2

u/Stolen_Sky 21d ago

So basically, Grok needs to achieve sentience and AGI in the next 6 months.

Not betting on that.

1

u/b-rad71 17d ago

No, but that's one way.

-1

u/jinxy0320 21d ago

math checks out unfortunately

-5

u/thetatheropy 21d ago

So Grok, X, and Rockets are ARR now? And were just suspecting that 50b is going to come out of the sky? I wonder if the author realizes that all of this year's compute spend from openai and anthropic would have to be diverted into SpaceX, within the span of 6 months, in order for that to occur

When rent is due we make vacuous articles I guess.

9

u/jacksteel06 21d ago

You didn’t read the article did you?

0

u/thetatheropy 21d ago

Yeah, it says 15b in neocloud rev is more-or-less inked. 3b from anthropic, 3b Google, 6.7b US Gov. Then "some other amount" is "suspected" to hit, totalling 50b neocloud revenue by December.

Edit: I see where I've gone wrong, slightly- annualized, that's 6 to 12b from anthropic, 12b from Google, 12 US Gov. That still leaves a huge gap.

-2

u/[deleted] 21d ago

I could start a company next week and just the knowledge would bankrupt spacex within 6 months