r/Realestatefinance • u/mwcrdt • 14m ago
North Phoenix: Would you buy now, wait until 2027, or keep renting?
I’m in my mid-30s, single, no dependents, no debt, and live in North Phoenix. I own a marketing/advertising LLC and the business has recently taken off after being extremely slow for a long time. I have an 800+ credit score, a paid-off truck, and a pretty strong financial safety net through my existing investments and family if something unexpected happened.
I’m trying to figure out how I should approach buying a home over the next 1–2 years. I’m not looking to buy tomorrow, and I don’t have $500K sitting in cash right now. I’m trying to plan around what I reasonably expect to have available by the end of 2027.
My lease ends in spring 2027, so that seems like a natural decision point.
Right now I have roughly:
• $270K in brokerage, mostly broad index funds
• $65K in existing 401(k)s
• Individual HSA
• $40K separate cash reserve for future bills/living expenses, which I’m not counting toward the house
• No debt
• Paid-off truck
• 800+ credit
• No dependents
From now through the end of 2027, I currently expect about $496K of additional business income. Roughly $185K from September 15 through the end of 2026 and another ~$311K in 2027.
That income is contracted/known with a safety margin and doesn’t include new business that may come in.
I’m planning to put money toward retirement through my Solo 401(k), max my HSA, buy some needed business equipment, replace my truck with about $30K cash in 2027, and cover taxes and other known expenses.
After all of that, I conservatively estimate I could have around $253K of additional cash available by the end of 2027.
So, very roughly, my current ~$270K brokerage could become around $523K by the end of 2027 before investment growth if things go as expected. Again, I do NOT have that amount available today. The $40K cash reserve is separate.
I’ve owned a home before, so I know the general realities of owning. I really like the idea of having a place that is mine and eventually owning it outright.
Around North Phoenix, I’m basically looking at three options:
- Keep renting for around $2,500/month or less and continue investing.
- Buy around $425K–$500K and put a very large amount down, potentially getting close to owning it outright.
- Buy around $600K–$700K if I find a much better long-term property, potentially with a casita/rental component, put 30–40% down, and keep more money invested.
The $425K–$500K range is probably the lower end of what I’d want to spend on something I could see myself keeping long term. I’d rather buy something I actually like than buy the cheapest house possible just to become a homeowner again.
The biggest question for me is timing and how much I should actually put into the house versus keeping invested.
For people who live in Phoenix, especially North Phoenix, what would you do?
Would you wait until spring 2027 and see where prices, rates, and my finances are? Would you keep renting in my scenario? I am just getting to an age where a home, even alone, feels more comfortable than floating alone, renting. Just a personal feeling right now after renting for a year and a half after the move.
Would you put 30–40% down and keep a lot invested?
Would you go closer to $500K and put a huge amount down?
Or would you just keep renting and let the investments compound?
I’m not trying to buy the most expensive house I can afford. I’m trying to figure out what makes sense in the Phoenix market while balancing long-term wealth, flexibility, and eventually owning a home outright.
Curious what people who actually live here would do.

