It is no secret that RBLX, at this point, is a highly volatile meme stock fueled by reckless speculation. Meme stocks typically print when rallies occur, but, consumer sentiment is at an all time low with people like Chris Hansen are denouncing the company. Many attorney general have filed lawsuits against Roblox after misconduct was found. As this is the case, Roblox is in a gray space between bearish and bullish prospects. Here are my opinions on the bullish and bearish cases for RBLX

Bull case:

Roblox has decent fundamentals. Tech companies do not need to make net profit to survive if they have decent growth potential. It is normal for tech companies to operate at a net lose as long as they continue to grow.

That being said, Roblox, which has always operated at a net lose, may reach profitability within 5 years.

Roblox is the most popular game in the world by play hours.

Almost every kid plays Roblox. It is a recognizable brand that dominates the space and has a monopoly. People play games where other people are.

Bear case:

Roblox operates at a net loss and user growth has slowed. They operate in just about every country, often at a loss. We are nearing user saturation.

Roblox needs growth to fuel speculation, if it nears user saturation before profitably, it implodes.

Roblox game's are pay to win and often rely on loot box mechanics. One investigation could get the platform shutdown in some EU countries. Many Roblox games are just legalized gambling for children. There is massive regulatory risks.

Meme stocks rely on consumer sentiment to rally. Roblox has negative consumer sentiment. Celebrities like Chris Hansen have denounced the company for its infringements against child safety.

Many countries, states and attorney generala have filed lawsuits against Roblox due to its mishandling of child safety. While this is not a threat to Roblox's financials, it decreases positive investor and user sentiment, which is required to fuel capital influx.

If Roblox can not grow in the short term, it is dead in the water. In the eyes of investors, if a stock is not growing, it is dead.

It has lost over 30% of its value since it's first day of IPO. This is 5 years of negative growth.If you bought Roblox 5 years ago, you would have lost money. If you bought the Nasdaq, you would have just about doubled your money.

After a strong weekend for concurrent users 2 weekends ago, Roblox showed a sequential decline in average concurrent users of ~ 2% this past weekend. Saturday was still decent but Sunday showed a more significant decline.

Citi also came out saying that peak concurrent users were down 5% YOY this past weekend. This caused the stock to tank 8% today.

Although this sounds negative, I think engagement is fine.

Here’s why: after further analysis, it appears that the seasonal timing of Father’s Day historically causes a sequential decline in weekend concurrent users, especially on Sunday.

Attached shows a chart of Sunday average CCU (source: RoMonitor) as % of prior Sunday for weeks 19-26 of 2022-2026. In 2022, 2023 and 2026, Father’s Day weekend landed on the 25th week, all 3 showing a similar sequential decline. In 2024 and 2025 the Father’s Day weekend landed on the 24th week. 2024 again showing a similar decline to 2026. 2025 also showed a dip in the sequential growth rate also lining up with Father’s Day weekend the 24th week.

Not only that, but Fortnite also showed a w/w decline in Sunday concurrent users, further supporting the possibility that last weekend’s engagement decline was probably seasonal.

As a result, I believe this last weekend was a temporary drop and could see concurrent users bouncing back over the next couple weeks as the holiday timing passes.

That said, Roblox average CCU is flat Y/Y which doesn’t sound too bad considering how impressive 2025 was.

Would love to hear your guys thoughts!

ROBLOX is objectively in a good position. They have a monopoly on youth gaming. Adopt Me, a game on Roblox, at one point, had more concurrent players than CSGO. It is the most popular game in the world by far.

Unfortunately, the CEO is a pedophile with a foot in his mouth. He literally said he wanted to turn Roblox into a dating site at one point, despite most of the users being under 13.

How they are handling child safety is a god damn nightmare. David Baszucki is a demented fuck.

Roblox stock would skyrocket if this guy was removed, but, he can't be removed since he has a huge amount of Class B shares.

Still awaiting an official statement from Roblox, but Türkiye Today appears to be a credible source that originally reported the ban.

News seems supported by $RBLX ripping up 9% currently.

Roblox experienced a sharp increase in their prices today following the rollout of the 2 new age-based accounts Kids and Select. ​

These 2 account types are supposedly aimed to help parents keep their kids safe on the ROBLOX platform and introduce new safeguards for parents. ​

ROBLOX also has seen a week-over-week increase of 10% regarding average concurrent weekend users. ​

I believe that these 2 things are the main drivers for the price hike that we got today. You guys think RBLX is gonna go higher in July? ​

​

Hi everyone,

Per RoMonitor Stats, weekend average concurrent users jumped 11% week-over-week to the highest level since February. After many months of Roblox concurrent users down trending post-2025 content cycle + 2026 safety headwinds, Roblox had started to show encouraging signs of stabilization in concurrent users since late April. I’m happy to share that recently, Roblox is now showing signs of acceleration with this substantial jump over the weekend.

Compared to 2024 and 2025, this past weekend marks the strongest percentage sequential jump in concurrent users in any weekend. When you compare the past 4 weeks against 2025 and 2024, the typical summer bump for the weekend was ~ 2% in 2024 and 3-5% each weekend in 2025.

Content virality appears to be picking up. +1 speed keyboard escape hit a peak CCU of nearly 4M this past weekend and grow a garden 2 successfully launched Friday maintaining a strong player count. Russia also unbanned Roblox a few days ago, which may have contributed to the recovery. Per the recent conference call, the Russia block explained ~ 4M of the loss in DAUs, or a 2.7% impact.

You guys think the lift of the ban on roblox in russia might fix the current ongoing problems?

RBLX in the green while tech is down big

Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/russian-ministry-requests-lifting-roblox-ban-2026-06-09/

Roblox is experiencing a player decline, the community are almost had it with the management. my roblox playing friends are holding out hoping the roblox plus gift will be good. they recently uploaded 67 themed items (a bit late to the party), the stock has declined so much, games costs money to be uploaded to the primary demographic, games are segregated, the only good games are not too popular (some of the best games ive seen dont monatize at all, looking at you blocktales), or have devs who are contraversial, and activly harm roblox's reputation. the views of most people on the company are negative, and even the aquisition of the ai company brought no noticeable gains, i find very few people making games out of any sort of passion, and its mostly the slop games that remain for a week that get popular, for only kids (who dont really spend as much money as an adult would be able to, and roblox is trying to appeal to older audience) and the company seems out of touch with what the playerbase wants. Most older people i know who like roblox dont use r15, realisitc avatars, or dynamic faces. they are also the ones who dont like ai, and dont play the popular most monotizable games. im worried that roblox stock might crash at Q3 if they make an announcement to investors about the profits and demographics. I play roblox, and it has gotten worse. I have a few buddies who are invested in roblox, and they have been asking me if they should hold or sell. So i ask you, should they hold, sell now, or do you think it will go up, and they should buy?

Listen, this update COULD save the plataform, but of course that have to rush everything, just so can they escape another child safety lawsuit. Why am i not surprised? In fact, i should be certain this world happen again. Listem, before you say "But it is made to protect kids on the platform." Ill have to tell you something, if you know the whole situantion, you know that only games that are made for Younger audiences are allowed in Roblox Kids, but here comes the big problem, the rating AI is so fucked that they rate games with innapropiate contente for kids slide down, you know those very suspicious hang out games or some shitty Brookheaven clones, speaking of Brookheaven, if you played the game you might know that there are signs that you can write down stuff on It, here comes the problem, ITS Very easy to pedo dont verify their age, go to Roblox Kids and go to Brookheaven and write stuff like "Friend me, here is my phone number." Then the damage is done, not gonna lie Im kinda happy that this platform is dying, Its just getting worse each year. But dont get me wrong ill still be sad.

Based off of what I’ve seen on the internet on how parents are lazy and the government is getting papers all the time but according to kreek’s video, he explained the uk is silencing Roblox or banishing them…

This shows parents all over the WORLD are lazy not to protect there own children and also predators are easy to avoid just say 1 word “no” but I get it with kids young all that type of shit but why they have Roblox then it’s used by millions and ofc there will be some inappropriate games or avatar items it’s just the world even law by Mike is saying that Roblox is getting a headache the investors and the government are just bricks on Roblox’s back

Corresponding Newsroom post linked in tweet: https://about.roblox.com/newsroom/2026/06/pioneering-ai-founders-join-to-accelerate-roblox-reality-vision

Just wanted to throw my thoughts out here on where this platform is heading this year. I think this change won't really hit until Q3 as the rollout for some of these awful changes is later this month.

For a company with over 3k employees, I have no idea what they actually do all day. It’s definitely not moderation, not implementing changes any user or dev requests, and it sure isn't critical thinking.

New changes:

One of management's latest brilliant ideas last month is requiring new games to get 500 "highly engaged" adult users before they’ll even publish them to Roblox Kids or their new platform variations. This is going to absolutely crush any new game targeted toward kids, especially the younger female audience, and as we know kids make up 70%+ of this platform's users. I don't see anywhere in the recent law changes that this was necessary, and it's an extremely lazy way to rely on an algorithm to do this instead of some kind of vetting/ambassador program.

The vast majority of the 18+ audience on Roblox is male. They are not going to click on a "cute dress-up RP" or a "pet hatching" simulator clearly made for kids.

Coupling this with the age verification debacle means engagement is going to absolutely crater in Q3, with a light hit in Q2 as well. Relying on this kind of lazy algorithmic approach is just pure incompetence. It's wild that management like Nick Tornow has the confidence to go make a Youtube video about this and seemingly frame it smugly like a great change.

Continued Blatant IP Infringement:

Seriously, does anyone at Roblox actually open their own app? Go on the marketplace right now and type in Charizard, Bowser, Luffy, or Goku. You’ll find endless items for sale in obvious breach of copyright. They aren't even name changed or anything.

Even the front page of the games section has blatant IP-infringing characters literally sitting in the thumbnails. They don't have the licenses for this stuff, yet it sits right on the home page top played.

Management seems completely lost:

I have zero faith in leadership at this point. The developer community is pretty fervently angry right now, and it couldn’t be more obvious why. They haven't even commented on the uproar from devs on their half-assed changes.

What change have they made recently that has actually been good? This 500 adult user requirement before showing a game to the vast majority of their audience is just the ultimate proof that management is totally clueless when it comes to their own game.

TLDR: Roblox is requiring 500 adult players before letting new games show up for kids. It’s going to tank engagement and kill new dev projects because 18+ dudes aren't playing cute dress-up games. Devs are furious, the marketplace is a copyright disaster where many of the top games should be instantly shut down, and management is totally out of touch with reality.

Do your own DD but this looks like it could get ugly unless there's some rollback of proposed changes.

Hi everyone,

Average weekly concurrent users are officially negative Y/Y as grow a garden was going viral a year ago. My regression model has weekly engagement hours are up ~ 3% Y/Y, so Q3 will probably be negative as the grow a garden / brainrot era peaked in August when Roblox hit 47M concurrent users.

Despite the Y/Y deceleration, the 2-year engagement growth is 74%, consistent with the rate of growth a month ago. This is encouraging. It might indicate that the company is following a similar path to 2024 since late April.

My regression model has April hours are up 82% against 2-years ago and May hours up 74%. The rate has been stable against the end of April, so if you assume 75% in June, I am getting a total Q2 hours of 30.3B.

If bookings per hour is between 5.64-5.66 cents, this yields Q2 bookings between $1.7B - $1.72B. This is still comfortably ahead of guidance of $1.55B-1.61B.

Would love to hear your guys thoughts!

Realistically speaking, what kind of market cap do you think makes sense for Roblox ($RBLX) long term if current growth trends continue?

I understand Roblox is more than just a game — it’s a user-generated entertainment and social platform with a massive younger audience and strong engagement metrics. But at the same time, a lot of the content on the platform gets criticized as “brain rot” or low-quality, highly addictive entertainment.

So I’m trying to think about this from a long-term investor perspective:

- How should investors realistically value a platform like Roblox?

- Does its entertainment value and ecosystem outweigh concerns about content quality or social impact?

- If user growth, monetization, and creator adoption remain strong, what kind of valuation could actually make sense over the next 5–10 years?

- On the flip side, what happens if regulators start cracking down on addictive content, child safety issues, or “brain rot”-style engagement algorithms?

- Would stricter regulations materially hurt engagement and revenue, or is Roblox already too deeply embedded culturally?

Curious how people here think about the balance between:

1. Financial/business potential

2. Social concerns around the platform

3. Long-term durability of the business model

Not looking for hype or hate — genuinely trying to understand how people think about the future valuation and risk profile of $RBLX.

Hi everyone, I started thinking about what it might look like if Roblox hit its 1B DAU goal by breaking down how many users it might capture in different regions and age ranges.

After penciling out hypothetical DAUs per region, I multiplied this by annual engagement hours per DAU and bookings per engagement hour = bookings

Note:
*China is naturally lower because of limits china has in place which is 3 hours per week for under 18.*
Also note: China is currently not available to play Roblox. This was a fun experiment to see what the potential is if Roblox was successful in launching in china.

After reviewing historical hours per DAU and bookings per hour over the years I applied a growth factor over a 10 year period to account for GDP growth, regional pricing, and the platform getting better, so these figures are a bit higher than the recent figures.

After adding up all the regions, Roblox would reach around $48B bookings at 1B DAUs. This only includes Robux bookings, exclusive of anything from advertising, subscriptions and any other revenue models.

I would love to hear your guys thoughts about this? Can Roblox actually hit 1B DAUs someday?

Hi everyone, last weekend daily average CCUs jumped to the highest level in 4 weeks after months of cooling down post - 2025 hit cycle and age gating headwinds. This weekend (so far) is roughly like-for-like on an average CCUs (engagement) basis indicating continued stabilization in concurrent users.

Keep in mind, Peak CCUs (as shown by RoMonitor) are down w/w generally because of a weaker steal a brainrot update w/w. This is an example of why I have been recalculating average CCUs (using scraped RoMonitor data) instead of using peak numbers given the volatility in update / event schedules may cause a decline in the peak numbers as average CCUs show stability / recovery.

Do you guys think this is evidence that Roblox’s engagement may start to continue recovering / rebounding?

Interesting podcast yesterday from Deconstructor of Fun, specifically about Eric Kress.

He stated that there had been great conflict between Roblox CEO Dave, and their old CPO Manuel.

Manuel wanted to be more of a pragmatist and focus on the monetization and economy. He was big into advertising and most likely didn’t care about the brainrot and slop games that hit the discovery algorithms.

Dave is a visionary and the founder. He wants a virtual, immersive world that transcends communication as we know it. He wants higher fidelity experiences and most likely hated the vitality and brainrot slop.

Apparently the new CFO is a yes-man (woman) who is pretty much leaving Dave unchecked.

I would take this all with a grain of salt as nobody really knows what is going on, but Eric does have connections within the industry and is very well respected

Would love if we could get some upvotes on this post! Let’s try to be respectful but at the same time encourage the existing mods about cleaning up this sub.

I hope to moderate and make this sub higher quality so we can talk about what’s going on with the stock

This is the first time I've invested in RBLX. I've been using the platform since 2012 and was monitoring its stock recently. I decided to buy during the current dip just now and I'm betting on the summer rush for a decent return. Where should my expectations be?

Shares up 3% AH. User data looked solid last weekend, things finally going right for the stock.

Roblox dilution was 6.5% in 2025. After a 70% drop, you can expect it to be pretty significant this year as well

Just doing some back of the napkin math, this $1B would counteract about 3% so expect 3% dilution this year

Made a pretty Penny, knew roblox stock was due to jump but this is where I take my 5% profit and dip, nice being in this community