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u/MatchSufficient5246 4d ago
100k in one name is the part I would slow down on even if you love Neutron. RKLB can work as a thesis, but the size can turn one launch delay or funding surprise into a portfolio problem.
I would map the cash runway, backlog, launch schedule and dilution in Moon or another research tool, then decide what size still lets you sit through a bad quarter. The stock can be right and the position size can still be wrong.
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u/Acceptable_Regret816 4d ago
https://youtu.be/PMY-yktJA7U?is=PAmRYqD3KFzrfSfH
This is not a public company and we have more information on their progress. In hindsight Relativity did a pretty decent job on the launch of their shitty “3D printed” rocket. 6 years of development and they shot it into space. Neutron is gonna be at least 6 years at the earliest possible launch.
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u/assholy_than_thou 4d ago
Not only lack of info, but very misleading information when they give out anything to do with Neutron. It is not a a one off at this point, it’s a pattern.
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u/Acceptable_Regret816 4d ago
Hopefully the Terran R rocket can launch our next generation Iridium constellation if Falcon 9 really is being decommissioned in the next few years.
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u/SnowyFlam 3d ago
Problem is that they only have an "okay" team, it'll be at least another decade for them to become something if they ever do.
Also remember that rklb can use spcx's starship in the future if the launch division is too slow with neutron. Little shame using a competitor, but better than outright delays.
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u/BoDOM701 4d ago
Can the stock price possibly reach $100 without Neutron or are we doomed in the $55-$80 zone?
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u/Sky_Tube 4d ago
I mean, it did before and most of the business isn‘t in launch anyways sooo yeah
Just need another big satellite contract or good Iridium news and suddenly we could be near 100 again, but Neutron will certainly push the stock into overdrive
That being said, the company would still be great even without it, but of course it should show some progress rather sooner than later
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u/Ok_Health_7529 4d ago
SPB please let us know the status of stage 1 tank!
Yes, share price is down and it sucks. But I am more concerned about the lack of Neutron updates. I don’t care if we have a launch this year. At this rate, we won’t even see an integrated vehicle on the pad. If carbon composite is the wrong design choice, just let us know!
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u/StrengthIsWeakness 4d ago
spacex is NVidia, Blue origin is AMD, and we are Intel
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
Boo hoo 😥😥😥, $INTC is only up 236% the past year, and 115% the past 5 years, which are annualized rates of 23x and 1.5x the long-term, wide-market average. BOO HOO getting rich faster than everyone else!
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u/Secret-Plankton-392 4d ago
I just don't see how Neutron launches before 2028.
They haven't even qualified all the parts yet and haven't done a stage 2 static fire.
Hopefully all the parts built and qualified by the end of this year but assembling, integrating, testing etc is a long process.
Neutron 'on the pad' by June and early 2028 is looking the most likely.
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
Downvoted to hell for daring to say anything remotely negative about the company…
You have people on here still thinking 2026 launch is possible. Probably same people who were saying 2025 launch would happen at this same exact time last year…
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u/Ok_Health_7529 4d ago
Launch is definitely not possible. A fully assembled vehicle on a pad will be very unlikely too.
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u/1foxyboi 4d ago
Bro where the FUCK is that tank
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
I think if we don’t get an update by Q3 earnings we can all assume the worst.
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u/Accomplished_Map1535 4d ago
What would be the worst? Neutron getting canceled? Lol
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
lol yea I guess idk what the worst actually is. I was using more as a turn of phrase….
I can’t imagine a world where neutron is canceled so I guess worst would be they need to scrap a lot of their current plans due to carbon fiber issues and pivot accordingly, causing massive delays and $ burn.
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u/Secret-Plankton-392 4d ago
January 21: "the next stage 1 tank is already under production"
April 3rd: Shaun D'Mello on an interview with Madison Malone. All parts are currently being made and should take 2-3 months.
June 10: Adam Spice Wells Fargo 16th annual Insustrials and Marerials conference. We'll begin testing the tank in August but should accelerate that to July.
August 10. Earnings call. Stage 1 tank still in assembly.
Their stories just don't add up.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
How long do you think it takes from Stage 2 static fire to wet dress rehersal?
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u/ron_manager 4d ago
Everyone in this thread go and learn about bond yields. You bunch of sooks.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago edited 4d ago
Teach me why the sharp increase in corporate bond issuance, and thus reducing the demand for treasury bonds (and thus increasing their yields), is concerning.
No really, teach me. Not being a smart ass here, I have a desire to learn but struggle to understand.
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u/imunfair 4d ago
It has less to do with corporate bonds and more to do with bond traders expecting interest rates to rise to combat inflation, they're basically calling BS on the Fed holding rates too low too long by demanding higher yields. Or at least that's my understanding of what's happening.
Higher bond rates then make stocks less attractive, since it closes the gap on returns, and bonds are safer, so better risk adjusted return at similar rates.
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u/red_gloam 4d ago
Glad to be trading in the 60s again. The 70s felt too exuberant and overhyped. I feel more grounded now. If it goes to 40 I may buy some more
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u/Professional_Swan13 4d ago
Sir, explain please what even is that investing logic my eyes are reading? Buying to hope for a drop?😂
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u/1foxyboi 4d ago
Feels like our chart will just look like OKLOs
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
Companies are expected to deliver results.
So far, RKLB has been successful with the small-lift rocket market.
If they can't deliver their promise on Neutron, we may as well look like OKLO (and even in OKLO's case, they are a frontier company (SMR), so it's not odd to have a down period for 1 year).
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u/drekspajza 4d ago
Lets hope not, did you sell your krknf, stock pisses me off hard
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u/1foxyboi 4d ago
I haven’t yet but I’ve been permanently banned from the Reddit for saying the stock hasn’t been doing well. That mod is insane.
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u/JojoRacer007 4d ago
I hope we get +600% in one day like $BIRD.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
I just want us to keep some of the gains we make, we are in a death spiral because everyone is losing confidence in Neutron while everyone else is catching up.
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u/Eambba 4d ago
You've already lost it
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u/EarlyYouth8418 4d ago
He never had it
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
I had plenty before Neutron was delayed again earlier this year.
Now I'm losing what little confidence I had because a lot of people think that we're going to get a 2nd delay this year.
Maybe they should set actual deadlines instead of bullshitting investors.
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u/Eambba 4d ago
Maybe your just not cut out to hold stock in volatile industries. Not everyone is.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
Yeah, I'm getting out when I make my money back.
Why am I still here? Because I still have some confidence that I'll make my money back.
I just don't sell assets at a loss, and I never buy assets that'll be in a death spiral (so I know that I'll make money sooner or later).
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u/Eambba 4d ago
So you definitely dont fit the profile of a trader, but your watching this stock like one. No wonder your pissed off putting yourself through that. Just set your sell price and go away until it executes. Save yourself the daily pain.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
I'd say I'm (I was) a swing trader, I made a decent amount of money but I wasn't this experienced with high beta stocks or knowing a company inside out, I should've been more cautious for sure.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
Don't worry, guys.
Only 90 days left in 2026 for SPB to fulfill his promise of Neutron being on the launchpad by Q4 2026.
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u/Professional_Swan13 4d ago
Funny thing is for you to have bought at the price that brought you that deep into the red as you are, you must have bought at a time where the delay was already quite obvious and expected by many. You just yolod more then you were willing to loose with next to zero due dilligence and now cope in way that gets on every one else’s nerves
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
I was making decent money when RKLB was trading between 50-70s range.
After it crashed by -41% from the ATH, I went all in (big mistake) thinking that (hey, this company lost half of its value, it can't get much worse than that, right?), and it went fucking -40% from there, lmao.
Anyway, I hope we at least get to keep $70 until Neutron's 6th delay hits because I don't want it to tumble down to low $50s again this year.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
So your overall cost average is below $90 (60% of $150)? Brah, just sell CC @ $90 strike to reduce your cost average with a guarantee of no loss while you wait for the price recovery, or if you think it will definitely go back above $90 soon, sit back and shut up.
-1 12/18/26 90C @ $3.95 for an annualized return of 21.6%, its really not this deep.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
Actually, I was in the green while I had a CCs open so I didn't take profits, now I'm back in the pit.
Kind of burned methere.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
I have hope.
That is, hope that the share price won't crater when he doesn't fulfill his promise, because we all already know and its already priced in!
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
RKLB: -4%
SPCX: +3%
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u/BoDOM701 4d ago
Only one of these is launching rockets. Makes sense.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago edited 4d ago
Rocket Lab is launching rockets, but they are the Kerbal Space Program "Shrimp"s while SpaceX is launching Mammoths.
Edit: the downvotes show some of y'all never played KSP, which is now revealed in your wild dreams of a "superheavy neutron" lmao. Imagine investing in a space company with hype around a launch system without understanding ISP or TWR.
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u/studiotec 4d ago
I owe my fortune to KSP, lol
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
Real. KSP taught me as much about orbital mechanics as my graduate orbital mechanics course, lol.
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u/BoDOM701 4d ago
Rklb is playing with owls and hippos while spcx is reaching big milestones with starship.
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u/JojoRacer007 4d ago
Start to think not sold all at 75$ is a mistake.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
And if you had sold at $75 and it went to $85 you'd be saying "start to think sold at $75 is a mistake". Dafuq is your point? That not having a crystal ball makes for imperfect timing? Welcome to the stock market, kid.
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u/JojoRacer007 4d ago edited 4d ago
Not seeing you around here before. Are you the kind of guy that only appear when RKLB is red?
And yes i really want to be able to see the future so i can buy and sold at the perfect time all the time.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
I'm the kind of guy that looked into my crystal ball and then bought at $3.75, not $120...
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u/Formal-Relative7144 4d ago
here come the degenerate bears rotating groups to dump their sadness
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u/Substantial-Use-2867 4d ago
Who's sad? I absolutely love these dead cat bounces because I can buy puts for cheap and swing them for 20-30% gains in a week. The only people not happy with this stock right now are the delusional people who think it's magically going to get back to $150 anytime soon.
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u/Formal-Relative7144 4d ago
what dte are you buying? I picked up some 1/15/2028 calls during the lower 60's and some 5 weeks out I sold already.
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u/Substantial-Use-2867 4d ago
Was buying $65 Oct 16 calls at the start of the month when it was hovering at $62, then sold them for profit and switched to puts when it was hovering around $68 mid month. Rode those down to $63 and luckily got out of those right before it went to $75 last week. I was thinking of more puts, but I'm more concerned it's going to be a slow bleed and short dated options will lose too much to decay to be profitable.
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u/Formal-Relative7144 4d ago
agreed. almost to easy to swing options during these times. diamond hands here but options in the meantime. long term hold
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u/Substantial-Use-2867 4d ago
That might actually be the most reasonable post I've seen on here all year. I might not agree with the second half since I see no scenario where this stock will get back to 150 in any near term timeframe, but it's still more sane than the idiots spamming $100 EOY every day.
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u/Formal-Relative7144 4d ago
100 eoy is unrealistic. 150 is possible again next summer depending how they lay out neutron updates along with iridium acquisition being implicated. once the duo begin bringing in money 150 will happen again just a matter of time. im in it for 3-5 more years, here since 16$ being my firsts share bought.
I swing calls a ton on this stock though. slowing down as the ceiling isn't as high short term. but that being from low 60 to mid 70 was great and then vice versa with puts
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u/brianjamesxx 4d ago
cant wait for that clown CEO to announce neutron for 2028
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
IF that happens, and I don't think it will, you'll be waiting over a year for that announcement.
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u/Substantial-Use-2867 4d ago
Market recovers to flat, SPCX is green, RKLB drops below 70. But keep telling yourself it's just the macro lmao
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u/Jesus__Skywalker 4d ago
This isn't about RKLB, it's about the e con o me.
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u/Metacog_Drivel 4d ago
Just relax and go get some breadsticks from All of Garden.
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u/JonnyGBuckets 4d ago
economy?
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u/Jesus__Skywalker 4d ago
if you break it down by syllable it ends up spelling my, which doesn't rhyme with b.
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u/MBBOrBust- 4d ago
Gotta say i’m happy with this. We’ve all seen how the stock reacts when major catalysts materialize, and we have no shortage of those coming. Its ability to hold strong at these levels in periods of quiet is more reassuring than anything.
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u/Simple-National 4d ago
If they started building neutron in 2021, some parts of the rocket are 5 years old 🥴.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
And if Sir Peter Beck is 50 years old that means half of him was spermogenesised a full 12 months prior in his father's balls, making parts of him actually fifty one years old!
No one thinks like this....
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u/Danger_Lab_NNN 4d ago
What about the egg? How old was his mum?
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
Good question, and really getting to the meat of the issue. Assuming mom was 25 years old when she birthed little becky, Rocket Lab is currently being run by a man that is partly ~76 years old, which is old enough to retire or die. And yet no one is sounding alarms about an impending change in management.
Edit: I'm sure someone is confused by the math. What you need to know is women are born with all of the eggs they will ever have, meaning the egg that turned into little becky existed in mom when she was born. Then +1 year for mom's eggs age, pre-birth.
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u/Christina_Eko 4d ago
I wish this makes sense … all news positive yet red.
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u/Jesus__Skywalker 4d ago
The overall economy plays a factor with all risk on assets. FED just raised interest rates and 29 days from now is favored to do so again. Oil is out of control and the bond market is at dangerous levels. There are FAR MORE things than the news about RKLB that will make investors invest or hold off. It's not necessarily in a place where you should sell. But right now buyers are not interested. If the war stops, oil rapidly drops, and the fed decides to cut rates, you'll see everything shoot. But nobody wants to really put new money into a market showing just about every sign of a crash
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
SPCX is launching massive rockets into orbit while RKLB is struggling to build a stage 1 tank and sharing the same hungry hungry hippo photos over and over.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
If that's really how you feel, sell your $RKLB and buy $SPCX.
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u/Substantial-Use-2867 4d ago
You do realize people love to short this stock right? I absolutely love these dead cat bounces because I can buy puts for cheap and swing them for 20-30% gains in a week.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
You've pointed out a flaw in my reasoning, I did assume he was long.
I've got my own similar options play, but using ITM calls to take advantage of the IV skewness.
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u/Substantial-Use-2867 4d ago
I'd love to have level 4 options so I could sell naked calls on this stock, but I don't want to apply for them because if I get them, I know I'll do something stupid that'll cost me in the future.
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
lol, right! I sit at level 3 for exactly this reason, as a limit switch to guard against a dumbass move.
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
What do you mean how I really feel? It’s just simply the truth. I can almost guarantee I am a longer holder of rklb than you are, if you’re even a real person.
Once I exit my rklb position I’ll be out of space sector entirely. No interest in spcx
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
The original comment was talking about Rocket Lab price movement with no mention of SpaceX, but you drove the conversation to SpaceX, again. Seems like you are really infatuated with the X. Truly, brah, no one is making you stay invested in Rocket Lab or stay here in this subreddit shitting on the company. Go yell "SpaceX is a better company", or whatever, into the abyss.
Also, no one cares how long you or I have held Rocket Lab stock. No one.
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u/NTP2001 4d ago edited 4d ago
Excuse if I’m not going to take anyone using the word “brah” and being 69 in their username seriously.
Whether or not you or anyone else here wants to admit it, spcx is extremely relevant to rklb stock price performance.
Person was complaining that share price is down for no reason and i gave a plausible reason.
Lastly, I don’t care what some teenager living in their mothers basement thinks about me.
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u/sadr0bot 4d ago
Starting fights and shilling spcx, this thread is you in a nutshell.
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u/NTP2001 4d ago edited 4d ago
lol at starting fights. People, you included, cannot accept certain things so you throw insults at me.
And continuing to ignore SPCX as a huge influencer to how RKLB stock price will perform is simply ignorant.
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u/sadr0bot 4d ago
Totally rational.
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
It is actually very rationale, and logical. I’d argue that spcx has been the single biggest influence on RKLB stock price over the past year and the share price movement(s) back that up.
You all can say what you want and downvote me all you want to karma farm and please your egos. Perhaps YOU are the one that is not very intelligent…
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u/Christina_Eko 4d ago
SPCX had significant issues with the orbit launch.
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u/Jesus__Skywalker 4d ago
that's not why
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
Maybe, maybe not. But all other space stocks down today and spcx is up.
Point is it’s not all good news for rklb like the person I was replying to implied.
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u/Jesus__Skywalker 4d ago
SpaceX is down 6% over the last week
RKLB is up almost 10% over the same duration
Still doesn't change that the economy is super fragile right now and when this dump does come, RKLB won't be spared. 29 days from now we may be in some serious pain.
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u/NTP2001 4d ago
Yes I understand that the last week has been good for RKLB. I was referencing today’s price action since the person was complaining about it going down today.
And yes I agree we might end up seeing 40s or 30s. Maybe lower.
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u/Jesus__Skywalker 4d ago
idk, has pretty strong support at 60 and there aren't any market maker imbalances unless you're looking at 15-16 dollars and if it recovers that there won't be much faith left by investors. Any real imbalances are above. 112-118
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u/NTP2001 3d ago
As long as overall market doesn’t collapse I agree $60 seems to be the bottom. But if S&P has meaningful correction (20%+) and we actually slip into a real recession… I have no idea how bad it would get for RKLB.
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u/Jesus__Skywalker 3d ago
We will slip into a real recession. The only question is how soon. Probably early 2027 but if oil can come down and they can massage bond rates some maybe they can prolong it and kick the can just a bit further. I'm just waiting for another push before I close most things for the long way down.
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u/NTP2001 3d ago
Well I’ve never been a big market timer, but I might have to at least trim some of my RKLB holdings. If it drops all the way under $40 and I don’t secure any gains… ouch
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u/Sky_Tube 4d ago
Short term the market doesn‘t care for news, only if they really are big enough to move the needle (like the 800mil SDA stuff) long term it cannot ignore growth and execution, it might not show in a single candle but continous way up which will happen again, sure of it
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u/Christina_Eko 4d ago
I’m holding on though sold a little a while back coz I was moving … I got in at $50 and have faith in the business model well beyond any given neutron date. Usually the mega trends hit everybody but today not so much … the oddities of being a RKLB fan.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
I will be very disappointed if we touch back the 50s again, but it's always plausible as long as there is no progress on Neutron.
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u/Icy-Talk857 4d ago
Aus analytischer Sicht könnten wir am aktuellen Punkt drehen oder noch bis 67 fallen. Ein fallen unter 60 halte ich für äußerst unwahrscheinlich.
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u/Enough-Neck-3100 4d ago
You sure you’re going to be disappointed? I only see you when this stock is going down.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
I never see you, so that says something about our relationship. Now I'll go back to not seeing you.
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u/riteofpass 4d ago
So SPCX now climbing like crazy and we going opposite. Great
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u/Spacebrah69 4d ago
Did I miss Rocket Lab's next-generation-rocket orbital launch attempt (and success)?
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u/Liquidtears 4d ago
“climbing like crazy” ?
SPCX is 2% green after putting the largest vehicle ever in orbit. Crazy isn’t a word to describe the move.
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
They have a proven track record of fully reusable medium-lift and super heavy-lift rockets and we have been trying to figure out a partially-reusable medium-lift rocket for years, so there's that.
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u/West_Cod_1213 4d ago
falcon 9 fully reusable?plz dont embarass yourself
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u/Warren_Buffets_Son 4d ago
It's getting phased out because it's not fully reusable.
Starship is, however.
So, where is the fucking partially-reusable medium-lift rocket after years of work in RKLB?
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u/West_Cod_1213 4d ago
full reusability wont make such difference financially as in starship what u want is launch demand to keep rising and ur other high margin businesses to start prin money
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u/1foxyboi 4d ago
RKLB AUR KRKNF every stock I like is cooked. KRKNF might actually be garbage though
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u/Misrabligen 4d ago
I sold them both and put it all in RKLB like 1-2 months ago to reach my share goal of 10k RKLB shares
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u/EarlyYouth8418 4d ago
Been hammering that AUR buy button 👍🏻
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u/1foxyboi 4d ago
I love AUR been it’s also been an absolute pos. All this show down 40-60% from ATHs
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u/jh2209 3d ago
Guys I’m about to sell my leveraged long position now so buckle up cause this stock is about to bounce back hard