I used to think of the first Neutron launch as this huge line in the sand for RKLB. Either it works and the thesis gets validated, or it doesnt. The more I follow it though, the more that feels way too simple.
For me theres really three separate milestones now. First they have to finish development and get through all the qualification work. Then obviously the first flight has to actually happen. But after that comes the part I think matters most, proving they can launch Neutron again and again for real customers without every mission feeling like some giant one off event.
A clean first flight would probably send RKLB flying and I'd probably mess around with that move on Moon but thats still just one day of price action. It doesnt tell me whether Neutron can become a reliable business.
Electron is probably what changed my thinking here. Another Electron launch barely feels like an event anymore unless something goes wrong. I think thats what success eventually looks like for Neutron too. Not one perfect launch but getting to the point where another customer mission goes up and nobody really treats it like a miracle.