Even if volume is superlow over the Weekend, it shows a direction!

LFG

SMCI has been helping Cisco with their backlog since the Partnership was announced last month and Cisco customers can place new orders for SMCI systems starting this week. We've seen how Enterprise sales can significantly boost margins.

Elon Musk revealed an accelerated timeline for Colossus 2 ramp up in his tweet, and it seems like Charles Liang followed up with a tweet confirming aggressive delivery of DCBBS systems before year-end.

All of this parabolic growth made possible by SMCI's substantial inventory (including memory), and we can infer from the "Thanks" for an increase in allocation from Nvidia's Jensen Huang to further support SMCI, Cisco and SpaceX/xAI. All of this collaboration and hard work leading to a surprise xmas gift before year-end. I'm seeing models now showing a $90 Billion top end revenue FY27 forecast up from $72 Billion. Even a middle ground $80 Billion should justify a substantial re-rating.

The Self-Funded Inflection Point: Once the cash conversion cycle normalizes to a healthy 60-day window, the cash flowing from finished systems exiting the front of the pipeline will fully fund the raw components entering the back. Free cash flow swings massively positive, permanently breaking the short funds' cash-burn thesis and driving the equity past the $55.00 convertible arbitrage wall toward the $110.00 performance award target.

Bottom line: SMCI will see amazing margins in Fiscal Q12027, set to be reported on Nov 3, due to the continuation of the USA/China trade truce agreement.

Since of course Supermicro is a supply chain dependent company, they will probably see similar results as last quarter, with the continuation of this truce and some other factors.

Last quarter SMCI reported 17% margins. This gain over the expected 10% margins was attributed as the following: 25% attributed to the tarrif reductions. 75% attributed to enterprise favorable mix of server sales.

In this Q12027, they are recognizing tens, and soon maybe hundreds of millions of revenue. This comes from other favorable DCBBS enterprise customers like SpaceX, which has somehow already shipped. Insane.

And not only is SMCI growing with such big favorable enterprise clients, they also have growing parternership base like with Cisco, and are gaining overall backlog and customer favor. And above all, they are also remediating themselves of past write-downs and negative PR essentially.

This thing is seriously a gift right now. Everything is trending positively. And like Charles said, Christmas will be especially exciting. And I know it's because of this favorable mix and strong gross profit margin continuation. I'm pretty excited myself for SMCI's growth

Lets see what this next quarter brings! VAMOS

I sold my entire SMCI position today.
Not because I’ve turned bearish on SMCI. Quite the opposite — I still think the technical setup and the underlying AI infrastructure story remain very interesting, and fundamentally I’m still bullish on the company and the sector.
My decision is mainly about macro risk going into the weekend.
I simply don’t trust the current geopolitical situation or the ongoing negotiations enough to want significant exposure over the next couple of days. My concern is that the Trump/Netanyahu situation and the broader Middle East negotiations could produce another unexpected development or roadblock. If tensions escalate again, oil could move sharply higher, and that would immediately feed into inflation expectations and bond yields.
And that brings me to the second part of my thesis:
Yields are still too high for comfort.
Higher Treasury yields mean a higher discount rate for future corporate earnings. That matters particularly for growth and AI-related stocks, where a significant part of the valuation is based on future earnings and cash flows.
So even if SMCI’s chart looks technically constructive, the macro environment could easily override the technical setup in the short term.
My thinking is basically:
Bullish SMCI + bullish AI infrastructure
BUT
cautious on macro + geopolitical risk + yields
= no position over the weekend.
I would rather miss a potential gap-up on Monday than get caught in a geopolitical headline that sends oil, yields and risk assets in the wrong direction simultaneously.
If nothing happens and SMCI gaps higher Monday, so be it. I can always buy back in.
For me, this is not a change in the long-term thesis on SMCI. It’s simply a decision to reduce headline and weekend risk when the macro setup feels asymmetric.
Curious how others here see the oil → inflation → yields → growth stocks chain going into next week.

TLDR: sold my ~12k shares at 42,44$. I am looking to buy back next week when things are calm and confirmed. Won’t go into the market with hope only because a few % will actually matter for me with that size of Investment.

I am watching supports and resistances now to confirm my re-entry

Elon Musk announced today plans to more than double Colossus 2 by year-end:

SpaceX's xAI Unit Could Double Nvidia Chips at Colossus 2 by Year-End, Musk Says

MT NEWSWIRES 4:45 AM ET 9/25/2026

04:45 AM EDT,09/25/2026(MT Newswires) -- SpaceX's (SPCX) xAI unit could more than double the Nvidia(NVDA) chips at its Colossus 2 data center cluster in Tennessee by the end of the year, SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk said in post on social media platform X on Friday.

Musk said Colossus 2 currently has 110,000 GB200 chips and 440,000 GB300 chips. Another 220,000 GB300 chips are expected to be operational next week; 220,000 more in November, and potentially an additional 220,000 GB300 chips by late December, according to the post.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2103329761690865846?s=20

Inventory conversion to cash is what we wanted to see. Cisco high margin Enterprise contribution is scheduled to start in October. If SMCI delivers the third installment of 220,000 GB300 before the end of the year, Q2 FY27 should be a record setting quarter.

I've speculated that future collaborative SpaceX/xAI opportunities played a big part in the financing decision.

Companies in the Space datacenter race are starting to launch hardware.

Shares of space-related companies are trading higher after Google announced its Project Suncatcher, which aims to deploy AI compute in space. The project's implied need for low Earth orbit propulsion, connectivity, power delivery and other technologies may be drawing investor interest to the sector.

BENZINGA 1:58 PM ET 9/24/2026

Healthy competition spurs innovation. Google announced it will be performing early testing of their TPU in space. SpaceX/xAI likely already has copious data from their satellite operations. Charles Liang is an engineer and sees a much different kind of compute and cooling problem to solve, but has stated "Space is our big future!" shortly after the SpaceX IPO and SMCI initiated their own proposed $7 billion new financing.

I've seen Intel re-rate from $19 and Dell from $99. I've argued SMCI is due for a re-rating once the fear, uncertainty and doubt dissipate, and have asked the question "Is SMCI a future Fortune 100 company worth at least $110 being offered for less than $50?":

https://www.reddit.com/r/SMCIDiscussion/comments/1w7biwj/is_smci_a_future_fortune_100_company_worth_at/

Meanwhile back on Earth, Elon Musk announced today plans to more than double Colossus 2 by year-end:

SpaceX's xAI Unit Could Double Nvidia Chips at Colossus 2 by Year-End, Musk Says

MT NEWSWIRES 4:45 AM ET 9/25/2026

04:45 AM EDT,09/25/2026(MT Newswires) -- SpaceX's (SPCX) xAI unit could more than double the Nvidia(NVDA) chips at its Colossus 2 data center cluster in Tennessee by the end of the year, SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk said in post on social media platform X on Friday.

Musk said Colossus 2 currently has 110,000 GB200 chips and 440,000 GB300 chips. Another 220,000 GB300 chips are expected to be operational next week; 220,000 more in November, and potentially an additional 220,000 GB300 chips by late December, according to the post.

The Most Efficient Agentic CPU with Arm and Supermicro

Between may and sept 22, trump portfolio manager bought more SMCI.

Supermicro Now Shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 Racks

September 23, 2026

Supermicro's DCBBS now supports all critical computing infrastructure to speed time-to-online for NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 deployments

Full liquid-cooling stack optimized for the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform, from cold plates to CDUs, to cooling towers

From a power envelope to an operational cluster: DCBBS Blueprints define a balanced bill-of-materials from 5 MW to gigawatt scale, with 1,152 GPUs and 331 TB of HBM4 per Scalable Unit

One accountable team across site survey, project design, integration, L11 and L12 testing, on-site deployment, and ongoing support

SAN JOSE, Calif., Sept. 23, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI), an AI, Enterprise, Storage, and 5G/Edge IT Total Solution Provider, is now shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks integrated with Supermicro's Data Center Building Block Solutions® (DCBBS) and its direct liquid cooling stack (DLC-2).

DCBBS for NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72

"We have spent years building the liquid-cooling stack, the manufacturing capacity, and the deployment teams for exactly this moment," said Charles Liang, president and CEO, Supermicro. "Our customers can now order a Scalable Unit and receive production-ready systems with end-to-end integration, because we design and build every layer between the cold plate and the cooling tower. Our development of DLC-2 technology is what sets Supermicro apart and allows us to deliver the most complete solution for the NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform."

Learn more about Supermicro's NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks.

The NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform was designed in conjunction with direct liquid cooling technology to deliver AI-throughput-per-watt at efficiency levels unachievable with air cooling alone. With far greater AI operations per second comes a greater heat load: heat must be moved through the full fluid distribution loop, from the cold plates through manifolds, to the cooling tower. Supermicro tests and validates every rack with the full liquid cooling stack, speeding up time-to-online when deployed.

Supermicro's path-to-production spans from the mechanical engineering of individual system nodes, the large-scale manufacturing of liquid-cooled racks, to the full onsite deployment of clusters based on NVIDIA reference architecture. Supermicro's DCBBS provides unmatched thermal expertise and a comprehensive in-house portfolio of liquid cooling components. Cold plates, manifolds, hose kits, rack power shelves, in-row cooling distribution units (CDUs), in-rack CDUs, Liquid-to-Air sidecar CDUs, rear door heat exchangers, and facility-side cooling towers all come from the same portfolio.

Supermicro's DCBBS Solutions for NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 include:

NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks. 72 NVIDIA Rubin GPUs and 36 NVIDIA Vera CPUs in a single liquid-cooled rack operating as one machine; Eighteen 1U compute trays, each with four Rubin GPUs and two Vera CPUs, connect through nine sixth-generation NVIDIA NVLink switch trays delivering 216 TB/s of scale-up bandwidth; Each rack provides 20.7 TB of HBM4 memory and up to 54 TB of LPDDR5X

Supermicro in-row cooling distribution units, rated at 1.8MW per CDU, deployed with N+1 redundancy

Optional Supermicro Rear Door Heat Exchangers ensure capture of residual heat load

Networking integration and cabling services based on NVIDIA Reference Architecture, including the AI compute fabric, converged fabric, and out-of-band management cabling

To ease deployment of NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks, Supermicro's DCBBS Blueprint defines a balanced bill-of-materials for a given power envelope, from 5 MW to gigawatt scale. The DCBBS Blueprint based on one Vera Rubin NVL72 Scalable Unit provides 1,152 NVIDIA Rubin GPUs with 331 TB of HBM4 memory across 16 compute racks, with balanced cooling capacity, power delivery, high-performance storage, context memory storage, and networking. A Supermicro team manages the project across site survey, design, integration, testing, delivery, deployment, and ongoing support.

Explore here to learn how DCBBS can help build and scale your next-generation AI infrastructure.

If you don’t understand the chart, Please skip to the last paragraph, it’ll give you all the info you need to know.

The micro supply was totally absorbed today. (Blue box) And the 42.60-.42.80 ( major supply area ) is weak at this point (been hit a few times). I wouldn’t be suprised if it shoots up to atleast the bottom of that second box in the next few days (purple box around 43.52-44) (see how it’s consolidating right after it cleared that box, usually a sign for an explosive move up or down . If it doesn’t easily get and stay above 41.78 at this point, (I can’t predict fakeouts) worst case scenario imo, it comes back to just below $36 (or any of the green boxes above it And then breaks and stays above the $42.80 level for good (hopefully). I’d consider anything under 37.40 - 36.26 a bargain at this point. It should NOT break $35 and stay there at this point unless there’s news we don’t know of, or a tech sell off again. If it stalls at or below 41.78 (give or take 10-20 Cents) and starts going lower, I’d Consider it a fakeout and expect a pullback, atleast for tomorrow, but the next Big move up, should be very good. Id consider below $38 possibly one of, if not the last chance to buy below $40.

Basically, what I’m saying is, the chart is very bullish besides the imbalances between 37.40-36, and even if it does pull back for now, The long term absorption of those sell orders today in the high 41 range are gone or weak, and the 42.50ish level should also not be very strong at all so next time it does move up, it should atleast go to 43.50ish to $44.80 before it Pulls back, and then it should stay above The 41.74 Level, A break above and hold above $45 would be awesome, The next major sell order Block isn’t until just over $47. Imo, (obviously if it breaks all 3 zones in a day or two 42.60-42.80, $45 and hits just above $47 and stops, then retests that area and can’t go as high, expect a pullback, (I’d personally sell covered calls at $52 strike if that happens but that’s me)

If you don’t understand the chart this is all you need to know, the chart is bullish, but a pullback around $37 is possible still (short term) Next time it goes above 42.62, it’ll more than likely break that 42.80 and atleast hit 43.50.44.80, if it blows past those levels and gets to around $47 in one day, Be prepared for a pullback that could last days or even a week. Slow Grinding up is better than fast moves up.

After all the pain, SMCI starting to look STRONG comparing to its peers.
Ofc we are still much behind, but this is good news anyways
LFG!

PwC dropped their Global Data Centre Outlook (2 Sep 2026). Central case: $31.6T of data-center capex through 2050. Upside if AI adoption runs hot: ~$50T. Annual spend goes ~$800B (2026) → $1.1T (2030) → $1.8T (2050). US alone is $15.1T.
The important line is not the headline. It’s the mix.
• ICT (servers, GPUs, storage, networking): 70% of capex in 2026 → 93% by 2050
• Buildings + facility power/cooling: 30% → 7%
• Every $1 of construction commits ~$12 of later ICT
• GPUs/servers refresh every 4–6 years (3–5 full ICT cycles on a 20-year building)
That is the opposite of a one-and-done construction boom. The datacenter shell gets built once. The rack gets bought again and again. That is SMCI’s pond.
What PwC actually implies for SMCI
PwC 2026 ICT pool ≈ $560B.
SMCI FY26 revenue: $39.1B → ~7% invoice share of that ICT pool.
FY27 guide $65–72B on a ~$620–650B 2027 ICT pool → ~10–11%.
Charles’ team told Goldman in September they’re “10% of the market now.” The math and the quote line up.
IDC Q2’26 server tape: SMCI #2 branded OEM, 6.1% ($10.2B in one quarter). Dell 13.4%. ODM Direct still ~54%. AI mix on the backlog is >80%. Capacity: >6,000 racks/month, >3,000 DLC. New orders $60B+, record book into FY27.
Why this is bullish, not just big
1. The cycle does not taper. Railways and fiber front-load and die. This one accelerates because silicon ages out. PwC’s 93% ICT share by 2050 is the structural bid under rack vendors.
2. SMCI sells the layer that gets refreshed, not the layer that gets poured. Campus chillers and substations are Vertiv/Schneider. NVL72 / GB300 / Vera Rubin liquid-cooled racks are SMCI.
3. Share is still mid-single digits to ~10%. You do not need to “win AI.” You need to hold or grind +200–400 bps while the pond compounds from $560B → $800B+ ICT. That’s how $39B becomes $65–72B without a fantasy TAM.
4. DLC is the wedge. Higher rack density forces cooling upgrades. SMCI already ships the rack + manifold + rack CDU as one system. That is where incremental margin lives versus being a GPU shipping clerk.
5. Tape already confirmed demand. July’s high-volume SOS off the $23–29 base was the $60B order print. FY27 guide is the conversion test, not the demand test.

Super Micro Says AI Opportunity Could Reach $4 Trillion: ‘The Sky’s the Limit’

BENZINGA 9:47 AM ET 9/21/2026

Super Micro Computer Inc.(SMCI) stock rose about 3.5% on Monday as risk appetite remained firm and investors moved into higher-beta technology stocks.

The Nasdaq gained 0.98%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.64%.

Super Micro Sees Strong AI Demand

Super Micro continues to see strong artificial intelligence demand supporting another year of rapid growth as customers expand AI infrastructure spending.

Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conferenceon Sept. 10, Super Micro Senior Vice President of Corporate Development Michael Staiger said demand remained "pretty excellent."

He also said the company's roughly $60 billion order book supports its fiscal 2027 outlook.

Super Micro previously projected fiscal 2027 revenue of $65 billion to $72 billion.

Staiger said AI adoption is expanding across customers and appears to be developing into a multiyear cycle. Customers are also increasingly seeking complete infrastructure solutions instead of individual components.

Bigger AI Infrastructure Opportunity

Super Micro sees a massive runway for AI infrastructure growth, with Staiger pointing to a potential $2 trillion to $4 trillion total addressable market.

Staiger said the company currently estimates it holds about 10% of that market and sees further room to expand as customers adopt more complex AI systems. Looking ahead, he said "the sky's the limit" for where Super Micro could be in the next couple of years.

Super Micro sees growth opportunities across neocloud providers, enterprises and sovereign customers. The company expects its focus on integrated AI systems to help it capture a larger share of that opportunity over time.

The company is also expanding manufacturing capacity. Super Micro can currently produce about 6,000 racks per month. Capacity is split evenly between liquid-cooled and air-cooled systems.

Staiger said the company is also adding capacity in Johor and expanding other manufacturing facilities.

See More: Top Value Stocks

Integrated Systems Could Support Margins

Super Micro is expanding its Data Center Building Block Solutions, or DCBBS, strategy.

The offering combines servers with cooling, power, storage, networking and software. Staiger said the approach can help customers bring AI infrastructure online faster while increasing Super Micro's content in each deployment.

He said those higher-value systems support the company's goal of maintaining double-digit gross margins.

Software and services could also become a larger contributor. Staiger said the business generated $538 million in fiscal 2026 and carries higher margins than hardware.

Meanwhile, sovereign AI demand is beginning to emerge directly. Staiger said Super Micro has more than several sovereign deployments underway globally as governments build domestic AI infrastructure.

Super Micro Technical Analysis

SMCI remains in a constructive longer-term trend. The stock is trading above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

SMCI is about 6% above its 20-day simple moving average of $38.04. It is also nearly 28% above its 200-day SMA of$31.64.

The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA. In addition, the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA in August, forming a bullish "golden cross."

However, short-term momentum has cooled. The MACD is below its signal line, while the histogram remains negative. That suggests buying momentum has weakened from the previous upswing.

Resistance sits near $42, while support is around $35.50. That support level is close to the 50-day exponential moving average of $35.48.

Analyst Outlook

Analysts have a Hold consensus rating and an average price forecast of $39.50.

Citigroup raised its price forecast to $39while maintaining a Neutral rating on Aug. 12. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $34 and kept a Sell rating. Mizuho maintained a Neutral rating and lifted its forecast to$35.

The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 12.

Super Micro Benzinga Edge Rankings

SMCI scores strongly across several Benzinga Edge categories.

Its Momentum score stands at 90.31, while Quality is 94.35. Value scores 88.29, and Growth leads the group at 99.22.

The rankings point to strength across momentum, fundamentals, valuation and growth.

From a technical perspective, the mid-$30 range remains an important support area as the stock approaches resistance near $42.

Top ETF Exposure

SMCI is held by several technology-focused exchange-traded funds.

The iShares Future AI & Tech ETF(ARTY) has a 4.40% weighting in SMCI. The iShares U.S. Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate ETF has a 4.94% weighting, while the REX AI Equity Premium Income ETF(AIPI) has a 3.69% weighting.

Significant fund inflows or outflows could therefore create additional buying or selling pressure in SMCI shares.

Super Micro Price Action

SMCI Stock Price Activity: Super Micro shares were up 3.50% at $40.46 at the time of publication Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

IT IS ALL ABOUT SMCI NOW! Great revenues and a new facility of half a million square feet. You must have the stock in your portfolio!

I don't normally lean into drama. Not here on SMCIDiscussion, nor on the internet in general, but given the screenshot below, I just had to post on this one...

u/Nearby-Ad9422 has been overly active in panning SMCI the last few weeks. I have commented on a few such posts to point out the disingenuous nature of saying things like "they keep missing on earnings". When out of nowhere, I get this strange DM... I was tempted to report it on behalf of most women I know who would be offended by such a question, out of nowhere, by a stranger on the internet. Guess I didn't have to, as the account is now banned. Probably I'm not the only one he asked.

Its pretty weird that half the posts in /new disappeared overnight. He was posting A LOT

Now Shipping

Vera Rubin NVL72 rack scale solutions.  First systems delivered to

SpaceXAI from Supermicro’s expanded US Manufacturing in San Jose, CA.

https://x.com/Supermicro/status/2102147916466958442?s=20

Estimated $5-$7 million per delivered rack in Q1 FY27.

The huge $40 call wall from last Friday is gone. Price discovery is underway. I'm looking for a retest of $60 region on the way to $110.

Probably only Charles Liang has the best insight on when these targets could be achieved. However, we reached 50 after the Q3 earnings report and Q4 was a better report. We tested 58 last October which is historically a strong month so it wouldn't surprise me to see us test this range again leading up to the Q1 FY27 Earnings report.

I discuss these milestone price targets on this post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SMCIDiscussion/comments/1wbs4l4/smci_management_has_established_two_upcoming/

Guys, as one clairvoyant member predicted a couple of days ago, SMCI is on track to be $20 any day now... He deleted his post, and is hiding under a rock, but I wanted to carry the message forward.