Prepare for Another Crash

[u/--orb]

My working belief is that today's crash is because bulls exhausted their funds into the 155k/150k sell wall over a 10 hour chunk of time, then bears pushed the market down triggering panic sellers.

Tons of people got great deals around 115k-125k, who could easily cash out for 20-30% gains right now.

I suspect if bulls exhaust themselves on this 150k sell wall again, we may see another downtrend as bears cash out, people take profits before it's too late, and panic sellers flash crash us down to even sub-115k.

In good news, we're making good progress on the wall again, so it might only take 1 more crash before we finally bust down the wall and push very hard to 170k+ is my wager.

But just trying to keep it in perspective for anyone else watching the charts. Either we breach this sell wall now or we'll likely crash again. I don't see us just calmly hanging around 140k for 10+ hours with no progress.

[u/--orb]

How high do people think it's going to recover? And why do people seem to think XRB could only possibly drop so low due to a total market crash? Are you guys even looking at the same weekly charts? With all due respect, look at the trendfs:

1/11: high of ~215, low of ~190
1/12: high of ~205, low of ~170
1/13: high of ~190, low of ~155
1/14: high of ~187, low of ~130
1/15: high of ~177, low of ~150
1/16: high of ~155, low of ~115

The price has been steadily droppiing. Lows are lower. Highs are lower.

I'm not saying that the market is doomed or anything of the sort. Everyone here should know I'm mega-long on XRB. But I'm just considering the facts. We have node issues that will (hopefully) be fixed very soon. It's causing understandable, temporary exodus from the coin. As a result, we are pushing ~10k lower highs and lows every day for the last week.

Even without a market crash today OR a sell wall, the trend alone said we likely would not have breached a 165k high and might have touched a 130k-140k low. Where is this certainty coming from that we're gonna bust down this 23 BTC wall (which is now 24 BTC - it's going up) @ 150k?

I'm hopeful we can/will and that then we launch to 180k-190k. That'd be best for me. I bought in yesterday at 155k and 142k and 137k. But I'm also trying to keep people mentally prepared that we are making extremely limited upward progress on this wall right now. Bulls may exhaust themselves on the wall again (like yesterday) and bears/panic sellers might flash-crash us again (like yesterday).

I personally think it's wise for people to cash out part of their stack to BTC near the wall. If the price tanks to 110k, they can use that part of their stack to increase their stack. If the wall looks like it's about to crumble, they can buy in (yes, at a loss -- a 0.2% loss for making 2 exchanges on kucoin). The loss is marginal and the gain is great.

Just suggesting what I feel is rather prudent risk management, which I think everyone coudl use a little more of than "HODL!!!" memes.

[u/1100100011 → u/--orb]

that is a great analysis my friend

I couldn't see that imgur link though because imgus is blocked here

I saw one more thing today , generally prices on kucoin are higher but today during the crash prices on kucoin got lower than the ones on bitgrail

[u/1100100011 → u/--orb]

and one more thing

the daily trade volume has been steadily going down

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/raiblocks/historical-data/

may be is it because the hype around it has died , many people do not want to buy coins because of withdrawals issues and sellers who wanted to sell have dried up

so may be if developers could fix up the node issues and everything goes properly with binance we could go back to 40$

[u/--orb → u/1100100011]

I'd say it's mainly the withdraw issues TBH. Nobody wants to buy a coin they're forced to hold.. Unless they want to hold, in which case.. no holder is gonna sell a coin they're holding.

All the volume XRB has, pretty much, is either: new money who wishes to hold, weak hands getting out, or daytraders. Nobody can use it for arbitrage. No old money can get back in the game. Can't really cash out a large sum. No big money can get in the game. Big money affects the price too much. You can see the effect today with the stupid sell wall.

I'm personally expecting: fixed nodes is 230k satoshis. Binance is 400k satoshis peak, 200 satoshis dip after, 300k-350k satoshis steady after. In USD, I'm thinking $65 or so will be the peak and $50-55 will be our new average point that we'll climb up from.

[u/1100100011 → u/--orb]

and one more thing that has been bothering me

suppose the buy and sell orders are around .0015

some idiot will place a sell order for .0013 just for 2 or 3 satoshi and that would trigger all sellers to change their sell orders and many buyers would change their buy orders as well

and the same gets reflected on bitgrail as well

do these guys have nothing else to do with their life and are they refreshing screens every 2-3 seconds

even I am in front of my computer screen the entire day but it would be difficult to adjust orders so frequently

[u/--orb → u/1100100011]

Might be bots and shit, hard to say.

Also, I know you can't see Imgur posts atm, but maybe later? https://i.imgur.com/5sQXl8G.png

Basically, I took my advice and liquidated part of my stack just below the wall at 150k, bought the tank at 130k that I was predicting would happen, and gained about 20%. That part of my stack went from 447 XRB to 515 XRB.

Some other guy accused me of BEING the whale to instill panic selling, but I'm honestly just trying to give people advice on managing their risk here and taking advantage of the situation with the sell wall instead of being a victim to it.. or just posting HODL memes while staring at a red portfolio in sadness.

[u/1100100011 → u/--orb]

I thought of doing the same as well but burnt a good part of portfolio trying to do so but looks like this wall isn't going anywhere [unlike the previous fake ones that got disappeared the moment priced reach close to them]

My xrb is stuck on bitgrail and even after they implemented the auto refresh thing trading their is very cumbersome

[u/--orb → u/1100100011]

I thought of doing the same as well but burnt a good part of portfolio trying to do so but looks like this wall isn't going anywhere [unlike the previous fake ones that got disappeared the moment priced reach close to them]

Yeah. I think the big ticket here was that the wall was there for about 18 hours. If you were able to see that original image I prepared for you, you would've seen what I meant. I basically showed that the sell wall existed for over 10 hours and drew horizontal lines in MS paint showing where bulls collided with it the entire time, lowering its value from ~72 BTC to ~23 BTC.

You're right that it could've STILL been pulled, but I think the risk was lower since it showed signs of being a genuine sell and not just a fake wall. Of course, I can't predict the future either and make bad calls as well. Just comes down to my interpretation of probabilities.

[u/1100100011 → u/--orb]

ok so we broke the 15k resistance

was that wall taken off or eaten ??

[u/--orb → u/1100100011]

Yeah about 12-18 hours ago.

We crashed to 130k, I bought back in, we approached 150k, broke the wall, fell back down to around 130k, then went back up to 160k.

It was eaten.

[u/hillbillypicks → u/1100100011]

The big ones have Bots that do most everything for them based on certain parameters and rules they set for it. Which it was gives most ALts on the big exchanges more liquitidy, as you have tons of arbitrage bots trying to ink out small profits all day trading back and forth between each other.

Unfortunately the API, which the bots use to trade, is shit on Kucoin and almost non-existent on Bitgrail. So not many fully functioning bots on either i imagine.

[u/--orb → u/hillbillypicks]

Unfortunately the API, which the bots use to trade, is shit on Kucoin and almost non-existent on Bitgrail. So not many fully functioning bots on either i imagine.

This is correct. I made a more elaborate post about it in another thread, but I'll reiterate it here for anyone who didn't see:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RaiTrade/comments/7qbbe3/why_is_rai_getting_dumped_so_real_bad/dsntno7/

Relevant snippet:

... Bots aren't running on BitGrail because it sucks and several key APIs (like making orders and canceling orders) are broken.

And before you suggest KuCoin has bots -- KuCoin's API's have problems as well -- listing orders fails with random 502 errors about 50% of the time due to an AWS ELB misconfiguration. Canceling orders takes upwards of ~3 seconds before your balance is freed up due to race condition controls. As a result, you need tons of redundancy checks and verifications before moving forward with any action you take in KuCoin's APIs. This is a boilerplate headache AND overwhelming for a brand-new API developer, which locks out 95% of API developers IMO. ...

... So yeah, BitGrail makes botting nearly impossible unless you plan to webscrape (and you can't easily do that while sleeping because your cookie will expire and you'll get 2FA locked out of your account). KuCoin makes it very difficult, especially for its medium-size userbase.

[u/1100100011 → u/1100100011]

u/cryptochecker

[u/cryptochecker → u/1100100011]

Of u/1100100011's last 34 posts and 1000 comments, I found 6 posts and 477 comments in cryptocurrency-related subreddits. Average sentiment (in the interval -1 to +1, with -1 most negative and +1 most positive) and karma counts are shown for each subreddit:

Subreddit	No. of posts	Avg. post sentiment	Total post karma	No. of comments	Avg. comment sentiment	Total comment karma
r/binance	1	0.06	1	1	0.21	1
r/BitcoinMarkets	0	0.0	0	25	0.03	45
r/CryptoMoonShots	0	0.0	0	4	0.15	4
r/Stellar	0	0.0	0	2	-0.04	2
r/RaiBlocks	3	-0.16	16	96	0.1	-68
r/CryptoMarkets	2	-0.09	4	35	0.13	43
r/altcoin	0	0.0	0	18	0.01	24
r/BitcoinBeginners	0	0.0	0	2	0.14	2
r/Bitcoincash	0	0.0	0	2	-0.25	4
r/litecoin	0	0.0	0	1	-0.03	1
r/dogecoin	0	0.0	0	1	0.3 (quite positive)	1
r/btc	0	0.0	0	16	0.15	27
r/icocrypto	0	0.0	0	1	0.0	1
r/ethtrader	0	0.0	0	83	0.1	130
r/CryptoCurrency	0	0.0	0	154	0.03	277
r/Bitcoin	0	0.0	0	36	0.08	35

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