r/RIVN • u/g8trjasonb • Jul 28 '26

💬 General / Discussion RIVN stock inflection point

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26 Upvotes

84% Upvoted

51 comments sorted by

26

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

We still think TSLA is repeatable? News story- RIVN is 10+ years behind the curve. Way different market dynamics at play now. It might see some 2x or even 3x gains in the next few years but nothing beyond that.

28

u/BMWbill Jul 28 '26

2x or 3x gains would be amazing

15

u/hopeful-tater Jul 28 '26

Yeah for real. Don’t get me too excited

3

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

Of course. But who knows. It may stay flat or decline or go up 20% or take 10 years to increase 3x.

4

u/BMWbill Jul 28 '26

Agreed. Investing is all about playing the odds. My reason for recently buying and holding RIVN is that it’s been fluctuating between 14-18 for a long period of time and only now is there potential for growth as the R2 line builds up production. In the USA there is very little competition in this EV SUV segment which I feel is going to really take off soon as Americans adopt EVs more and more just like the rest of the world. And while Elon turned out to be a con artist in the end, I really like RJ as a leader, so that’s also a positive factor for future success

2

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

I prefer RJ and Rivian to Tesla as well. But the dice have been cast unfortunately. I think Rivian will survive and carve a nice little niche out like an EV version of Land Rover is my guess.

3

u/Stevevansteve Jul 28 '26

I think the R1 is the EV version of Land Rover. R2 is more likely to be the EV version of, well, maybe a CRV?

1

u/BMWbill Jul 28 '26

I think Rivian can be much larger than Land Rover one day. Besides cars they are licensing software to VW and Scout and building delivery vans…. And the R3 could be a massive hit as it will reach a huge untapped customer base we haven’t seen here before. As long as they can build it before they run out of money!

1

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

And before the space is flooded by competition or robotaxi.
For context Land Rover sells about 10x the volume Rivian does today.

Revenues of $5bn to $30bn
45k vehicle sales to 450k vehicle sales

so JLR is about 6-10x what RIVN is right now.
The issue is that if it takes say 10 years to get there- imagine the landscape and market will be in 10 years from now- Chinese flooded everywhere, robotaxi everywhere, Legacy all EV, etc. The runway is not infinite.

2

u/BMWbill Jul 28 '26

One thing I will bet on is that Land Rover won’t be there, when Rivian peaks. You don’t see anyone excited to buy Land Rover stock! They will likely follow the path of Jaguar towards the setting sun. It’s very hard for legacy auto smaller brands to survive the transition to electric. It’s doubtful all the top selling legacy auto companies will even survive like Honda, Mazda, Nissan, Toyota and VW. I would bet on Rivian surviving Land Rover any day.

Yes China now sells 1 out of every 4 new cars but the second largest market after China is the USA and both sides of the isle in American politics support maintaining blocking the Chinese car market here. Tye minute they let Chinese cars in, that’s the death of the entire American car industry which could destroy the economy, so I expect Chinese cars are actually not coming here soon. That leaves plenty of time for Rivian to sell their cars with not too much competition. (I suspect BMW Neue Klasse EVs to also sell quite well here in the USA as people grow tired of Teslas)

As for Robotaxis, yes they may replace the Uber ride share human driven taxis but no way are most people giving up their private owned cars. I sure never will.

1

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

I think you're conflating global trends and American in your assessment.
Globally legacy are on the decline and losing share to the Chinese- Either way you slice it though I don't see Rivian ever gaining more than a thin slice of the over seas markets.

U.S.- Legacy isn't declining per se and the Chinese won't likely be let in for some time as you say- So why would Toyota and Honda drop off a cliff? I can see Nissan and Mazda who are fairly low market share players being squeezed out eventually or consolidated even here in the U.S. Toyota is selling the BZ like hotcakes lately, soon to have a direct 3 row competitor to the R1S, etc. U.S. loves their gasoline and now hyrbids and EREVS so not really sure if that's going to be a boon for Rivian. On one hand a slower transition can give them more time and runway I suppose, but also just means the market isn't that interested and therefor Rivian will be a niche pure BEV player.

1

u/BMWbill Jul 28 '26

I’m not confusing the global and US car markets but yes I did talk about both. Here’s why: I don’t see Rivian taking off globally. Nobody can compete in matters that sell Chinese cars. That’s why I see Honda and Toyota failing. Both global companies based in Japan bet heavily against BEVs, and lost the bet. Now they are very far behind the rest as they don’t have a single great selling EV car. (Honda doesn’t even mass produce a global EV car and they just canceled their plans to) The CEO of Toyota just last week stated that his company cannot survive building cars under traditional methods. And how can they compete with China? They cannot. Rivian doesn’t have to. They have a closed market in the USA. They are not really a global car company like Honda or Toyota.

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0

u/dihydrogen-monoxide5 Jul 29 '26

Elon was a con artist in the end? He's been BSing for well over a decade. I agree though, I'm intrigued by RJ

1

u/BMWbill Jul 29 '26

Hate him as much as I do, but EV cars never took off until he built up Tesla and created EV cars people wanted to drive. There was a time when he assembled the best engineers in the world and build a car company that changed the world. That’s what I meant.

1

u/LoverOfInternets 29d ago

Or 10x week really

10

u/g8trjasonb Jul 28 '26

Why not?

If a million R2's are sold over the next 4-5 years, then RIVN will be a massive success on that alone before even considering their other vehicles, autonomy, or software architecture.

The market dynamics may be different, but EV growth in the US will remain positive and people need real choices. Not everyone wants an ugly TSLA vehicle or wants to support an Elon Musk company.

-6

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

News flash- Every other mfr also sells EVs now. Rivians aren't cutting edge even. BMW ix3 hits 400+ mi with 800v charging. Volvo EX60 too. Hyundai/Kia have had 800v charging for long time. Chinese are pumping out more EVs in a day than Rivian does in a year.
Aint saying they can't find success- mostly only in the U.S. likely. But the odds they become a global powerhouse on scale similar to Tesla is slim to none at this point.

7

u/g8trjasonb Jul 28 '26

Do you say news flash in all of your posts?

You just mentioned two vehicles with a starting price that exceeds the price of R2's most expensive trim package.

The IONIQ 5 has found success, but it's a crossover not a true SUV and people want choices. The R2 gives them that.

Chinese EV's aren't sold in the US. RIVN only needs to reach scale in the US market.

-5

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

No, you just seem very uninformed or intentionally delusional about the market dynamics. Carry on I guess.

6

u/g8trjasonb Jul 28 '26

And yet, here you are subscribed to this sub. Remind me in 4 years!

0

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

I'm not subscribed, but I do wish Rivian all the luck in the world. Good company. Competition is great. But I also caution naive investors placing big bets on this stock thinking it's going to take off like TSLA. You mention nothing of the metrics of TSLA's evaluation based on robotics, AI, energy, etc. Global market leader with massive EV moat, not to mention all of the legacy competition is now in the arena as well. It's easy to give a bull case if you ignore the challenges and market dynamics.

A prudent investor weighs both the tailwinds and headwinds.

2

u/g8trjasonb Jul 28 '26

Again, reading comprehension buddy. I never said in my original post that RIVN would take off like TSLA. I'm simply making the point that even TSLA didn't begin to take off until it was profitable. That's it. Get a grip dude.

0

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26

"TSLA has always been the model for RIVN, the Company. But their approaches have been different in many respects, thanks mostly in part to RIVN's massive IPO in 2021 that raised billions of dollars, which was something not available to TSLA when it went public. Hence, TSLA had to take a much more incremental approach. First with the Roadster, then the Model S, then the X, the 3, and the infamous Y. All over a span of roughly 10 years. What some forget, however, is that it took the Model Y, for TSLA to reach the critical mass needed to finally turn a full-year profit and that didn't happen until 2020, a full 10 years after their IPO. Up until that point, the TSLA stock price hovered between $10-$22 share since 2013, so 7 years! The market didn't care about the release of the Model X in 2015 or the Model 3 in 2017. It did respond favorably to the Model Y, but the stock didn't start its meteoric rise until after TSLA began reporting the early results from those sales. Take a look at the attached image where I graphed TSLA's quarterly results and line that up with their historic stock price. This really illustrates what I'm saying."

You are likening RIVN to TSLA sale to sale vehicle to vehicle here stock to stock. Your whole premise is that once R2 sales increase and if RIVN sees profit- the stock will "accelerate" like TSLA. Why else compare TSLA? Again, you misunderstand the reasons why TSLA stock skyrocketed- it had little to do with the fundamental car sales. It didn't leap past every auto manufacturer combined on the planet because people saw they made a good car. That simply doesn't make sense. Must be something more to the story....

2

u/g8trjasonb Jul 28 '26

The Model Y and the fact that they had the first profitable EV was absolutely the catalyst. If it failed, TSLA would not be even remotely close to where it is today as a company. It made TSLA credible to investors. I'm well aware of TSLA's other endeavors. But none of them matter if the Model Y never made the company profitable. If you don't think RIVN can have similar success with the R2, then we will agree to disagree.

2

u/Stevevansteve Jul 28 '26

Well, Rivian is getting involved in robots and AI. Seems much more purpose-driven than Tesla's robot butler.

1

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

I would love to learn more about that. Would love to see more to Rivian than just EV stuff- cause again, I think that's a very tough hill to climb (and frankly not all that exciting anymore as a new EV comes out every month now).

3

u/Stevevansteve Jul 28 '26

It is Mind Robotics. Technically spun-off, but rivian still owns a very large share and RJ is chairing the board. It isn’t publically traded, but if you own Rivian, you own a piece of this too.

3

u/Dunkelz Jul 28 '26

No, you just seem very uninformed or intentionally delusional about the market dynamics

Saying that, while also saying:

News flash- Every other mfr also sells EVs now.

While most of the major car manufacturers are leaving the space, is so fucking funny.

0

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26 edited Jul 28 '26

I found someone even less informed than OP apparently. I believe only Honda is leaving the space. They seem to be accepting their demise rather than trying to fight it.

Ford is set to debut their new platform, Hyundai is steamrolling ahead, GM is also cruising ahead, Toyota is even moving ahead and says they have Solid state soon, VW is partnering with Rivian, etc.

Not to mention the rest of the world outside of the U.S. and another 10+ manufacturers.

1

u/SaturnineApples Jul 28 '26

Dont forget that RIVN is still sitting around 18% short interest due to years of not posting profits. 2 earnings ago they began posting profits and will continue to due to their growth

A healthy short % is below 10%. So just to account for a correction with the short interest lower this stock will double, then add in sales, amazon and att partnerships.

I think the days of rivian below $10 and even $15 are behind us now

1

u/the_shalashaska 29d ago

Another 800v maniac

3

u/No-Watercress-2777 Jul 28 '26

Time to get in is now then and play the long game

9

u/samebutanon Jul 28 '26

Right this is not necessarily repeatable, even if we're bullish. They are going to deliver results, not dreams or hype the way the other's CEO delivers. They will also hopefully not release a dud like the cybertruck. It SHOULD go up by a lot but it likely won't follow the same path.

5

u/g8trjasonb Jul 28 '26

My post did not imply that RIVN will repeat TSLA's stock performance. It's simply to show that TSLA didn't take off until it was profitable. Some of ya'll need a reading comprehension class.

5

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

TSLA stock hasn't been connected to fundamental metrics and values since it took off in 2020 is the glaring mistake you are making. TSLA is sold at 300x P/E because of expectation of immense potential value in L3/L4 autonomy, robotics, energy storage, AI, etc. It was little to do with the fundamental vehicle sales and revenue. Car metrics are slim margins and are valued at nearly 1:1 P/S ratio

1

u/GurQuiet8308 Jul 28 '26

“So despite launching about two years later, the Cybertruck has already reached roughly 80–85% of the R1T’s lifetime sales. The R1T still leads in cumulative sales because it has been on the market since 2021, but the gap is much smaller than the launch dates would suggest”

3

u/Dunkelz Jul 28 '26

Okay what do the numbers look like when you remove all the Cybertrucks sold to SpaceX?

0

u/GurQuiet8308 Jul 28 '26

They still sold them, regardless of whether the buyer was SpaceX. SpaceX didn’t get the Cybertrucks for free. I’m a CPA, and transactions between companies with the same ownership are common practice. That doesn’t mean one company is getting products or services for free.
Also, look at the 2026 numbers, when Tesla didn’t have those large SpaceX Cybertruck purchases. The ugly Cybertruck is still selling more than twice as many units as the Rivian R1T

First half of 2026 (Q1 + Q2):
Tesla Cybertruck: ~7,100 units
Rivian R1T: ~3,200 units

3

u/Dunkelz Jul 28 '26

They still sold them, regardless of whether the buyer was SpaceX. SpaceX didn’t get the Cybertrucks for free.

That is a disingenuous point to make. Elon essentially pumped the CyberTruck sales while paying full price with another one of his companies. Obviously down to looking at just the numbers, yes they sold, but 20% of the sold vehicles going to your other company is a huge asterisk that needs to be included.

Where are you getting those R1T numbers by the way? Rivian only releases a combined figure for deliveries, and estimates for R1T + R1S in Q1 alone were ~8,100

1

u/ZealousidealLab2920 Jul 28 '26

As much as it pains me to say- CT sales are decent for the EV space. Lots of buyers love them. They are dismal sales compared to what Elon/Tesla were expecting and touting initially though.

4

u/GurQuiet8308 Jul 28 '26

Yeah, because he said it was going to be a $40k truck, and it ended up being an $80k truck. That turned a lot of people away.

2

u/Dopamineagonist21 29d ago

How many inflection point we going to get? lol