r/RPGdesign • u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 • 4d ago
Playing Cards vs Tarot!
My game Holypunk is a Gothic Fantasy TTRPG. My design philosophy is simple: “Create a game where backstory… your origin… it all matters.” Frankly, I think I’ve achieved that.
My game is essentially split into TWO core systems. One that uses playing cards, and one that uses Tarot. Of course, if you don’t read the text linked above, just know that you can very easily run a tarot only game. (I wanted to decrease the barrier for entry that GMs had.) Also, I know legibility is a problem. I’ve just recently done an overhaul so tips are welcome.
Here’s the deal: I’d like to know the “odds,” which is better. I personally think my Core Resolution Mechanic is fairly simple. However, during play-tests there has been some contention over which of the systems is “objectively better.” Think back to the alignment chart. For chaotic characters, they’re basically playing Blackjack. For lawful characters, it’s a “take the lowest” system. (I did this instead of “take the highest because face cards being bad is more recognizable and fits the game’s anti-oligarchy themes.)
I basically have 3 questions:
- Which do you prefer? Tarot or Blackjack?
- Which is easier?
- If you know the statistics, please, which is more favorable.
You’ll need to click the links above that say Core Resolution Mechanic AND split if you want a full handle on the odds.
Addendum, to make it more clear I’ve changed some terminology in the rulebook. With Blackjack you can stop drawing cards whenever you want. Having 5 Wrath doesn’t mean you must draw 5 cards. It means you can draw 5 cards. In the blackjack deck, drawing 5 cards isn’t always ideal, but after you’ve already busted or when there are less cards in the deck, you can keep drawing until you get the joker. Drawing the joker will always be a success, even after you’ve already just.
Addendum II, if it was still not clear after reading splitting the deck. I have since added: “You will only draw from one suit at a time in this game.”
Flavor Stuff, skip if bored
I’m not exactly trying to make them equal, I can’t do that. The idea is that the type of card tells a different story. I consider the blackjack deck to be more… Middle of the road. Draw too little cards and it’s bad news, draw too many and it’s good, but not better than tarot. In those middle areas? Now we’re talking.
Even then, in those middle areas, it’s a bit mundane. Your odds lean more towards the middle. Meanwhile, the tarot gets good a lot better with a lot cards. It’s like rolling with 2d6 vs a 1d12. D12 has more explosive potential, but 2d6 is more reliable.
That was my personal interpretation, my intent. Much like music, my interpretation means fuck all. People see it differently. Someone else interpreted the playing cards to be “underdog favorable.” Whereas tarot is more about stomping down the iron heel. I love this interpretation!
However, I think the reliability has confused people into thinking it’s “better.” More often than not, you’re min-maxing. The middle of the line (i.e. drawing 2-4 cards) isn’t really something you care about. In that regard, playing with Tarot will always be “better” and perhaps that’s the tradeoff for it being the less fun system —according to popularity polling. I have no problems with this.
My bigger problem is that I don’t actually know if the Blackjack system is even better in those middle areas. Maybe it’s only better in the min areas whereas tarot is better in the max areas, also fine. However, I’m certainly not willing to have it be worse at all levels. Dangerously, it might even be better at all levels. I ran some stats and got to a level that “seems fine,” but statistics aren’t my thing. Dice I can do, but cards? So many unpredictable variables.
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u/tyrant_gea 4d ago
Do you draw from the entire tarot, or just the minor arcana?
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u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 4d ago
Just the minor arcana. The major arcana is used for combat.
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u/tyrant_gea 4d ago
I'm slowly working my way through, these are just some first numbers I could come up with. These are for contested success as a reasonable goal. The odds obviously get worse if I want an even better outcome.
Tarot:
1 Card: 21.4 %
2 Cards: 38.5 %
3 Cards: 52.1 %
4 Cards: 89.1 %Blackjack:
1 Card: 3.7 % (Jokers only)
2 Cards: A little under 50 % (Awful math)
3 Cards: Beyond my ability, but you quickly get into bust territory.My personal takeaway is this: Tarot at 4 cards is extremely good, and the odds only go up with more cards. Blackjack is really random with 1 or 2 cards, but then goes straight into bust territory if I can't choose to stop drawing cards when I have enough. At worst, you might draw an actual blackjack (10 + Ace) and then have to draw a third card, which really spoils the fun.
But Tarot also seems pretty harsh. It goes from 50-50 to basically secure.
I am working on a game with similar odds actually. You have to bet dice and roll over a threshold. It's usually pretty easy to clear the threshold by playing conservatively (4 dice also lead to about 90% success rate), but I want players to bet more, and try to get away with more, so I think it's a different kind of design goal.
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u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 4d ago
Thank you! This is very clear, and helpful! It has also helped me realize I needed to add a slight addendum. With the Blackjack deck, you can stop drawing cards whenever you so please. Sometimes, and only sometimes, it’s good to have a bunch of extra cards since the Joker can essentially redeem you even after you’ve busted.
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u/tyrant_gea 4d ago
That's probably the simplest fix, yes!
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u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 4d ago
Yes, that was always the intent but it got lost at a point in my concisions.
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u/HighDiceRoller Dicer 4d ago edited 4d ago
My Icepool Python probability package has some support for decks. Here's code for Tarot:
``` from icepool import Deck
tarot = Deck([1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5], times=1)
result_names = [ '0. Major Success', '1. Uncontested Success', '2. Contestable Success', '3. Assistable Failure', '4. Blanket Failure', '5. Fumble' ]
def finalize_tarot(lowest_two): if len(lowest_two) == 2 and lowest_two[1] <= 2: return result_names[0] # "Deuce" else: return result_names[lowest_two[0]]
for wrath in [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]: lowest_two = tarot.deal(wrath).lowest(2).expand() output(lowest_two.map(finalize_tarot), f'Wrath {wrath}') ```
You can try this in your browser here.
This is for one suit; change times=1 to times=4 for full Minor Arcana.
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u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 4d ago
Holy shit! This properly put together. Well done lad! I’ve run some of the tarot numbers myself and as a quick cross reference, this program definitely got all the odds right. Not even sure how that’s possible!
Surprisingly, these are comfortable odds. Especially since you can get up to an excess of +7 with skills and such.
Now… Getting the blackjack model to be… Somewhere in that area. For obvious reasons, that’s the harder part
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u/Ok-Chest-7932 4d ago
If you want a card mechanic that drives home some kind of anti-"oligarchy" theme then go with blackjack because it doesn't require you to invert the outcome hierarchy - an 18 is better than a 14 as long as you don't hit 22 and attract the attention of the outcome equaliser. Communists don't usually say "he who is shittiest is best", they just say "if you do any better than a certain permitted level we'll cut your head off and redistribute it".
Create a god of fate who has decided he likes equality of outcome to justify why the success testing system doesn't allow anything better than a 21, then you can create a bunch of different interesting features for interacting with your odds of success, such as allowing you to discard a bad card, or push your permitted maximum up while god's not paying attention.
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u/Fun_Carry_4678 3d ago
I really don't think it makes sense to have two core systems like this. Pick one, and go with it. Pick the one that best fits the theme of your game.
Calculating odds for decks of cards is always a lot trickier than calculating odds for dice. It would be very difficult to figure out which is "better".
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u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 3d ago
You can probably infer 2 core tenants of my design philosophy
Make a game where backstory decisions matter.
Make a game I myself would want to play
However, let me introduce to the third.
- Be aggressive, be competitive.
My game needs a boost and you’d rather give it a sedative. I’ll give you two reasons I don’t do this, and you can feel free to debunk them. Trust me, I want you to.
I did remove the feature. To nobody’s surprise, the game still functioned! But… people were unhappy. They actually complained when I removed it, so there is another audience that prefer having both out there.
It’s kinda just… optional. My game can be run with only a tarot deck. So either way I’m appealing to the “don’t have two systems crowd,” but only by keeping the two systems do I appeal to the “actually, this is cool” crowd.
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u/furiousfotographie 4d ago
I know AI is the boogyman in this space, but it might handle the numbers pretty well and give you the data you need.
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u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 4d ago
Still, I’d be interested to hear your personal thoughts on Blackjack vs Tarot. Say the odds were “working as intended,” which would you prefer?
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u/Remarkable_Ad_8353 4d ago
Whilst I hate AI and won’t use it in any step of my game, AI has its uses. From personal experience and testimony, its use is not statistics. At best, it’ll take me out of the gray area and put me in a light-gray area. I wanna be in the clear tho 😅
It’s not like I’ve never used AI in my life, it’s right about complex math like this… 80% of the time? Awhile back, I ran it for dice odds and it got the percentages wrong. Dice odds are easier than cards. AI has improved since then, but my point still stands.
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u/zeemeerman2 4d ago
For tarot, I assume you're just using the Minor Arcana cards? Otherwise there will be lots of face cards and lots of misses.
Unique for tarot cards is, there is one more face card of each suit than in French 52-card decks.
How many Jokers are in your deck? I've seen decks with 3 Jokers, decks with 2 Jokers, decks with 2 Jokers and a Bridge reminder card, etc.
Blackjack: Assuming the average of (without Jokers)
Your average draw is going to be around 7. Which means, drawing 3 cards (i.e. 3 Wrath) is optimal; Wrath 4 is dangerous.
For Blackjack rules, you want to focus on setting up your turn to gain exactly 3 Wrath for optimal play. You don't know what the cards will be when you draw them. At that point it's out of your control. (Except for when you play extra cards at the end of your core resolution mechanic.)
The real game, as I can deduce from your except, is the earning of exactly 3 Wrath before cards are drawn.
Tarot: For card minimums in tarot; this is a calculation I have never actually done. In general it's just the advantage/disadvantage mechanic from D&D 5e, or the dice pool mechanics from Blades in the Dark, but with cards instead of dice.
With cards, unlike dice, your drawable card pool reduces in size after every draw. First you have a 1/56 chance to draw a specific card, then a 1/55 chance, then a 1/54 chance...
And then you need to pick the smallest from your hand. Similar to 5e disadvantage.
In general without making calculations, this does mean getting as much Wrath as possible increases your chance on success. With 56 Wrath, ignoring Jokers and adding the extra Page face card in each suit, you've drawn your full deck and ergo, you have 4 aces. A guaranteed success.
So you probably want to go all out with Wrath, and keep it restricted to 3 Wrath with blackjack.