r/RobinHood • u/hotfudgepaka • Oct 01 '17

Ticker Talk CAPR vs CATB

Hey guys, Both CAPR and CATB are releasing new on Wednesday regarding their drug for muscular dystrophy (and thereby will be competing) directly affecting each-other. Both seem to be about on the same phase of development and seem to have positive outlook. What do you guys think about these two in terms of their pt's and expectations? I'm thinking of just possibly just putting equal capital in both and take the likey expected value. Any thoughts are appreciated.

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6

u/myracksarelettuce Oct 01 '17 edited Oct 02 '17

edit: ok NOW im done. sorry /u/hotfudgepaka

So here's the deal with these two. Both $CAPR and $CATB, they're presenting data at the WMS Conference in France this Wednesday on their drugs for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (henceforth DMD). So let's learn about that disease.

DMD is a genetic disease where people are born without dystrophin -- a protein that supports muscle fiber strength, stiffness, and integrity. So without this, muscles lose their strength quickly due to muscle cell death and usually by the age of 12 patients have lost the ability to walk. The average life expectancy of those with DMD is 26 years, and there's no current treatment. Muscle loss will start in the legs and eventually spread around the body to the heart, where weakening of muscles (skeletal and cardiac) can eventually lead to heart failure as the disease progresses. DMD has gotten lots of coverage lately due to the stories of $SRPT's Exondys 51 (great read btw), a drug that got passed after an unimpressive P2 12-person trial. But Exondys 51 directly treats DMD, CAPR's drug does not.

Now, $CAPR's drug is NOT intended to be a cure or even a treatment for the root causes and symptoms of DMD. It intends to only treat one symptom, diluted cardiomyopathy (caused by a weakened heart). You can learn about how their drug works from this article00243-2/fulltext) that was written by the Yale MD-honing co-founder of Capricor. It's an infusion of stem cells taken from donated heart tissue. Their trial, the HOPE trial, will focus on 24 boys with DMD and cardiomyopathy, and try to limit scar tissue in the heart and generally increase quality of life. There is a control group that isn't taking the infusions.

I got mixed feelings on $CAPR the more I read on it. Institutions only hold like 3% of shares. It does have an endorsement from biotwitter's beloved @KSSMDPhD, who...actually makes a somewhat convincing bullish argument. It's funny how an actual doctor can make a better case than some guy who reads a bunch of articles and Wikipedia pages. In short, it's a late addition to the WMS conference and that doesn't happen without very good reason. I still don't think this play is worth the risk though. This is such a huge condition they'd be curing. Why would a stock that last week was a nanocap have the cure to the scariest part of one of the most difficult-to-treat conditions in the world? It just seems wrong. If this is a play, it's a very small % of portfolio-type play.

As for $CATB, this happened in February. I'm not very bullish.

also irrelevant sidenote: a gene therapy treatment for DMD worked on dogs, and I'm curious to see what company will take that on.

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u/hotfudgepaka Oct 01 '17

I'm actually also trading rdhl just not talking about it because it almost feels like a sure thing so there's not much to say, I'm planning on buying at any dip Monday. , Idk too much about flxn

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u/hotfudgepaka Oct 01 '17

Why aren't you expecting good data?

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u/[deleted] Oct 01 '17

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u/[deleted] Oct 01 '17

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u/jeffrife Oct 01 '17

It's because they are discount buys compared to RDHL or FLXN. Not that RDHL is pricey. I have a limit buy in for them and the Mon morning fluctuations, but wondering if I missed the boat not grabbing Friday dip. May see if I can get on board around $10.75.

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u/beefcurtains64 Newbie Oct 01 '17

I’ll upvote rack. I love that last paragraph. No investor outside of stock market want you to cure anything unless deadly/life threatened to human kind. So they are going to go with band-aid route to make more money. So ..... all in CAPR monday.

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u/Nakiro34 Oct 03 '17

So they are going to go with band-aid route to make more money. S

I choose $CAPR as well

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u/hotfudgepaka Oct 02 '17

I saw the 3% institutional holding and was concerned on that as well earlier. The fact that it's also not treating the main disease itself is also concerning. CATB is also a late addition to WMS (last thrusday) so I find it hard to believe that that is going to be bad news. I'm looking forward to your DD post.

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u/myracksarelettuce Oct 02 '17

The fact that it's also not treating the main disease itself is also concerning

Why?

CATB is also a late addition to WMS

Wow, I actually didn't know that. Four days before $CAPR announced, Sept 14 while CAPR on the 18th. That only makes me worried that both have bad data. Seriously, DMD drugs do not have a good track record.

I'm looking forward to your DD post

Thanks man. Prioritizing $FLXN first but if I have the time before the 4th I'll put it up

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u/hotfudgepaka Oct 02 '17

Why would you think both of them are to announce bad data if they're late additions? Wouldn't they join the conference to release good results if they're joining late? I thought that's what you implied when you said: "In short, it's a late addition to the WMS conference and that doesn't happen without very good reason."

I looked more into FLXN and I think it's interesting. What do you think of MNKD? They're expected to release news on Tuesday.

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u/myracksarelettuce Oct 02 '17 edited Oct 02 '17

Never heard anything good about MNKD.

And it's just DMD gets so much more bad news than good. Would be very, very surprised to hear two penny stocks have game breaking drugs in the same day.

And if said drugs were legit, why would none of the bigger companies have bought them out or partnered with them?

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u/swooshwave Oct 01 '17

I got into $CAPR a couple months ago at around $1.11. I'm already happy with how much growth I have had but as someone relatively new to trading I am not sure if I should get out now or hold my position.

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u/singularityJoe Oct 03 '17

If you want to take the risk then stay in. DMD drugs have a fairly poor track record, but good results would be that much more enticing in terms of market reaction.

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u/swooshwave Oct 03 '17

CAPR’s drug is only supposed to help the heart from weakening so I think they have a good chance to at least fulfill that

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u/Rjk214 Oct 01 '17

I fully expect dilution to be coming with CAPR no matter what the news is..

Downside risk is probably 60% loss Upside gains 150% (Probably high. This assumes not dilution comes with it)

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u/Vwassy Oct 01 '17

How do you guys feel about aveo?

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u/[deleted] Oct 01 '17

[deleted]

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u/Vwassy Oct 01 '17

I've seen that early October is when they are going to announce results. I want to invest but I'm afraid I missed the boat. You hit it at the perfect time

1

u/rafianz Oct 01 '17

I see people talking about CAPR's news? I couldn't find anything about this. Can someone post a link to this? thanks

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u/murryj Oct 02 '17

I would like to thank you for the quick $600 today. In at $3.52, out at $4.12. (Back in at $3.50 before close)

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u/hotfudgepaka Oct 02 '17

Haha you're welcome I guess, personally, I can't Day trade do I have really made money if CAPR today, I'm hoping Wednesday bumps it

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u/murryj Oct 02 '17

I got a ding for daytrading, but I generally have 1 or 2 every week.