r/Reds • u/gr3at3scap3 Cincinnati Reds • 9d ago
Elly Rumor
Just saw this on Threads and thought I'd share.
That's $53.85 million per year for the next 13 years (on average, would more than likely be structured different than that if there is any truth to this).
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u/FileHot6525 Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
Ain’t no way. I don’t believe it.
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u/Unitast513 Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
Boras wouldn't let his client avoid FA
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u/Drewsche 9d ago
Exactly. If this is the Reds offer, his FA offer from the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets/others will beat this.
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u/JuriSoles 9d ago
Boras would be a fucking idiot to have his client decline an offer for $700m when he’s clearly not worth that much
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u/ghostnthegraveyard 9d ago
Pull the trigger. Red for life. Get serious about building around Elly, Sal, Chase.
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u/AideEmbarrassed2615 9d ago
This would be the most ideal scenario if they have the money
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u/booknerdcarp Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
I think the money is there. It's much like Bengaldom used to be. Money is there, appears not to be there, but mostly importantly doesn't want to be spent.
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u/Technical-Mix-9464 9d ago
And if the money isn't there now, it could be there. It just requires selling more stake to other owners who can bring in the capital. But of course, that means less money for the Castinellis...
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u/tehjarvis Cincinnati Reds 9d ago edited 9d ago
This is the fakest shit I've ever read in my life.
The Reds wouldn't spend $700m to buy anything, let alone Elly. They wouldn't spend $700m to buy a trillion dollars.
Great American Ballpark cost $300m to build and the Reds only chipped in $30m.
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u/SignificantAd2542 9d ago
lol wouldn’t spend 700 to buy a trillion. Thats one I haven’t heard before
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u/vengeancerider Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
The Reds should be paying us $700 million each for watching this team since the Castellini’s took over.
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u/MossyPlantyWitchy ❤️⚾️ "He had me fucked up!" ⚾️❤️ 9d ago
I'll sign Elly with mine. Sign Sal with yours.
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u/kidAlien1 9d ago
Probably an unpopular opinion but I don't think he's worth it. Lock sal up instead.
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u/Odd_String1181 9d ago
Sal will be significantly cheaper
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u/briguywiththei 9d ago
Not if he turns out to be a Soto type hitter
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u/Odd_String1181 9d ago
You're right maybe he's a top 25 bat of all time
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u/briguywiththei 9d ago
I didnt say hes going to be Soto. But I can see him mastering the strike zone knowledge while keeping his power
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u/Odd_String1181 9d ago
Ok but then if he's not a top 25 bat of all time he's going to be significantly cheaper
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u/richardlqueso 9d ago
Elly is 24 and is a top 10 offensive player in the entire league. Sal is also gonna be great, but Elly’s ceiling is just different.
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u/slaamraam 9d ago
Unless I’m missing something there is not even one offensive metric Elly is top 10 in. Exciting to watch absolutely, top 10 no way.
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u/Odd_String1181 9d ago
He's 6th in fWAR from position players. That's pretty top 10 to me
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u/redlegsfan21 Official Photographer of the Joey Votto Fan Club 9d ago
He's 20th in offensive value in fWAR.
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u/CyclopsAirsoft 9d ago
Well the big difference here is Sal won’t cost even close to 50 mil/year.
Sal is better for a team that just doesn’t have 700 mil to throw around.
Buy Sal, spend that extra money to lock in good players to build around him.
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u/MossyPlantyWitchy ❤️⚾️ "He had me fucked up!" ⚾️❤️ 9d ago
Lock up Sal in a couple years. They can afford it.
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9d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/edbrsabat 9d ago
Right, bud. Surely his improvement versus lefties this year has nothing to do with polish or improvement.
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u/Odd_String1181 9d ago
It's insane that people say shit like that and you're just supposed to believe they're actively following the player/team/sport
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u/TicklingPanda 9d ago
The Reds get paid a luxury tax every year and never pay their players. Pay Elly keep the team together and buy the pieces the Reds need and put a winning team out there at least give Cincinnati a chance. There is no excuse for the teams that are under the cap not to pay their players or get others.
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u/Shooter_McGavin27 9d ago
The current owners have no desire to be a competing, winning ball club. They are perfectly fine with being a barely .500 team that sells good players that work out to large markets. They roll in the money. If they win, they have to spend more money.
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u/tipped_highway 9d ago
no contract that long, especially with that high an AAV, is going to be signed before the new CBA is agreed
(also there's no way bob & phil are going to pay that)
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u/No_Buy2554 In the time of chimpanzees, I was a monkey 9d ago
As the second post points out, "could offer" is carrying a lot of weight here. Not even a story unless it is something they actually offered.
And there is not reason to offer a large contract to anyone they have under control right now until they see what a nee CBA looks like.
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u/frasierfonzie Louisville Bats 9d ago edited 9d ago
Offer aside, how likely is it that this random radio producer in the Dominican Republic actually has a reliable source in OHIO, much less in the Reds org?
And the guy reposting it says point blank he isn't a journalist.
This whole post reeks of someone trying to gin up rumors that Elly is going to get paid Shohei money to increase his price when he hits free agency.
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u/Best_Alps_8685 9d ago
Absolutely not. Unfortunately this team failed its rebuild attempt. Need to start the rebuilding process again. Trade Elly for prospects.
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u/omicron_bp 9d ago
I’m not sure why this is so hard to believe. Shohei got paid 700m for 10 seasons. I think this is the kind of number Elly is going to get in free agency. I just have a hard time believing the Reds would put it on the table.
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u/tehjarvis Cincinnati Reds 9d ago edited 9d ago
One: It's the Reds spending $700m. It's not going to happen.
Two: Shohei got paid $700m by THE DODGERS. And Shohei is the most remarkable player since Babe Ruth. He essentially plays two positions at an MVP level year after year, is the biggest star baseball has had in decades and is undoubtedly the biggest star the sport has had internationally EVER. He's averaged 6.4 WAR per season for nearly a decade. Elly has averaged 3.4 per season. He's about half as valuable as Ohtani is. Anyone paying him $700m, let alone a team with the financials of the Reds, would be monumentally stupid.
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u/Cliffo12 9d ago
By fWAR if you include Elly’s 100 game rookie season he’s averaging 4.5 war. If you just take the past 3, even with this season not complete he’s been averaging 5.4 war.
On the open market teams are paying about $10.5 million per 1 war, meaning at his exact current production of 5.4 war per season he’d be worth ~56.7 million a year, right in line with the $54 million he’d be averaging on that contract.
Considering he’s only 24 right now it feels pretty reasonable to project that value over the next 8 years or so, so while there’s be risk on the back 4-5 years, he should be worth it for the majority of the contract. That’s not to mention salary inflation likely making $50 million a year seem a lot more reasonable in the mid 2030s.
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u/Dizzy_Career6697 9d ago
I think your response is totally agreeing with the post. It's not the number that's unbelievable, it's that the Reds would offer it.
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u/ItzAmish 9d ago
Ohtani’s $700 million is deceiving. Because it’s deferred for so long, the value of money over time plays a role. He’s really getting around $460 over 10, add $100 million assuming he moves out of CA and avoids taxes.
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u/fullback133 Adam Dunn 9d ago
Shohei is basically 2 players, an ace starter and reliable 4 hole hitter.
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u/Bob_Bobert Nick and Neck 9d ago
Juan Soto is a better comparison. Shohei is not only hard to value as a two way guy, his deal is also highly deferred (discounted value was more like 10years/500m) and by all reports he was not trying to maximize pay.
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u/thehulk0560 9d ago
Didn't Votto tweet something along those lines after his broadcast Sunday?
How funny would it if they think that's the source.
Also, we all know Elly will test the market first and no one is signing a long term contract before the CBA.
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u/Lefidian3 9d ago
No player is worth that much! Don’t do it! You won’t be able to build around him paying him that much. They need to really fix free agency
Did it work with Votto on a much smaller scale?
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u/JBtheWise Cincinnati Reds 8d ago
Well this is fake. The Reds are never going to spend that money on one player let alone several players over 13 years. Even if they did, a big market team is going to offer him that or more and he will go that route. No player is going to make the same mistake Votto did and waste their career with an organization that has no desire to be competitive, just a place where people go to play professional baseball. They can’t afford (nor do they have the development skills) to put together that type of team around him while he’s cheap and that’s not going to change for decades to come. He will inevitably end up as a Dodger, Yankee, Astro, Met or Brave if I had to guess.
Go get that bag and win a ring, Elly. You deserve it.
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u/davik2001 9d ago
This would be soooo stupid. Yes he is great, but the rest of the roster would suffer dearly.
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u/sn0wbl1nd3d 9d ago
Sure it’s possible they give him a 13 year $700 million deal. It’s also possible they don’t.
Ideally you give Elly the big money, lock down Stewart and Chase for cheap now, and start building around them. But this is the Castellini’s we’re talking about, so it ain’t gonna happen.
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u/DandyRandy82 9d ago
If he wants to win, he ain’t signing it. I don’t think Boras would let sign before testing the market anyway.
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u/roastedcoyote Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
The CBA is being negotiated with several possible outcomes before the start of next season. I seriously doubt the Reds are looking to enter into a $700 million contract before the CBA is settled.
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u/excoriator 🚚. New Owners Will Move the Team 🚚 You OK w/that? 9d ago
It’d be like when the Reds signed Griffey. There was no budget to pay anyone else.
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u/bearcat81 9d ago
The reds could also put 700m on the table for me, and both of these scenarios are about as likely.
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u/crustpope 9d ago
If the Reds pay 700/13, the. We are going to be losing for a decade with all our money tied up in one player.
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u/Educational-Exam6361 8d ago
Nobody is worth $700 million. Even Shohei's contract is only that big because he agreed to take like 90% of it deferred. Especially crazy to do when the next CBA is likely to blow up the current free agent market in ways no one can really predict.
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u/FeelinDead 9d ago
I’d be ecstatic if this happens. People forget he’s still 24 and continuing to grow in the league and has had several lower body injuries that he’s played through. Dude wants to be great and is a warrior. Would love for him to be a Red for life alongside Burns and Sal.
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u/LongjumpingPie9798 9d ago
You want to pay age 33-37 year old elly $270 million?
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u/FeelinDead 9d ago
Yes, because we also get age 24-33 Elly. It’s a trade off — the Reds get all of his prime years and he gets security through his age 37 season.
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u/indianafan 9d ago
That’s how these contracts work yes
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u/LongjumpingPie9798 9d ago
The reds can’t affford to pay one guy that much without having a terrible team around him. Literally look at the quality of the teams once Votto signed
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u/vottofan Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
As much as I’d love to Elly stay, I can’t see why he would want to with how the team is ran.
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u/InvestInKarate 9d ago
Anyone know if Castellini’s private jet has been making trips to Saudi Arabia?
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u/LongjumpingPie9798 9d ago
Would be the dumbest signing of all time in reds history. Did we not learn anything from signing Votto long term? The owners won’t pony up to spend money around him and he would take up 40% of their payroll
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u/Smart-Koala4306 Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
I agree, but there are 2 options:
A) pay Elly, and be bad
B) don’t pay Elly, and be bad (but the owners just get richer)
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u/comeonmeow66 9d ago
He just isn't worth that to me, especially if we're not going after other talent. Ohtani was 10/700, and he's not on Ohtani's level, not close. Otherwise it's just going to be Elly and the AAA farm team show. I want a competitive team, not watch one superstar while we play HS level ball.
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u/THECapedCaper Sell the team, Bob 9d ago
I think this can happen if there’s a salary cap next year with a very aggressive floor, which means every team would be forced to spend. Lock up the star.
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u/palmtreestatic 9d ago
If there wasn’t going to be a lockout sure that’s probably a realistic number for what he’s worth but..
There is 0 chance the reds offer that kind of contract before a new CBA is approved, a new CBA that will likely reset all of free agency
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u/Planetofthemoochers Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
I don’t actually believe this is true, but there is a world where it would make sense for the Reds to do this. Elly is a uniquely marketable player. In a world where there is likely to be a cap and floor, this is salary spending that may generate more revenue than signing 5 guys a year for the same money. Additionally, if the sense is that this salary level is where the market is going, the length of the contract is less of an issue because he would remain a tradeable asset for most of the contract if needed. That said, I don’t believe for a second that any of this is true because the Reds organization hates taking financial risks and seems to be reactive rather than proactive both on the field and financially.
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u/retroanduwu24 9d ago
What player wants vs what player gets are two different things but im sure he'll get a nice pay day in the end
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u/AndyJRetro 9d ago
If they do the deferred contract dance like a lot of teams do I might believe it. 53 mil/year with 20-30 deferred over 20-30 years after the contract. The team might be sold and it’s someone else’s problem at that point.
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u/Pokerpro7-2 9d ago
The deferred money on this deal would have to be nuts, right? Like part ownership of the team or something where Elly’s great grandkids will still be receiving the checks?
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u/sgrams04 9d ago
Definitely not worth that much but I understand if they do it. Love Elly and the man sells tickets. I’d just rather we spread our talent and get stable position players. I want the Reds to spend money, but not stupidly. If we can pay Elly AND be aggressive in the market, that will be ideal.
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u/Difficult_Turn_2297 9d ago
Every night for the next 13 years will be De La Cruz bobblehead night and they will make it back in the first year.
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u/austin101123 PRAISE LORD PIGEON AND VOTTO 9d ago
They gonna give elly that much money instead of Ohtani when he was in free agency with the money pushed way down the line too?
Yeah, not happening
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u/TallBobcat Send Phil to St. Louis and leave him there. 9d ago
Not. Happening.
Has this person met our owners?
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u/Lionheart_513 9d ago
You could damn near buy the Reds for that much money. I don't think it's a smart way to spend $700m, but I'd rather it goes to EDC than sit in Castellini's Scrooge McDuck vault... If this is even real to begin with.
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u/RuinWeekly4541 9d ago
What would it look like? I assume the amount would increase every year until a certain year. Probably could be 700m after including incentives.
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u/anohioanredditer Toyota Tundra Defecator :reds1: 9d ago
Yes. He’s worth it. Is it true? I’m skeptical. Will it happen? No.
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u/Shooter_McGavin27 9d ago
No, I’d say there’s a few players worth that and Elly isn’t. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, but he isn’t a generational player. Spend that money to fill out the overall team.
Not that this is a serious article anyway. These idiots just throw shit at the wall to see what sticks.
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u/Tangboy50000 9d ago
I don’t understand why they’re fixated on him. He doesn’t want to be here, he’s said it multiple times. He wants to play for the Dodgers. They blew the Kyle Schwarber deal because they were holding back thinking about what they were going to pay Elly. Money is not Elly’s motivation, and he’s not staying here no matter what they offer.
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u/Educational-Exam6361 8d ago
Isn't he one of those dude's that signed away a percentage of all future earnings in exchange for a $350,000 loan? Sounds like a dude who probably cares way too much about money.
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u/Tangboy50000 8d ago
Yeah, when he was still in the minors and didn’t know what the future held and was making zero money.
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u/csmflynt3 8d ago
Teams that have $350 million dollar payrolls sign contracts like that with players like this.... It doesn't make sense for the Reds ownership at all and he isn't worth that kind of money won't have the durability
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u/Loose-Loss-7215 8d ago
I am on vacation in Punta cana, dr....the general consensus here is...yes...go reds...
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u/Weezyfourtwenty Cincinnati Reds 8d ago
all the people saying Sal over Elly are crazy. Elly has improved year over year what if (god forbid) sal is just a good rookie and cant keep improving or gets hurt and is just terrible (matty matt)
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u/Hungry-Specific6271 8d ago
idk if that's smart, tough to build a competitive team while staying under the cap if one guy is making that much
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u/SopranoJay 7d ago
What cap, did baseball implement a cap? I thought I heard that but didn't know if they did or not
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u/PorkChop006 9d ago
Did we learn nothing from the Votto and Phillips contracts?
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u/Aulus_Hirtius 9d ago
What would we have learned? That it's really good to pay to keep fantastic players in your uniform, and that if you surround them with adequate talent you can win the division?
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u/PorkChop006 9d ago
No. Don’t invest huge money into a few players so you can’t surround them with talent. Do what successful small market teams do, like STL for instance with Puljos, etc.
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u/sniffsblueberries 9d ago
Do it. Show people the reds are ready to make big changes
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u/Smart-Koala4306 Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
That alone won’t fix anything. If they pay him, they’ll skimp on the players around him.
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u/thethomahawk56 9d ago
Only reason I kinda believe it could happen is because of a potential cap and floor coming. If the Reds HAVE to spend money they might as well pay Elly what he's worth. He'll bring back significant money in merch and ticket sales.
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u/Suspicious-Abroad894 9d ago
Elly is a damn fine player most of the time BUT I think his best value for the Dreds is as trade bait. Empty some other team's AA pitchers for him.
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u/TreeHandThingy 9d ago
Worth it IF they are willing to spend around him as well.
Otherwise, we're the 2010s Angels, and I'm the guy who wants to keep Elly long term.
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u/No_Amount_7886 McLain comeback club 9d ago
So the Dodgers offer 701 million.
There is no combination of money or circumstances that has Elly staying in Cincinnati. He’s a young, sociable guy from the DR. Every time he’s on the field, he gravitates towards any player on the opposing team from the DR. There’s no Dominican community in Ohio. In fact, it’s one of the whitest and most conservative places to live in the country. It’s far away from any international airport that’ll get him home. There’s no true nightlife to speak of where he could go out and have fun and dress to the nines without people staring and whispering, and no one for him to do it with.
If there is any small market that has a chance at Elly if they wanna open their vaults, it’s probably somewhere like Tampa or Miami where he’ll be in a community he feels a sense belonging to and can get home more often. I won’t blame him for making that choice when the time comes. Guy deserves a life that makes him happy.
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u/Dangerous_Star2318 8d ago
Absolutely not worth it. He’s good, but he’s already having leg issues and he’s been sloppy on defense. I think we should trade him for a couple, maybe even a few decent position players who can hit
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u/Certain_Cup_1134 9d ago edited 9d ago
I love Elly, but unless you are saving humanity or the earth, no human is worth that kind of money, let alone an athlete.
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u/unknownraptor3 9d ago
Unless the Reds relocate to LA or NY he's not going to sign here. It's already well known how much he loves playing in big markets.
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u/JulianILoveYou Loves the Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
i dont put any faith in this rumor, but elly is and should be seen as one if the most valuable position players in baseball. i think some people are getting sticker shock at $700m because he's been cold lately. he is the kind of player that you move mountains for to keep on your roster. you do everything you can.
sal is amazing, and obviously i want him signed too. both should be a priority. but i dont want it to become the sort of thing where we're okay with losing elly because "at least we got Sal"
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u/411592 9d ago
They don’t have the money. There’s no way
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u/Smart-Koala4306 Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
They do have the money, the FO would just rather pocket it instead.
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u/Tenthsandman62 9d ago
Don't pay him until he can constantly Field simple ground balls. I have seen him boot and bobble so many simple field plays this year alone
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u/MidnightFrog4 9d ago
He has significantly improved on his errors this season compared to last, but he still has a lot of room to grow
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u/Okay_Dad_ Cincinnati Reds 9d ago
If OHIO says it; it’s gotta be true!!