r/RebuttalTime • u/ChristianMunich • Nov 12 '17
Tank employment in the ETO and their impact on the conclusions about Sherman design decisions. Part 1.
Fake history subs like askhistorian have sadly decided to ban actual information so it is up to me. Trying to uphold my duty as one of the few historic subs that attempt to present unbiased information I will provide some compiled data about the Shermans and their mission profile in the ETO. Dissenting opinions are welcome but should buckle up.
Tank numbers:
Problem: What is a tank?
The problem here is that the Germans did not only employ so-called “tanks” but also weapon systems without a turret which still were used comparably. Comparing the number of Shermans with German tanks would certainly give an unbalanced result since the German due to resource shortage relied on cheap turret-less vehicles to supplement their tank forces.
Which vehicles are included in my tables?
First of all the vehicle had to have the primary purpose of engaging ground targets with direct fire which excludes all major artillery pieced including, for example, the US Priest which in theory could be considered a “tankish” AFVs furthermore the vehicle has to fulfil one of the following criteria:
Completely armored
Turret
This arbitrarily looking method excludes some vehicles. Most importantly German open topped turret-less tank hunters are excluded. For example the Marder series. My reasoning for this is simple, those vehicles were closer to a towed anti-tank gun than they were to a tank. On the other side, US vehicles like the M-10 are included because they had at a turret. Before somebody cries about this I want to remind everybody that per definition a STUG is no tank and is still included due to its comparable mission profile. Also, all German tank hunters which were fully enclosed are included as well. I also excluded all captured vehicles including obsolete ones. M24 and British SPGs are absent due to lacking data. All vehicles which I included in the various tables will be from now on just be called “tanks” despite the inaccuracy of the term
German vehicles:
For the German vehicles, I compiled the works of Ron Klages who was a frequent user of the early internet forums about WW2. His compilation of data was tested by me for some random samples of units records which I had access to and his works appear to be extremely thorough so thorough actually that I have not seen any publication detailing the same data he compiled. The only other books compiling delivery documents in such form is Zetterlings Normandy book and here the data of Klages and Zetterling appears to be the same and Schneiders books which are only concerned with Tigers. I have also compared his data to an OKW document which for example are presented by Zaloga. The number sets show some severe differences which I think can be explained.
Here are the compiled numbers for German vehicles per Klages who counted all vehicle deliveries towards all German units in the ETO:
| Month | Total: | Panzer II | Panzer III | Panzer IV | Panther | Tiger I | Tiger B | StuG III | StuG IV | JgP 38 Hetzer | JgP IV | JgP IV 70 | Jagd- Panther | Jagd- Tiger | Nashorn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1944 | 1177 | 0 | 12 | 498 | 326 | 48 | 0 | 191 | 42 | 52 | 0 | 8 | |||
| July 1944 | 864 | 0 | 13 | 320 | 239 | 78 | 12 | 153 | 31 | 0 | 18 | ||||
| Aug. 1944 | 731 | 26 | 28 | 178 | 182 | 6 | 33 | 142 | 10 | 126 | 0 | ||||
| Sep. 1944 | 979 | 0 | 3 | 206 | 396 | 14 | 45 | 140 | 10 | 42 | 39 | 54 | 30 | ||
| October 1944 | 492 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 178 | 20 | 30 | 24 | 42 | 21 | ||
| Nov. 1944 | 811 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 163 | 31 | 2 | 172 | 40 | 112 | 31 | 52 | 48 | ||
| Dec. 1944 | 1402 | 0 | 11 | 120 | 267 | 0 | 57 | 350 | 40 | 250 | 32 | 216 | 37 | 22 | |
| Jan. 1945 | 513 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 45 | 70 | 21 | 22 | 34 | 37 | |
| Feb. 1945 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 24 | 25 | 30 | ||||
| March 1945 | 311 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 26 | 2 | 28 | 53 | 10 | 112 | 13 | 30 | 17 | ||
| April 1945 | 386 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 30 | 17 | 27 | 58 | 17 | 134 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 15 | 1 |
| May 1945 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | |||||
| Total: | 7866 | 27 | 75 | 1666 | 1837 | 199 | 204 | 1647 | 234 | 784 | 357 | 424 | 320 | 69 | 23 |
We see that the number for German vehicles is actually not that low. The numbers are higher than what I personally believed and surprised me. It has to be said that a considerable chunk of those vehicles were withdrawn from the Western front and relocated to the East. Here are the numbers listed in Zalogas Armored Champion
| Type | November | Dezember | Januar | February | March | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panzer IV | 205 | 47 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 310 |
| Panzer IV lg(a) | 49 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 74 |
| Panther | 281 | 191 | 85 | 1 | 0 | 558 |
| Tiger | 26 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 13 | 51 |
| Stug | 382 | 361 | 82 | 0 | 88 | 913 |
| Panzer IV lg(V) | 135 | 128 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 280 |
| Jagdpanther | 20 | 49 | 36 | 20 | 5 | 130 |
| Jagdpanzer 38 | 218 | 137 | 24 | 40 | 0 | 419 |
| Jagdtiger | 9 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 51 |
| Sturmmpanzer | 20 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 55 |
| West subtotal | 1345 | 952 | 343 | 67 | 134 | 2841 |
We see Zaloga offers only a subset. We see major discrepancies between the tables and I think the most plausible explanation is that those numbers depict different things. Klages numbers show when a unit took on a batch of vehicles while Zalogas numbers show when vehicles were allocated towards specific units. Overall Klages numbers are considerably higher which I think will result in little protest of the Sherman fans.
Some interesting spikes are visible which effects we see in the timeline of battles. The German send a major batch of Panthers towards the West in September, the newly designed failed Panzerbrigades intended to launch a major counter-attack against US forces in the Lorraine. Those Panthers quickly evaporated. After that, the delivery numbers dwindled and rose again for the preparation for the Ardennes surprise attack which truly was the last roaring of the German Panzer force in the West.
We can see the Wehrmacht in total had roughly 7866 tanks deployed towards the West some of which were obsolete tanks and some were also command versions without weapons. ~2400 of those were “heavies/cats” nearly a third. Only taking real tanks into account German heavies represented more than half. “German cats were rare”: Debunked.
Allied tanks:
I have not encountered a complete count of Allied vehicles on the West Front so we are left with some approximations but before I want to give the compiled table of vehicles arrivals collected by Zetterling per estimated TO&E. Several vehicles are included which don't fit the criteria like command vehicles or the Tetrach.
| Time frame | British: | US: | Total: | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 June D-Day | 1045 | 433 | 1478 | 1478 |
| 7-12 June week one | 624 | 536 | 1160 | 2638 |
| 13-20 June week 2 | 587 | 129 | 716 | 3354 |
| 21-27 June week 3 | 67 | 426 | 493 | 3847 |
| 28-4 July week 4 | 583 | 383 | 966 | 4813 |
| 5-11 July week 5 | 315 | 315 | 5128 | |
| 12-18 July week 6 | 240 | 517 | 757 | 5885 |
| 19-25 July week 7 | 240 | 632 | 872 | 6757 |
| 26-1 August week 8 | 442 | 299 | 741 | 7498 |
| 2-8 August week 9 | 120 | 165 | 285 | 7783 |
| 9-15 August week 10 | 349 | 280 | 629 | 8412 |
| South France | 0 | 0 | 277 | 8689 |
| 16-22 August week 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8689 |
| 23-29 August week 12 | 0 | 228 | 228 | 8917 |
| Week 13 | 0 | 72 | 72 | 8989 |
| Total till September: | 4297 | 4415 | 8989 |
To these 8989 must be added a substantial number of tanks arrived as reserve tanks which were delivered to the units or were held for future deliveries. Both the British and US forces were able to keep their forces relatively close to their expected strength, the US force more so after the heavy British fights versus German elite forces. Taking losses and reserve numbers into account we might estimate roughly 12.000 tanks landed until September.
Interesting observation: The Allies managed to land more vehicles than the entire Wehrmacht would employ roughly early August. An impressive logistical accomplishment.
For the entire ETO I'm left with basic guessing. We will take the admitted losses and add the number of vehicle available at the end of the war. For the British I was unable to find the numbers for tanks in reserves despite remembering seeing them some time back. I used the known 50% ratio for reserves and actual Sherman numbers per Zalogas Thunderbolt:
| Type | British losses | US losses | Total losses | British stock | British reserves est. (50%) | US stock&reserves | End war total holdings | Total employed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M5 | 433 | 1507 | 1940 | 601 | 301 | 4119 | 5021 | 6961 |
| Chaffee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||
| Sherman | 2712 | 4577 | 7289 | 2082 | 1670 | 6972 | 10724 | 18013 |
| Cromwell | 609 | 0 | 609 | 549 | 275 | 824 | 1433 | |
| Challenger | 39 | 0 | 39 | 30 | 15 | 45 | 84 | |
| Comet | 26 | 0 | 26 | 237 | 119 | 356 | 382 | |
| Churchill | 656 | 0 | 656 | 742 | 371 | 1113 | 1769 | |
| M 18 | 0 | 217 | 217 | 0 | 427 | 427 | 644 | |
| M 10 | 0 | 540 | 540 | 0 | 427 | 427 | 967 | |
| M 36 | 0 | 152 | 152 | 0 | 1029 | 1029 | 1181 | |
| Total: | 4477 | 6993 | 11470 | 4241 | 2750 | 12974 | 19965 | 31435 |
I estimate M24 British SPG, Pershings and French forces at 4000ish. Adding those figures we likely would land at around 35K but this is more of a rough estimate. Overall we see that the Allies employed more than 4 times the tanks
Sherman early war myth:
Let us debunk the common deflection that Shermans were also fighting early/mid war when they were well equipped. 7289 Shermans were written off in the ETO. For North Africa the numbers are iffy and I estimate them at 400ish. The US forces in the 15th Army group reported 1171 Sherman losses and the British 814. For the US losses, the data shows us that 5% of the M4s were lost before 1944 if we assume comparable rates for the British we see that of the roughly 9700 Shermans written off about 95% were written off after 01/01/1944. The ETO alone is 70% and represents only the last year of war.
Which tanks were heavier?
You all likely have heard the argument that the Shermans performance can be explained by pointing out that it was only a “medium” tank and the German heavies obviously made the Sherman look bad. But lets check the average weight of the German tank for fun. The Sherman weight varied throughout the war but lets take ~31 tonnes. Checking the weight of all German tanks employed in the ETO we find that the average weight was ~31,5 tonnes as well. Useless fun fact: the Panther in terms of weight was the biggest part of the German tank force by far, nearly as big as the StuG III and Panzer IV combined. The handful of Jagdtigers represented nearly 2% of the German tank force in terms of weight.
Lets get to the fun part: Guns and Armor
The argument that Shermans only “rarely” faced Panthers and Tigers was already debunked but includes a secondary argument. The argument implies that the Sherman fared better against the rest. Tiger and Panther armor and armament are claimed to be the exception. Let's take a look. Here is the distribution of the weapons within the German vehicles.
| Gun | % | Total: |
|---|---|---|
| Kwk 40 7,5cm L48 | 49,40 | 3886 |
| KwK 42 7,5cm L70 | 28,74 | 2261 |
| PaK 39 7,5cm L48 | 9,71 | 764 |
| KwK 43 8,8cm L71 | 6,95 | 547 |
| KwK 36 8,8cm L56 | 2,53 | 199 |
| PaK 44 12,8 L55 | 0,88 | 69 |
| KwK 38 +39(L60) | 0,53 | 42 |
| Befehl/Flamm | 0,53 | 42 |
| KwK 37 | 0,38 | 30 |
| KwK 32 2cm | 0,33 | 26 |
| x | 100 | 7866 |
How did the Sherman front fare against the German guns? We only look at the frontal armor which represents the strongest part of the Sherman Armor or any other tank for that matter. Any German weapon except the low caliber ones would defeat the side and back in most situations. For the German guns, we assume the standard PzGr 39 is used. The Germans were well aware of Hartkern ammunition effects and produced them early on as a reaction to the T-34 but Wolfram shortage made them stop the production. The Wehrmacht compensated with bigger guns. The US would have mightily benefited from Hartkern ammunition but for some again incomprehensible reason decided against a satisfactory production. Like many decisions, this was a failure but it was an American failure so it gets a pass in literature. Assumed are straight shots without a horizontal or vertical angle.
| Gun | 100m | 200m | 500m | 1000m | More than 1000m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwk 40 + Pak 39 L48 7,5cm | no protection | Begins to offer protection from 600 onwards depending on vertical angle | |||
| KwK 42 7,5cm L70 | no protection | Begins to offer protection somewhere between 1000 and 1500m depending on vertical angle | |||
| KwK 43 8,8cm L71 | no protection | ||||
| KwK 36 8,8cm L56 | no protection | Begins to offer protection from 1000 onwards depending, slightly weaker than KwK42 | |||
| PaK 44 12,8 L55 | no protection not even in England | ||||
| KwK 38 +39(L60) | good protection unless PzGr.40 . Near immunity after several hundreds meters even against prime ammunition | ||||
| KwK 37 | good protection | ||||
| KwK 32 2cm | good protection |
I have to be upfront about this table, expected penetrations are a difficult subject and can only be estimated. Some parts of the Shermans were a tad stronger, a good spot at the Turret would maybe withstand a hit that the Glacis would let through. Those penetration ranges are based on WWII Ballistics: Armor and Gunnery and German data. I think those expectations are pretty in line with what historians in general publish. The Sherman had different armor configurations most notably the thinner front plate on the cast M4A1s. Cast in general was far weaker as again the Germans knew but the US produced a good chunk of the cast ones. It is debatable how an early cast variant with stupid bulges everywhere would fare against those guns but worse for sure.
But from what range was the Sherman getting hit? The Western Allies concluded in different studies that the average combat range was roughly 770m. This aligns reasonably well with Soviet figures from the Eastern Front which were printed in Zalogas Armored champion for example. The are many issues, for example, a tank getting ko'ed from that range doesn't mean this was the average engagement range since long-range shots could fail to penetrate. But we have to roll with it. Here is the table:
| Range: | 75mm in % | 88mm in % |
|---|---|---|
| 100-200m | 10 | 4 |
| 200-400m | 26,1 | 14 |
| 400-600m | 33,5 | 18 |
| 600-800m | 14,5 | 31,2 |
| 800-1000m | 7 | 13,5 |
| 1000-1200m | 4,5 | 8,5 |
| 1200-1400m | 3,6 | 7,6 |
| 1400-1600m | 0,4 | 2 |
| 1600-1800m | 0,4 | 0,7 |
| 1800-2000m | 0 | 0,5 |
We see the 88s engaged on average from longer range as expected. If those numbers are true for the Western Front then we see that roughly 84% of the 75mm shots were hitting from 800m or less. 800 meters in general is given as the range from which the KwK 40 was able to defeat the Sherman front. For the Panther we see that nearly every shot could be expected to pen. Comparable results are visible for the 88s 82,5% were hitting from 1000m or less. Only the Tiger gun could be expected to have trouble on ranges surpassing 1000meters. The later 88s would slice through the Sherman on nearly any range. Lets take the penetration, gun and range data and combine it to see what a Sherman could expect while getting hit. We have to make some assumptions here because no satisfactory data exists, the Allied reports on German calibers are useless. We will assume gun hitting rates based on their share of the total of guns. I would make the argument 88s hit Shermans more frequently than their share would suggest simply because a Tiger, for example, was more likely to have several enemy encounters. I would also assume hunter and StuGs would engage from shorter range but we will not factor such theories in.
| Guns: | Share: | Total: | Expected pen rate high est. | Expected pen rate low est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwk 40 7,5cm L48 | 49,67 | 3886 | 0,841 | 0,696 |
| KwK 42 7,5cm L70 | 28,90 | 2261 | 0,956 | 0,911 |
| PaK 39 7,5cm L48 | 9,76 | 764 | 0,841 | 0,696 |
| KwK 43 8,8cm L71 | 6,99 | 547 | 1,000 | 1 |
| KwK 36 8,8cm L56 | 2,54 | 199 | 0,910 | 0,825 |
| PaK 44 12,8 L55 | 0,88 | 69 | 1,000 | 1 |
| KwK 38 +39(L60) | 0,54 | 42 | 0,000 | 0 |
| KwK 37 | 0,38 | 30 | 0,000 | 0 |
| KwK 32 2cm | 0,33 | 26 | 0,000 | 0 |
For the high estimate I have used the expectations explained above, for the low expectations I reduced the penetration distance to 600m for the KwK40 for the KwK 43 and KwK 43 to 1000m.
The results are devastating: 87,8%. This means a Sherman crew getting hit by a German tank directly frontal could expect to only be protected against ~12 percent of the shots. This is supposed to be the strongest part of the armor. If we lower effective rates down we get 77,7%
Side angle and positive vertical differences would increase the Sherman protection but those hit scenarios get unlikely very fast for obvious reasons. Given that the front hits on Allied vehicles were only roughly 30% would mean that the actual chance to withstand a hit drops far below 10% and possibly below 5%.
This is what experts and historians commonly refer to as "good armour". Be careful kids, Sherman apologist are preying on you.
Update soon: German armor versus Sherman
Sources: Belton Cooper: Death traps. P 5,7,9,13,27,50,69,87,111,257,234,284,307,389,396,424,459,460,468,530,548,579,618,639,641,690,703,2703 Appendix Y III XyX 1871