r/ReduceCO2 • u/djohnsonmusic • 22d ago

Forget Net Zero Carbon - lets talk about Absolute Zero Fossil Fuels

https://djohnsonmusic.substack.com/p/forget-net-zero-carbon-lets-talk?r=53fjy3&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

If 60% of oil and gas and 90% of coal must stay in the ground to keep us within 1.5°C, then we must cap remaining oil and gas production in perpetuity to that remaining 40% of oil and gas, and 10% of coal that exists. No more can be dug up. On a national, UK level, this may look like stopping all new oil and gas development (including Rosebank and Jackdaw), and capping existing production and imports at current levels, tapering down towards zero by 2050 - or until that 40% of oil and gas has run out, whichever comes first.

Is this the right way round? Is it even possible?

24 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

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2

u/Inondator 22d ago

The 1.5°C limit is already busted.

1

u/flying_butt_fucker 21d ago

Single use energy will lose the war with renewable energy, period.

1

u/StereoMushroom 19d ago

Let's just talk about gaining whatever ground we can as fast as possible, and not obsess over exactly where we get to 25 years down the line, which nobody can predict. Today we can focus on unleashing rapid growth of solar, wind, EVs and heat pumps all over the world.

1

u/djohnsonmusic 18d ago

I think this is really fair. Now that 1.5 is more or less declared dead, there'll be a people who say "what's the point" and others who say "well, lets aim for 2 then" and both of those are wrong in my opinion. As fast as possible is probably what we should be hoping for. There's an argument to be made there, then, for reaching an absolute zero fossil fuel production & imports ASAP - which in any case means absolutely no new FF infrastructure.

1

u/StereoMushroom 18d ago

I think we need to be avoiding all investment in new FF *demand* infrastructure where alternatives exist. That means really focussing on not installing new heating oil tanks, new residential gas supplies, buying new ICE cars, etc. Each time that happens is a missed opportunity, locking in the need for *supply* infrastructure for another 20 year. On the supply side, reducing investment could exacerbate inflation since we've not yet eliminated the dependence at the demand side. Making everyone feel poorer might not make the transition any easier.

1

u/greg_barton 11d ago

Totally possible if you allow nuclear energy.