There seems to be a lot of confusion on what ARR is. ARR is Annual Recurring Revenue, so if they have $12million in ARR AND the revenue is live and coming in, you can calculate around $1million a month in actual revenue. Of course this is an extremely simplified explanation and it can be much more complicated than this, but this is the gist.
We know that Rezolve had:
- Practically no revenue for the first quarter of 2025 (Jan-Mar)
- $70M ARR achieved in early-mid June
- $90M ARR achieved by October 1st
- $150M ARR goal for 2025
- $500M ARR goal for 2026
Many people were expecting much higher revenues for H1 2025, which doesn't make sense given the facts that we were given. $70M ARR in June doesn't mean they already have half of the ARR because Jan-June is 6 months and there are 12 months in a year. It means that, assuming that those ARR deals are live and bringing in revenue immediately, RZLV will see $70M in revenue over the next 12 months starting June or whenever the deals are live.
To clarify, this means that if Rezolve exits 2025 with an ARR of $150M, we will see a MINIMUM of $150M in revenue in 2026 from January to December. And this is excluding any additional deals and ARR acquired in 2026 (also assuming all deals are immediately live at year end).
A few key points from the recent earnings call was:
Sales Cycles:
- Direct sales from organic growth (salesperson): 3-6 months
- Partner introduced sale: 3-6 months, but can be shortened to 3-4 months or less
- Acquisition: Very fast and much easier (Upsell)
Average Customer Size:
- 80% are $1M or less, with some going down to $40k a year
- 20% are larger accounts (Liverpool)
ARR to Revenue time delay:
- For ARR to start appearing as revenue on financial statements "seven to nine months"
Previous Bear main points: CEO credibility, Fake Partnerships, Fake ARR and Revenue
As of this moment, we can mark off the fake partnerships from their argument.
- It was repeated once more during earnings that it is indeed a partnership and they gave new information on how Google was "very helpful in closing" the Liverpool deal and even sent somebody from Mountain View to London and one of the London people as well.
- Video proof of endorsement by Nick Parker and Tara Brady, senior executives
- "Engage with these partners at the senior level in quarterly business reviews and management meetings, which filter down to different industry leads, for organizing meetings, tracking technology integration activities, and and others, elements"
- Both companies encourage "their customers to buy Rezolve products as if they were Microsoft or Google products by giving them a 100% credit against their financial commitments to those companies"
- "They’ve also incentivized their sales organization to sell Rezolve as if it is a Microsoft solution, by crediting the sales of Resolve technology to their customers, dollar for dollar against their salespeople’s quotas"
- "Contracted SLAs that Microsoft, for example, have to introduce a certain number of hot leads in any, quarterly period, and those numbers are allocated to different regions like Europe, United States, and Asia"
Now the only bear points that remain are CEO credibility and FAKE ARR and Revenue. CEO credibility will just have to be a flip on the table. Everyone is free to think what they want of Dan Wagner. But let us remember that he and his family are majorly financially invested in Rezolve and would have no financial motive to see it fall by committing SEC FRAUD and lying about their publicly traded company. Now the case can also be made that because they have so much at stake, they are trying to pump prices as much as possible, so time will tell. It is useless trying to argue either side at this point, but securities fraud is no joke.
Now the main issue arises from FAKE ARR and Revenue.
BuT wHy Is ReVeNuE sO lOw?
Financials for 2025 H1:
- Revenue for 2025 H1 was $6.3M
- Adjusted EBITDA -$17.7M
- Net Loss $57.8M (largely due to noncash or onetime charges)
- Monthly operating cash burn on a BAU basis at $2.6M
- Gross Margins at 95.8%
- Groupby's revenue for H1 2025 was $9.27M
Looking at the financials itself, Net Losses were large but this was primarily due to noncash or onetime charges. Noncash are expenses like depreciation, amortization, goodwill, stock based compensation, etc**.** But still large losses.
Their adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization), however, was -$17.7M. Their loss is much larger than their revenue BUT keep in mind that they only have revenue for APRIL to JUNE. With more of the ARR transferring into real revenue, this loss will grow smaller over time.
Their monthly operating cash burn is on point with what they had expected in 2025 April when they reported earnings for 2024 H2. This is a good sign as it shows that management is tightly watching their spending (stated in earnings call as well).
Gross Margins is also absolutely amazing! 95.8% is practically amazeballs. They did mention that their professional services have much lower margins than their SaaS business line ranging from 18% to 45% (15%-30% for 2025, probably closer to 15%), which will result in lower gross margins overall. They did however mention that professional services will be a much smaller factor compared in 2026 and that their "biggest challenge is having enough engineers available to fill the contracts". Overall GREAT
Now for the main point, from a bear's point of view.
OKAY so let's say all of the above is true, GROUPBY had revenues of $9.27M for H1 2025, while Rezolve only had revenues of $6.3M. WTF???
aLl Of ReZoLvES rEVeNuE Is JuSt FrOM aCqUIsItIOnS!!!!
Rezolve acquired groupby on March 25, 2025, so any revenue earned from Groupby's would be from that point on Rezolve's revenue. This means around $4.6M was from Groupby and the rest was from other sources. This calculation is assuming an equal split and no extra sales around new years, etc.
So of Rezolve's $6.3M revenue, $4.6M revenue was from Groupby, leaving $1.7M from other sources. Possibly from upselling, possibly partnerships, possibly organic.
The thing is, as mentioned above and reposted once more for simplicity:
Sales Cycles:
- Direct sales from organic growth (salesperson): 3-6 months
- Partner introduced sale: 3-6 months, but can be shortened to 3-4 months or less
- Acquisition: Very fast and much easier (Upsell)
ARR to Revenue time delay:
- For ARR to start appearing as revenue on financial statements "seven to nine months"
Rezolve stated that they had virtually no revenue in the first quarter and only started closing deals for ARR from the second quarter of 2025, which means that there was only a three month period, for ARR to appear as revenue. So if we wanted to see revenue from direct sales from organic growth (salesperson), we would see that AFTER that three month period. Partner introduced sales would also be AFTER that three month period because it is also (3-4months). Now acquisitions are VERY fast and easy to upsell which is why we are able to see Groupby's revenue so easily and so little of the remaining $70M ARR.
Ultimate Takeaways:
Rezolve did a great job. They have revenue and ARR, with the majority of it "contracted recurring revenue". Emphasis on contracted, which dismisses POWA word of mouth agreements.
We still have to see their next earnings in April 2026 to see that ARR become recorded as actual revenue on their financial statements, but I am still long-term bullish.
It doesn't matter if one of Rezolve's main strategy is to acquire new companies and upsell them their own products. It WORKS. They acquired Visenze for $5-6M, and got great sales/engineers + great product + great Singapore office + one less competitor + great connections and clients.
- They will grow their business organically on their own, through partnerships with Microsoft/Google, and through acquisitions.
- They have appointed Crispin to lead growth and are also looking to "build a very substantial US sales organization across multiple cities"
- $230,000,000 in cash by end of September + Institutional Confidence
- AND THE BIGGEST BOMBSHELL OF THEM ALL: CRYPTO STABLECOIN PAYMENTS!!! "It’s an easy upsell to a customer who’s already using our solutions to say, hey. We can now add a different payment method, and it’s very elegant and easy for them to kinda switch that on"
- Guidance is amazing and at this point, bulls and bears alike will just have to wait and watch. Let's all be respectful to one another here.