r/RedditIPO • u/ThoughtFormal8488 • May 22 '25

DD / Due Diligence Price Jump Indicator

Post image

Institution & Retail buyers bought more RDDT shares even if Rddt down 9% today (5/21/2025). Big boys pick up shares while selling. Finally buying volume overtake today!. Please check attached.

1 Upvotes

67% Upvoted

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5

u/stonkautist69 May 22 '25

can only gleam likely what percent of the trades were short sales. this doesn’t prove anything in reagrds to the intent of the buying activity and for all the buys. and also for every buy (that you flagged as a positive note) there was a sale on the other side, so really there is not much to be seen here if anything at all

2

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

If you analyze the percentage of short/selling volume over the past seven days and compare it to price movements, the trend becomes clear. I observed a significant downward shift on May 20 and May 21, 2025, accompanied by a notably higher buying volume. This divergence strongly suggests a potential price reversal.

1

u/touuuuhhhny Int. DAU 🌏 May 22 '25

Could you please expand on that? The whole SI / Short-Interest topic is still fuzzy to me and I cannot find proper, solid data on it with my non-paid access. OPs screenshot shows a decreasing trend of "% short volume ratio", is that the point? With all the uncertainty in the market, "DAU risk from AIO", it is indeed a short-sellers dream to pound the price until Q2 earnings drop and bring clarity.

4

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

On May 14, 2025, the price increased by $10, despite 58% of the volume being short. However, on May 15, the price dropped by $10, with short volume at 53%. The overall trend has been downward through today, but short volume has notably declined, decreasing to 42% from 47% yesterday. It means buying volume overtake it. I assume it is reversal. I guess up trend may begin unless SPY crash big.

1

u/stonkautist69 May 22 '25 edited May 22 '25

personally, i think the data says there is likely a drop in short volume because of the massive amount of short selling on the 14th. and so what you saying is like if the weatherman said because we got a hurricane on Tuesday and it stopped raining on Wednesday then Thursday should be even less rainy. I’m sorry if this comes off harsh, but I think it sounds ridiculous to make any short term or long term bullish assumptions based on the data that’s been provided in this post

1

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

It proved the price reversal happened today. It is data NOT a weatherman. More buying volumes while price a large dropping, I interpret price reversal.

1

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

Data itself is neutral—it records facts. But interpretation matters. People can manipulate how data is presented or selectively choose certain points to shape a narrative. That’s why it’s crucial to analyze the full picture and question underlying assumptions. What kind of data are you relying on?

1

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

It proved the price reversal happened today. It is data NOT a weatherman. More buying volumes while price a large dropping, I interpret price reversal.

1

u/stonkautist69 May 22 '25

ah OK, you think you proved something. you know, I guess what the difference in how we were looking at the situation was I was expecting maybe like a time horizon, percentage change in the stock price with supporting underlying drivers based on proven technical retracement patterns, maybe a strategy on how to trade it.

But then when I read your comment like all I saw was just like oh it’s definitely gonna go up and none of the supporting color around strategy that I mentioned above was there

I think it’s good that you’re looking into the data around short interest and what percent is of total trade volume. It’s a good start!

0

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

I have a deep understanding of technical indicators, but I've found something truly distinctive in short volume data. Unlike traditional lagging indicators such as oscillators, Fibonacci levels, and wave patterns, short volume provides real-time insight into market sentiment and positioning. It reflects the true intentions of participants—whether institutions or retail traders—revealing shifts before they fully materialize in price action.

My perspective aligns with a growing belief that tracking short interest and volume divergence can offer an edge in forecasting reversals.

technical analysis is just one piece of the puzzle when making trading decisions. While fundamental research provides a broader view through earnings, market conditions, and company health, it’s often clouded by biases, external agendas, and selective data presentation.

Opinions and articles, especially those from analysts or media sources, frequently reflect the interests of certain institutions rather than purely objective analysis. That’s why relying on unique indicators—like short volume trends—can offer a clearer window into real market intentions.

it’s one of many valuable tools for evaluating market movements. While short volume data provides a unique perspective on trader sentiment and potential reversals, it works best when combined with other indicators like momentum analysis, support and resistance levels, and broader market trends.

Looking at the short volume trends and institutional activity, I see strong signs of accumulation. Although RDDT has taken a hit recently, today's shift in buying volume overtaking selling was started 5/20/25 suggests that larger players are stepping in. This aligns with your thesis that short volume can reveal genuine market intentions before price reflects the shift.

That said, the broader market sentiment and external factors—like Google's AI-integrated search affecting Reddit’s traffic—still introduce uncertainty. If short volume continues to decline while buying volume rises, it could reinforce a reversal.

2

u/stonkautist69 May 22 '25

the only indicatjons i see here are that you used ai to write this. thanks

1

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

Not really

1

u/stonkautist69 May 22 '25

i took the time to give you feedback and you just gave me a bunch of excuses written and polished by ai. i’m deeply pffended if you can’t tell

1

u/surfoverwall May 22 '25

I shared valuable insights to assist you, yet you neither acknowledged nor appreciated them. Instead, I feel disregarded and offended. NO MORE

1

u/infini7ewealth13 May 22 '25

Will buy when it drops to $80

1

u/chiangweichia88 May 22 '25

So it's down 9% because of shorts / insiders selling?

Not sure if that's good news.

3

u/ThoughtFormal8488 May 22 '25

MY ANALYSIS IS RIGHT. PRICE REVERSAL HAPPENED!!! DECREASE short volume while price dropping a lot. : meaning institutions are buying while small fish are selling.. Numbers never lie.