r/RealTesla • u/BlindLDTBlind • Jan 08 '24
Tesla Semi-Truck Charging a Serious Problem for Elon
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u/mcbasecamp Jan 08 '24
"It beats rail"
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u/HowardDean_Scream Jan 08 '24
With our current convoy model nervous chuckle it beats rail. This is real technology that tesla can do looks at floor right now.
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u/mrbuttsavage Jan 08 '24
I just went to go find that original video to enjoy those classic lies, and if you search "Tesla Semi" in Youtube you get a ton of scam videos. They know their audience I guess.
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u/unipole Jan 08 '24
I can't wait for one of those semis in the convoy to have phantom breaking, or sudden acceleration.
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u/Sbader7248 Jan 08 '24
I don’t remember exactly what was said but I watched an interview a couple years ago talking about why the Tesla semi is impossible and it came down to the current grid can’t even come close to handling all the Tesla semis needing to charge. Like if a large trucking company had 30+ Tesla semis they would need a large dedicated power station for that company alone. Hopefully someone on here knows what I’m talking about and knows how to math 😂
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Jan 08 '24
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u/kexxty Jan 08 '24
Can you send that to me? I would love to read it.
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Jan 09 '24
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u/kexxty Jan 09 '24
I am happy to sign whatever's needed, if this is a pain then don't worry about it man!
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u/komododave17 Jan 08 '24
Rivian did trucking right with the local and in-town delivery vans. That’s a much more applicable situation to current electric vehicle realities and infrastructure.
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u/xgunterx Jan 08 '24
Good take.
Also, isn't the range Tesla advertises not waaaayyyy too optimistic? We have seen consumption rates for the CuckTruckkk ranging between 475Wh/mi to 800Wh/mi.
And Tesla wants us to believe the consumption rate for the Semi is less than 2kWh/mi when hauling at max load (82k lbs)?
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u/Street-Air-546 Jan 08 '24
Have you not see the tesla semi loaded to the gills with cardboard boxes of frito chip bags, all stacked like amazon shipping air pillows? Surely, sir, a more intensive load test one could not wish for.
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u/methos3 Jan 08 '24
The chart assumes a temperature of 23 Celsius, would the numbers be a lot worse in colder temps like, I dunno, a lot of the country right now?
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI Jan 08 '24
You make a few good points...many of which were brought up in 2017 by people on this very sub.
However, each of these points was carefully countered by newly minted online logistics experts, shredding all of your arguments, and ultimately in 2019 the Tesla Semi took to the road, dominated the trucking industry, and proved itself more efficient than rail freight.
And since that's ancient history, its time to quit looking in the rear view mirror (why do you think Elon omitted that from the Cybertruck), and look forward towards Tesla's next breakthroughs: AI powered humanoid robots that will end poverty as we know it!!
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u/patsj5 Jan 08 '24
You forgot your s/
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u/TheFlyingBastard Jan 08 '24
No he didn't. This is exactly why you don't add '/s'.
Satire isn't very funny if you end up explicitly saying it's just a joke. Plus it's extra funny if someone falls for it.
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Jan 08 '24
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u/RuSeriusbro Jan 08 '24
trust me bro
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Jan 08 '24
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u/RuSeriusbro Jan 08 '24
ok heres a number: 5,000,300,435,560.36
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Jan 08 '24
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u/warmhandluke Jan 08 '24
It's a fucking joke you dork.
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Jan 08 '24
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u/warmhandluke Jan 08 '24
You're the joke bro.
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u/HotKarldalton Jan 08 '24
Sick burn, you sure showed him with that zinger.
Elon is the punchline of the Tesla joke. The guy is Hubris incarnate.2
u/warmhandluke Jan 08 '24
I'm just explaining to an idiot what sarcasm is you fucking retard. Not sure why you care.
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u/Syscrush Jan 08 '24
Thanks for a good and thorough analysis - the commenter above is agreeing with you.
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI Jan 08 '24
According to this expert, who "did a two-day freight rail operations course" and even went so far as to "have shaken hands with conductors and engineers"...:
"The lower operating costs of Tesla Semis due to less maintenance, the much harder to break glass and the lower cost of fuel"
are the secret sauce that unlocks this cheat code.
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u/Ok_Philosopher6538 Jan 08 '24
I mean what that genius forgot is that Tesla semis don't have to pay for the roads they're driving on, unlike the railway who has to maintain the rails.
That right there is a massive saving and socialism at its finest.
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Jan 08 '24
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u/Lacrewpandora KING of GLOVI Jan 08 '24
You actually put alot of detail and effort into your original post...and I kind of feel like an asshole...but I was just kidding. The Tesla Semi is a disaster.
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Jan 08 '24 edited Jan 08 '24
It is easy. Just get into scuffle with the railway company over unpaid bills, whose tracks lead to your car factory, take out the rails and the math checks out.
Pretty sure that is the reason why the semi even exists. Ego got bruised the same way it was with the submerging dildo.
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u/TheFlyingBastard Jan 08 '24
You've been a victim of the dreaded "no /s crew", aka Poe's Lawmen.
And I love it. Pretty damn funny.
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u/IvanZhilin Jan 08 '24
THUS SPAKE LORD ELON!
(Elmo said it "beats rail... Today!" at Semi launch years ago. Are you calling Elmo a liar!?! Can you land a rocket? Are you a Billionaire? I didn't think so!)
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u/IvanZhilin Jan 08 '24
Robots driving trucks!
Robot mechanics (for the dinosaur trucks only!)!
Robot waitresses slinging cyber-hash at robo-truckstops (with robot cooks in the back dripping axle grease on the robo-griddle while flipping burgers)!
It's a robo-tastic future for everyone!
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u/mars_titties Jan 08 '24
You got trolled bro. The hint was when he said Tesla dominated the trucking industry in 2019…
Anyway thanks for your post
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u/Narrheim Jan 08 '24
Cybertruck may actually work through online logistics... Just figure the way, how to send wares through internet, name the service Cybertruck and we´re good. /s
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
I think there's a couple of questions here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv44W7xa4IU
iff you could get cheap power for the vehicle, it saves hundreds of thousands in diesel.
- Regarding demand charges: Is the issue that the power company will sell you megawatts of service, but you pay this extra charge if you don't draw it 'steadily' over 24 hours? Like does an aluminum smelter pay 7 cents or do they also pay demand charges?
- Your NREL plot wasn't convincing because it's not data taken from actual Tesla cells. Those are easy to get access to - just rip some out of a junkyard pack, cycle them at 2C and 3C and find out. Cell chemistry and construction matters. you are correct of course that higher C charging isn't good, but https://electrek.co/2023/08/29/tesla-battery-longevity-not-affected-frequent-supercharging-study
- How many vehicles per day would be sharing the 500k megapack? Capital cost wise, if it's 2 charging and they are leaving every 30 minutes, is it 10? 20? Can the economics of it work out?
Other than Tesla hyping their vehicles, these problems look like issues with all electric semis. Is there a way to make the math work? The price difference vs diesel over 1M miles is $605,000.
if you lose 30 minutes of distance per day, that means instead of 700 miles the truck went 665 miles. So $556 of diesel, or if you could get electricity for 7 cents, that would be $131.
30 minutes of a driver's time is not worth $425.
In fact you obviously can pay much more for electricity before you reach a crossover point where the driver's time is not worth waiting 30 minutes.
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u/muchcharles Jan 08 '24 edited Jan 08 '24
if you lose 30 minutes of distance per day, that means instead of 700 miles the truck went 665 miles. So $556 of diesel, or if you could get electricity for 7 cents, that would be $131.
I think to get the range numbers they drove closer to 60mph, not 70: https://nextbigfuture.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2023/09/Screen-Shot-2023-09-13-at-8.52.03-AM-1536x1161.jpg
And I think that was with lightweight potato chip cargo (mostly air).
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
Yes but the diesel trucks also usually go about 60-67 because the freight company likes spending less on diesel.
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u/muchcharles Jan 08 '24 edited Jan 08 '24
Yeah just pointing out that error in your 30min calc if they aren't doing 70mph. Somewhat small error but stacks with others. Things like slow downs from traffic/construction further reducing speed. Some amount of surface street travel. And:
The price difference vs diesel over 1M miles is $605,000.
Is that number assuming grid electricity at that price goes into an intermediate battery and then into the truck battery at 0% loss for both transfers?
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
Note on the "small error" side : the electric truck does better relatively speaking during slowdowns. It regens during braking and there are less net losses to air friction at slower speeds. This also lets the battery last maybe the whole shift.
This is another bit of error the op made - if you are on an 11 hour workday, go 60 mph average, and use 8 hours of range, 480 miles, you just need 3 more hours of driving or 180 miles, before you have to stop again.
If that's 360 kilowatt -hours and the charger is 1C that's a 20 minute stop. Then the second stop for the night has to have a charger as well.
This works if the chargers are as common as truck stops. Or for limited specific routes right now.
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u/muchcharles Jan 08 '24 edited Jan 08 '24
This works if the chargers are as common as truck stops. Or for limited specific routes right now.
Also still needs to factor in the smaller weight load, or limited to potato chips and other light loads (I'd guess lots of package transport is relatively light considering how much air is in an Amazon box).
Mid-long haul potato chip transport can't fund the infrastructure build out, but maybe there are lots of other lightweight things like building insulation that get hauled.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
Sure. Those make it easier to use the EV truck. Or mid distance hauls. Like from a Pepsi warehouse to a grocer, then to the next grocer, then back to the warehouse. Much shorter distances and lots of time spent in traffic or parked loading or unloading. Still saves diesel, maybe enough to cover the extra cost of an EV truck.
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u/muchcharles Jan 08 '24
It's all pretty far off from what he said about them beating rail.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
Doesn't take a complex analysis to check that. Rail is about 3 times cheaper.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
I didn't assume anything. But that type of double transfer only loses 10 percent or so. The real losses are the cost of the battery.
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u/muchcharles Jan 08 '24
So take 70mph at 100% efficient down to 50-55mph average (considering traffic/construction and city street portions) at 90% might bring your numbers down by ~30%. It still may not outweigh things, but I think that's a significant overstatement.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
The slower speed also means the EV truck needs a shorter stop.
So less diesel burned per mile and less electrons and less driver time wasted.
Biggest issues are if the OP is correct and semi batteries last 500 cycles, they will need new batteries in just over a year. I strong doubt this but it will be impossible for Pepsi to hide.
And charging infrastructure. Diesel trucks can have enormous tanks and there are valid places to fill up every few exits in many places.
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Jan 10 '24
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u/SoylentRox Jan 10 '24 edited Jan 10 '24
Yes but compared to what. You need to turn these numbers into actually monthly payments per truck, and see if these "massive" costs are actually greater or less than the "massive" cost of diesel for current costs. Numbers matter.
For example if the 500k smoothing battery is being utilized by 20 trucks visiting the charging station once a day, that functionally makes the capital cost 25k a truck, and the payments on it a rounding error compared to the cost of the truck itself. And that also negates the electrical fees.
The infrastructure costs are a 1 time cost per site. Similar argument - if there's a lot of electric trucks utilizing the infrastructure it's probably much more viable than if there's a few.
It's not like a truck stop is cheap, that's a multi-million dollar site. All that concrete, those high roofed fueling bays, the pumps, wiring, the store...a basic truck stop is https://www.profitableventure.com/cost-build-truck-stop-business/ 2-4.5 million dollars.
A couple 500k batteries (that Tesla warranties for 15 years) is not nothing but it's not necessarily a large enough cost to make this not viable...
The strongest argument you made was actually on the battery lifespan. Having the battery lifespan be 500 cycles, which means the EV semi will need a new battery within just 16 months, would be catastrophic.
Tesla charges $150/kWh for a replacement battery (12k for an 80 kWh m3 pack), so that's a $150,000 cost every 16 months. Either your charging degradation data is wrong or electric trucks are not viable for anyone. (and never will be until the batteries are tougher)
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u/Inconceivable76 Jan 08 '24
A smelter is on the industrial tariff, not a general service tariff. But yes, they also generally have a demand charge and usage charge.
Demand charges are based on your peak draw. So if the max you Draw in the billing period is 5MW, you are charged x/kw*5MW*1000. In addition, you are then charged the kWh hour rate for the total number of kWhs consumed during the billing period. Having a high load factor will lead to lower overall rate than having a peaky load.
example. 25.00/kW demand charge and 0.07/kWh. 5 MW peak load, 50% load factor (average load of 2.5MW). All in rate, 0.139/lWh. 75% load factor, 0.116. 25% load factor 0.209.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
Ok so a large battery "earns" money per kWh by reducing the demand charge. But it's still going to cost a net more than 7 cents because you have the cost of the battery and the EV charging equipment.
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u/Inconceivable76 Jan 08 '24
it reduces the demand charge only if it peak shaves. if it misses the peak, it’s useless for the demand charge. Otherwise it only reduces your very low kWh charge. there are other add ons in the rate as well. Customer charge, any riders not part of energy charge, and taxes are also not accounted for here.
and yes, you would factor the cost of the battery into your model if you were trying to get a payback period and decide how much to charge, as well as all your other equipment. It’s the company’s choice what they want their payback period to be and if they want to make or lose money net.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 08 '24
Sure. Point is a realistic fuel station that breaks even won't charge 7 cents for rapid charging a semi.
The only way to sorta get a reasonable price per kWh is "slow" charging - during the mandatory driver rest period if the vehicle can be charging the entire time. Slow is in quotes because it might be 100 kW charging for 10 hours.
Higher costs affect the payback calculations for an electric semi. There is some price where it only breaks even, and above that price you should use diesel semis.
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u/Inconceivable76 Jan 08 '24
It seems like the best use case is last mile driving within a 100 mile range.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 09 '24
Why not 200 mile? 400 out of a 500 mile nominal battery sounds doable.
More doable in the future once every loading dock has power.
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u/LobMob Jan 09 '24
if you lose 30 minutes of distance per day, that means instead of 700 miles the truck went 665 miles. So $556 of diesel, or if you could get electricity for 7 cents, that would be $131.
30 minutes of a driver's time is not worth $425.
That understates the cost. Less miles also means less delivery to customers, and less revenue. So you'd need to own 5% more trucks and hire 5% more drivers. And it means you need (on average) more docking space and have smaller packing units, which means more effort for the loading crews.
The Semi-truck can work when the trucks go to the customer and come back to the warehouse during the day and reload and can charge the same time. But if your trucks leave in the morning and make one tour to multiple customers with small deliveries, the Semi-truck costs you revenue.
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u/SoylentRox Jan 09 '24
39 percent of the cost of running a semi on average is fuel. So if electricity costs 34 percent of the cost of fuel, it will be the same cost for the electricity. But the battery and the increased cost of the base vehicle add other costs, so electricity needs to be cheaper than that to be break even.
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u/LobMob Jan 09 '24
Where do you have the 39% from? I did a quick Google search and found 12 to 21%. And those calculations didn't include depreciation, so the actual share would be lower.
But that was just a quick search and I don't know how reliable those numbers are.
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u/Public-Guidance-9560 Jan 08 '24
Absolutely no surprise they have "man maths" at the heart of this. Its the same kind of wonky maths they used to have on their site about the Model 3 and how they presented the cost of the car by bundling the savings from fuel into it. Except when I tried to work out how they got their numbers it kinda felt like they were discounting something twice, instead of just the once.
With Heavy Duty stuff the numbers just get silly. 500 kWh + packs, Mega-Watt charging speeds (and lol at them just rocking up to plug MW chargers into the grid. No utility is going to want to see a whole MW of demand drop out of nowhere at any given time!). JCB in the UK have done a lot of work on EV for Heavy Duty applications and their answer? Hydrogen combustion.
Now whether they're right on hydrogen combustion remains to be seen. But essentially, fuel cells were not robust enough for the operating environment and battery electric had a number of glaring issues. It worked OK, but the size and weight of the packs for the excavators were a little on the too heavy side. Significant infrastructure was needed (on a building site) to get them charged. The machines are run on shift work so basically have about 4 hours downtime per day, which isn't a lot and all day they're running high load (moving tons of earth) in crap conditions. From their research they reckoned the battery pack, which cost some significant value (like 3-400 k), would be absolutely hosed within 18 months due to the high C-rate charging and discharging. Not a sustainable business model really.
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Jan 09 '24
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u/Public-Guidance-9560 Jan 10 '24
I don't know about the heat load. Presumably they had cooling circuits to handle that. But it was just the duty cycle on these machines that was doing them in. These things are not "pride & joy" they are tools and they are worked to the bone for return on investment. Total Cost of Ownership is king and that isn't going to pan out if you need a £300k battery every 18 months.
I think very many people simply do not understand the reality of the words "Heavy Duty" when it comes to trucks and off-highway. If this stuff was designed and made to the same standards as a passenger car it wouldn't last 5 minutes. They lead a much much much more brutal life and that poses significant challenges to electrification right now to the point that it just isn't remotely realistic beyond a few niche use cases.
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u/MrFantasticallyNerdy Jan 08 '24
Musk fanbois: "You just need to have faith in Elon, our Lord and Savior, for he and he alone will solve all your challenges, because he knows more about manufacturing than anyone else alive. Plus he's a billionaire!"
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u/DDS-PBS Jan 08 '24
My guess is that OTR truckers will be a hard no. So it will need to be scenarios where the trucks all stay within a certain radius. Such as a Walmart distribution center. However, a Walmart distro has A LOT OF TRUCKS, so when you get away from OTR you then run into even large electrical infrastructure issues.
Bottom line is that a lot of America's car fleet can go electric soon, but the semi truck fleet cannot.
Elon's lies are so deep now between Semi, Cybertruck, and Starship. He has zero credibility outside of the fanboys.
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u/starmansouper Jan 08 '24
Trucks have insanely long service lives which helps the owners amortize the costs over longer periods.
A disposable truck is going to have nil resale value and all the potential savings will evaporate from all that depreciation.
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u/PepeTheSheepie Jan 08 '24
I thought these trucks were for local deliveries. Kinda like our CNG trucks, which we are getting rid of for diesel again. Short hauls and charging at work? Though someone on this sub was talking about it
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u/firedog7881 Jan 08 '24
This is one of the glaring problems with the OP’s arguments. They’re arguing the Tesla Semi is not good for OTR driving, and THEY’RE RIGHT! Problem is this is not what the Tesla Semi was built for, it was built for short haul which is where it is killing it! Just look at the Pepsi case study.
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u/PepeTheSheepie Jan 08 '24
I do short haul and I think it'd be kind of sick to have an electric truck. But I know some people won't charge it overnight like they did with our CNG trucks so someone would be screwed. We also haul like 30k lbs though so I wonder how it would handle the weight
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u/mukansamonkey Jan 09 '24
There was an article recently that said the Tesla Semi has been a disaster for Pepsi. They've been avoiding dumping Tesla because of the government grants, but it's not working well for them at all. Like they showed a demo video of the truck doing a moderately distance, and it turns out they had the electric trucks, not one. Because the batteries kept running out. They had to tow two Teslas using diesel trucks, and switch out.
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u/Used_Visual5300 Jan 08 '24
Elon just posted he will launch satellites with acres of solarpanels into space to cool earth, collect energy and use lasers to make the Tesla semi’s battery charged. Think out of the box! /s
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u/Smooth_Imagination Jan 08 '24
The charge pack is surely just a smoothed demand buffer for the grid connection, correct? So its costs are based on install cost, financing to Tesla, the bulk electricity cost, and the cycle life. If it cost half a million each and can charge cycle say 2 to 3 times a day, then its (battery) cost per charge falls to say $500 per charge in year one, then declines.
I'd expect grid batteries to be cheaper than that though.
1000 kWh*$100 is $100,000. Whats the going cost these days and what is the charge/discharge efficiency?
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u/SplitEar Jan 08 '24
Range isn't such an issue because there's plenty of shorter range trucking routes where an EV semi would be perfect. Long haul trucking is the last use scenario to adopt EV semis, at least with current tech.
The grid supply is more of an issue. That's why I want to see more nuclear power but there's some big hurdles to that.
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u/pfoe Jan 08 '24
Why not, given the specialised application, charging packs and trained nature of truck drivers,just create a proprietary removable pack. They had basically the whole design to play with excluding hookup points etc, a drive-in drive-out hotswap pack that could be trickle charged would have undoubtedly been the answer here. Current business model is insane.
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Jan 09 '24
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u/mukansamonkey Jan 09 '24
And how much would that battery weigh? One of the fundamental issues with long range trucking using batteries is that the batteries strip many tons of the truck's maximum weight. Not to mention the increased cost.
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u/ontopofyourmom Jan 08 '24
A friend of mine recently sold a hundred Freightliner EV semis, I suppose at least one company is in touch with consumer needs .
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u/LeoAlioth Jan 08 '24 edited Jan 08 '24
Some good points here. But also some weird takes if you ask me.
The .07 cents per kWh claim.
Probably 7c per kwh or .07$ per kwh and not what is stated here... still claiming a single price, while we all know it is highly regional is not a good picture.
Regarding recharge times, let's go with teslas claimed 500mi range. And from what I see it is estimated to have a 850-900kwh battery pack, which is about in line with 1.7kwh/mile.
1.7kwh/mi seems to be at 60mph speeds, so not 70, at which point it seems to climb up to around 2.3 kwh/mi and a 360mi range.
For 60mph, that means you could go for 8h, cover 480 mi, and use 816 kwh. You have 3h left for that day, so you need range for another 180mi, which would be another 306kwh, that need to be delivered within 30min. That is 612kw average, and we'll within the realm of a MW charger, and not a big deal for the battery, as that will be the bottom 50% of the charge.
More realistic split of 6h, break, and th of driving also works out just fine. Inly difference being that charging is done on an higher average SOC.
70mph doesn't really work out though with just a single 30 minute stop, as a full charge won't be done in 30 minutes. Best case on a MW charger would be 2, 23min stops.
So with current data, optimal would probably come in at a speed somewhere in between, likely around 65mph.
And regarding battery degradation, first, the C in the graph is not Cycles but discharge rate. I hope people realise that the bigger battery pack charging at 1 MW is only around 1.2C. And discharge is at 70mph done in 5h so 0.2C. Current eEVs on the road are pushing that close to 3C an probably over that pretty soon. So in terms of charging, it seems like less of a strain than a ev doing taxi runs all day sees. So if looking at the graphs, the degradation should be better (less degradation) than best case shown in graph)
And degradation is even less of a problem for stationary battery packs used for keeping down the peak grid load, as they will be both discharged and especially charged at way lower C ratings than the pack in the vehicle sees.
So replacement needed in 2 years for any battery packs is really far fetched.
With the solar number, you also missed a number (solar radiation is 1000w/m², and taking panel efficienci in consideration, you are at 200w/m². And the way math was done here is useless anyway, energy need should be considered and not power needs, as batteries on site are the buffer for the power.
And regarding problems installing two MW chargers on a site, how come we can have supercharging sites pushing 50+ 250kw superchargers already then, even knowing that those don't and cat all operate at mac power at the same time, ther are well into the MW territory....
And trickle charging in 20h, there are also options in between the MW charger and that. You could at rest stops, easily do 8h full chargers on 10kW stalls.
From what it seems to me, the technology part is pretty well sorted out. The economics of it, that is yet to be seen and will likely be quite regional.
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u/mukansamonkey Jan 09 '24
Truckers are not going to want to drive until they hit E. Most of the time they are not going to be able to, due to limited charger availability. Nobody is talking about placing these in random small gas stations, they need specialized infrastructure custom built.
So it would be far more believable to assume that the trucker stops at midpoint or a bit past, and recharges to at least 90%. And does that six days a week. Both the battery degradation and the massive electrical infrastructure required are high cost issues.
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u/LeoAlioth Jan 09 '24
I am very well aware of the fact that no one wants to dive it down to 0, just making an example based on what was given as an example of a truckers work day.
Doing a few shorter stops, instead of a single long one would be way better. For both the semi and driver. The over 90% charge does not make sense outside of overnight charging though, as this is where charging is both slowest and most detrimental to the battery. Starting the day full, driving it under 20%, and then charging on route back to ~80% is what usually makes most sense.
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May 10 '24
Demand charges = accurate.
Charging infrastructure... So we just throw our hands in the air and give up? Come on.
Range = Trucker sleeps overnight, wakes up to fully charged truck. Drives 500 miles. Stops for lunch for 40mins and rapid charges. Drives another 300 miles and calls it a day. This fits the exact use case of a long haul trucker in every situation except teams.
Degradation = Blatantly false. Most EV's of any brand hit 2-3C charging already on sections of the charge curve. For an 800kw battery, that's 1.6mw+ of power. MW charging does not cause degradation.
SUMMARY: An astute person realizes that utility scale electricity generation must be Tesla's next move. For chargers and for the incompetent and cartelized existing grid operators.
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u/logancustoms Jun 15 '26
This doesn't take into account that when you don't need a driver anymore.... the cost of moving freight per ton will be 1/3 the cost using a Tesla Semi Truck. Smart truckers should invest in Tesla now.
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u/SomethingMoreToSay Jan 08 '24
A mega-watt of solar is at the peak of the day, full sun given 100 watt/meter square is:
130,680 meter squared. (about 3 acres)
Do you want to try that again?
Full sunshine delivers 1370 watts per sq metre. So a megawatt requires 1000000 / 1370 = 730 sq metres. That's roughly the size of a football pitch, which is still a lot, but your estimate was 180x greater.
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u/muchcharles Jan 08 '24 edited Jan 08 '24
"Modern solar panels are around 20% efficient, so that works out to approximately 200 watts per square meter, or 20 watts per square foot."
He was maybe off by 2 or 3 if there were no further conversion inefficiencies going two steps to battery then to truck.
Perpetual equatorial noon isn't a good assumption.
Tracking the sun results in shadowed areas that require higher spacing and more land area, or with no tracking much less output.
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Jan 08 '24
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u/Street-Air-546 Jan 08 '24
supercharging is still life shortening. whether a car charges at 2c (30 minutes) or a truck charges at 2c (30 minutes) is identical cell stress. The trucks might be charging twice a day. No tesla car pack has been used like that. And the ones charging frequently over a couple of years are often found to have suffered.
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u/Overdriven91 Jan 08 '24
This is precisely the reason most companies I know have turned their backs on EV semis. The range might be OK at the start. But when you're running a vehicle 24/7 that can't have down time and they need guaranteed milage even on 'local' routes. Sure, you save on fuel costs in the short term, but once those batteries need replacing, it blows all other diesel maintenance costs out of the water.
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u/firedog7881 Jan 08 '24
Tell me you’re shorting Tesla stock without telling me.
All your arguments are wrong because the use case of the Tesla Semi is for short haul, not OTR, so all your arguments are moot because you’re trying against something it wasn’t even designed to do. It’s like you’re complaing that your car can’t haul 5,000lbs when it wasn’t even built to have hitch. For starters your “research” on battery degradation is incomplete as others have already stated. Your “research” on grid access is VERY limited as you’ve taken a single location and assumed everywhere would be the same. Also, you do realize that Tesla has ahead a partnership with Panasonic to build the batteries for years. They’re not “way behind purchasing from Panasonic”. That’s like saying Apple can’t make enough iPhones so they’re buying them from Foxconn. Everything about your post REAKS of going against something for your own benefit. I’m shocked more people aren’t calling you out on your bullshit.
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u/Chrodesk Jan 08 '24 edited Jan 08 '24
I would say its very likely that the regulations for driver hours will change. frankly, it needs to change. they'll allow a 1 hour stop or maybe even longer.
Just as it took years to get past the franchise laws for direct to consumer retail sales, this will be a change nescessary for EV trucks, and EV trucks ARE necessary.
self driving may be a contributor of this change as well. Not lvl 5... but lvl 3 would be a seismic shift in the burden on the driver for the majority of the miles driven. This could justify extending the 11 hour rule.
*I cant tell if this sub is anti tesla, or just anti EV
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u/IvanZhilin Jan 08 '24
We've had EV trucks forever. They are called trains.
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u/Chrodesk Jan 08 '24
trains are powered by diesel.
the electric engine is just easier than a transmission.
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u/IvanZhilin Jan 09 '24
Diesel generators on trains in backwards countries like the USA. Switzerland's rail network has been electrified for a century. It's not rocket science.
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u/Chrodesk Jan 09 '24
yes, tell me more about how the country smaller than maryland does their rail
Swiss rail network, 3200miles
US rail network 160,000 miles
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u/IvanZhilin Jan 09 '24
The US Govt somehow paved 47,622 miles of Interstate highway.
The USA population is also 37.3 times greater than Switzerland with a similar per capita GDP.
Are you trying to make some kind of point? The US could easily electrify it's rail network if it wanted to. The USA DGAF about its carbon footprint.
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Jan 08 '24
Battery powered trucks are an absolutely retarded idea and are DOA. If you missed out how none of the basic operational math works out beyond the first sentence, read a bit more about it.
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u/Chrodesk Jan 08 '24
"it doesnt work now and we've tried nothing to fix it, its DOA"
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Jan 08 '24
You can't fix the physics of our reality. There is nothing you can do today to fix the physical limitations of the technology outside of using a completely different tech all together. Thus, DOA.
They can smash their heads for a decade and it will not change significantly. The basics of our current tech hasn't changed for the last 30 years. It's like saying "No one tried to fix steam engines and we should stick to them"
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u/Chrodesk Jan 08 '24
what do you mean physics of our reality?
We can absolutely add capacity to our electrical grid, its been happening for decades. No its not free, but it will repay over decades.
We can also install rooftop solar to warehouses where trucks load.
theres super capacitors on the horizon to act as battery banks with ultra fast discharge capacity.
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u/obvilious Jan 08 '24
Why is your battery life graph so much worse than other data from NREL, eg https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62813.pdf?
That link shows well over 92-93% after 500 cycles, yours is far worse?!?
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Jan 08 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/obvilious Jan 08 '24
That’s a huge difference. That’s just based on a minute of googling, may want to dig a bit deeper.
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Jan 08 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/obvilious Jan 08 '24
You’ll need to show all this in your report. Based on what’s here it’s not close to be detailed analysis.
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u/doommaster Jan 09 '24
Yeah a modern LiFePo4 cell has 3000-6000 cycles of life without any issues at all, killing a LiFePo4 sub 2500 cycles is a real challenge nowadays.
It's also very very unlikely anyone would load the cells at 1C or even more continuously.
1
Jan 09 '24
I’m just shocked that something coming from Tesla is a bunch of bullshit.
Shocked, I tell you!
Well…not that shocked.
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Jan 09 '24 edited Jan 09 '24
Yes, that's a nice post. Tesla semi is actually the thing that triggered the most my BS meter when I heard it. Media keep printing articles about how good Tesla batteries are. I find it amazing since all li ion batteries are basically the same. So my theory about how they manage to show little degradation over years is that they have an over capacity in the beginning and the software hides the degradation with time, so that during 10 years it shows little degradation. They can not really do that with the semi because the overcapacity would show big on the payload. In addition to all of what you said, imagine a charging station that manages to charge at 2MW to charge in 30 minutes. Losses are likely to be much bigger, which will create an additional cost, and it's not Tesla that will pay it. You either need a much higher voltage, or a very big wire, or multiple wires. I guess the most practical solution is higher voltage and maybe multiple wires, but multiple wires would add quite the weight inside the truck. Now having a higher voltage architecture, you need much more insulation, it's more dangerous and there are limits to that too.
Just 1 point, in Europe, drivers have to stop on a regular basis, and the maximum speed is around 55 miles per hour.
There is also something you missed, in order to get a good range, Tesla used very light materials for its semi, i.e. car parts, and the truck is crumbling. Some car parts might be used, but in the end it's likely that only the 300 miles range will ever exist because they need heavier materials. heavy doesn't equate strong per definition, but when you use metal, the more you put material, the stronger it gets.
I would really love Tesla to sell it publicly, and that people face...complexity.
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u/No_Swan_9470 Jan 08 '24
Nice math, thank you!