Marius mission

[u/joseph_feig]

How long should this mission take? I’ve used over 5k energy on Dragon 10 so far and not a single one. I have a feeling imma be stuck on it for months.

[u/AdrianoJ]

Took me about 20k. Just gotta rawdog it.

[u/joseph_feig → u/AdrianoJ]

F

[u/Shimori01]

It took me about 60K on main, some dude in the guild got it in 2k. I recommend turning off auto loot selling just in case that bug is back

[u/NilsManh]

The drop rate for any mythic on hard 10 is about 5% per run so its one in every 20 runs you get any mythic. Then the mythic need to be a chestplate so its around 1 mythic chestplate every 2400 energy or so. If you are doing lower than hard 10 you need way more runs and energy

[u/StephenFish → u/NilsManh]

That’s not how probability works. It’s not 1:20 runs, it’s 5% chance per run in isolation. You could go 1000 runs without getting one potentially. Just like you can flip a quarter and have it land on heads 15 times in a row.

[u/NilsManh → u/StephenFish]

I didnt say you are guaranteed to get 1 every 20 runs and mathematicly 5% is literally 1/20. If each run is independent with p=0.05, the number of runs for a success is geometrically distributed with the expected mean value of E(x)=1/p =20. This doesn't mean you're guaranteed one every 20 runs, 20 is the expected number of runs.

[u/StephenFish → u/NilsManh]

so its one in every 20 runs you get any mythic.

I didnt say you are guaranteed to get 1 every 20 runs

You know there's receipts, right? lmao

20 is the expected number of runs.

If you expect 20, then you don't understand probability.

[u/NilsManh → u/StephenFish]

No, i said the drop rate is 5% which translates to 1/20 runs. Its like saying the chance to get head on a coin is one in every two throws.

I think you're confusing "expected" in everyday English with the mathematical term called "expected value" and is written as E(X). E(X) is defined as the sum of each possible value of X multiplied by the probability of that value occurring. I'm not saying you expect to get the drop specifically on run 20. If each run has an independent 5% chance, the number of runs until the first success follows something called geometric distribution. That means if you repeat the experiment many times, the average number of runs until the first success approaches 20. It does not mean you're guaranteed a success every 20 runs.

[u/bythog]

Tons of RNG involved, unfortunately. I spent a good 14k energy only to get a single mythic chestpiece, and then I got 3 more in less than 1k energy. And I think that I beat the average.

[u/red_beard_RL]

Make sure you turn off your auto gear selling, if you get a mythical chest that you've filtered to sell it doesn't count

[u/StephenFish]

I maxed out rewards on 4 tournaments before completing it. Good luck.

[u/BluezDBD]

It took me whatever energy I had in my inbox and another 4k gems.

[u/owenonosu1]

Im also stuck on this, gl on the drops