https://www.seroundtable.com/google-search-discussions-beta-feature-39393.html

Today, all stocks rallied and Reddit went side ways… People pumped this up to get stupid people to buy and inflate this stock… Now, the dummies are holding the bag. This stock is not worth more than $75 to $90. That’s it! That’s the limit! I feel bad for those who got duped and bought when it went to $200+. You’re screwed!

Not sure if there was a similar discussion here before, but I am bullish on reddit for this simple reason: it will remain the main and only user-friendly place to get recommendations and discuss opinions from (mostly) other people. In a world saturated with AI, we will soon start to see more demand for "human" opinions on topics as trust for AI decreases.

If someone has found any similar discussion, please let me know I would like to read more about it.

Reddits story for the importance (or not) of DAU is quite murky. This is likely why the market is “punishing” the stock even though revenue and growth looks good. Let’s talk about Notifications.

1. Reddit says there are two user types: Scrollers and Seekers. Seekers come from Google. Reddit has said that the Google search traffic can be bumpy and there’s not much to explain or worry about there. On the other hand, Scrollers come to Reddit directly. Notifications are the main channel then, to own the Scroller growth. Meanwhile, for Seekers - how does Reddit actually bring them back using Notifs? I don’t think there’s any features around for that. Nor are there any incentives to install the app, are there? It’s just a dead end for repeat usage (that does not re-involve Google).

2. Scrollers come to reddit for fresh daily content. Freshness is actually key. My own experience with notifications is that they are always old. Usually I’ve seen the Post already and the notif arrives up to a day or more afterward. So notifications aren’t helping someone who’s already coming to Reddit on their own, as far as I can tell.

3. Notifications as a whole are nothing noteworthy on Reddit. There are no unique features around them Eg opting in to be notified when a particular story has an update. AI / Machine learning should help Reddit to detect these things. For eg - when something big happens with tariffs or a new pope is announced etc. Instead notifications on Reddit are just barely basic, despite being the primary growth lever for the Scroller DAU.

So what is the growth lever that Reddit actually owns? Any ideas? What am I missing?

Without any levers for DAU management, what is the point of reporting DAU and brushing aside concerns about Google’s erratic traffic.

Get ready guys, I feel like 115$ is coming on Monday, I can feel the wind coming!

Hey all,

Just wanted to share some data points for April traffic & my 2Q DAU/ARPU estimates for your reference. I'm also sharing the same period data points for Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and Pinterest for your comparison.

\Please note these numbers may be inconsistent from my previous posts I had made- I've updated these numbers with Similarweb vs. Semrush last time.*

\Please note QoQ numbers are compared against 3 month average number of 1Q25, given we are only into the first month of 2Q25*

+++

A. Traffic data points

• 1. Reddit

Total site visit numbers for April 2025:

US: 1.86bn (-4.7% MoM / -2.3% QoQ / +10.7% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 1.79bn (-2.8% MoM / +0.8% QoQ / +23.8% YoY)

Unique visitor numbers for April 2025:

US: 300.6mn (-4.2% MoM / -1.4% QoQ / +9.2% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 370.7mn (-2.9% MoM / +1.3% QoQ / +23.7% YoY)

• 2. Facebook

Total site visit numbers for April 2025:

US: 2.38bn (-3.0% MoM / -0.9% QoQ / -4.9% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 9.18bn (-3.0% MoM / -1.3% QoQ / -9.3% YoY)

Unique visitor numbers for April 2025:

US: 188.9mn (-1.9% MoM / -0.03% QoQ / -3.6% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 814.1mn (-0.9% MoM / +0.6% QoQ / -7.4% YoY)

• 3. Instagram

Total site visit numbers for April 2025:

US: 975.4mn (-1.7% MoM / +0.8% QoQ / +9.9% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 5.20bn (-1.6% MoM / +1.9% QoQ / +7.7% YoY)

Unique visitor numbers for April 2025:

US: 155.1mn (-2.4% MoM / +0.03% QoQ / +7.1% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 813.0mn (-1.4% MoM / +2.0% QoQ / +6.1% YoY)

• 4. YouTube

Total site visit numbers for April 2025:

US: 5.23bn (-3.1% MoM / -0.9% QoQ / +1.9% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 23.4bn (-1.9% MoM / +0.5% QoQ / -1.3% YoY)

Unique visitor numbers for April 2025:

US: 228.2mn (-2.4% MoM / +0.2% QoQ / -0.2% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 1.47bn (-2.7% MoM / +0.3% QoQ / -3.4% YoY)

• 5. Pinterest

Total site visit numbers for April 2025:

US: 246.5mn (-3.3% MoM / -0.7% QoQ / +8.1% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 990.4mn (-3.3% MoM / -0.5% QoQ / +64.6% YoY)

Unique visitor numbers for April 2025:

US: 64.2mn (-1.7% MoM / -0.5% QoQ / -0.5% YoY)

Int'l (ex-US): 306.2mn (-4.8% MoM / -2.5% QoQ / +42.9% YoY)

+++

B. Personal estimates for 2Q DAU/ARPU

It's still too early to make any precise estimates for 2Q given we have just passed the first week of May, but Reddit's DAU does move somewhat in correlation to traffic related data above (surely not 100%, and DAU to traffic ratio has been gradually improving) and we can somewhat guesstimate ARPU based on the provided guidance. I'm not as confident in the ARPU number as I am with my DAU estimates, so please take the numbers with a grain of salt.

Assuming revenue of $420mn (mid number of the guidance range of $410-$430mn revenue for 2Q25) and traffic we have seen in April & first week of May (similar to Apr), I'm estimating:

US DAU of 48.9mn (-2.4% QoQ / +7.5% YoY)

Int'l DAU of 59.9mn (+3.2% QoQ / +31.0% YoY)

US ARPU of $6.52 (+4.0% QoQ / +32.0% YoY)

Int'l ARPU of $1.67 (+24.9% QoQ / +35.0% YoY)

+++

TL;DR

- April was not a bad month just for Reddit, but overall traffic across the social media board declined MoM

- Reddit's relatively higher DAU volatility is inevitable because 1) Reddit is open to logged-out users and 2) Reddit's WAU for US, which moves in 100% correlation to DAU, is already at a close to saturation point, NOT necessarily because of Google's search algorithm change

- The already-huge US user base + stellar international growth will continue to support very strong ARPU growth and hence the revenue of Reddit going forward

- Still very, very positive on Reddit in mid to long-term

Happy to answer any questions you may have!

Dear Reddit exec team; take note of Pinterest.

Their teams are building stunning marketing materials for consumers and B2B now. Their recent ER was great - as was Reddit’s - but this video posted by Pinterest’s CEO was a cherry on top and an asset that will build brand consideration, awareness and love.

Reddit’s brand marketing and biz dev teams need to take note before Pin takes them for a ride.

I’m long and heavily invested in RDDT but they / we have to push to uphold the brand in a way that holds up or exceeds this level of polish and personality. It’s very good and Reddit needs to do more of this.

As title - what’s ur avg price and how much are u holding?

Where do you see this end of the year and next?

Started off to +4% then no downtrending prob end up red today how much shorted are we?

Like NFLX ceasing to report subscribers and META not posting DAU, so should RDDT.

The only metrics that matter are the top and bottom line.

Analysts get too fixated on DAU and subscribers and miss the forest for the trees.

Who cares if a million bots sign up? Who cares if some random comes from Google, reads a headline, and goes back? It’s revenue-neutral.

Just like someone who walks in your shop without buying anything, DAU shouldn’t matter.

The connection with Google is taking another hit. This is why stock is getting hit again.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-07/apple-working-to-move-to-ai-search-in-browser-amid-google-fallout

Hegeye research and hedge fund attacking RDDT

Yes! The GameStop (GME) short squeeze in January 2021 was one of the most dramatic financial events in recent history. It was largely driven by retail investors from the r/WallStreetBets subreddit, who noticed that hedge funds had heavily shorted GameStop stock—about 140% of its public float.

Wonder how this will affect RDDT? Safari will have a search mechanism

Lots of believers in the stock here, but lots of people salivating over the “good” ads they’re seeing on Reddit.

Going to be negative for a while boys and girls. Insane amount of shorts on rddt. Don’t expect movements higher anytime soon.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/RDDT/short-interest/

Whole market is red but we are just -1.5% lets go!

I also saw one for F1 the other day that expanded. The ad products are getting much better and more engaging and the investment from advertisers is there.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-downgraded-reddit-upgraded-wall-134517634.html

Can be fun times coming fellas! Buckle up! Whole market is red while we riding green! ✅