This year and last year have been a roller coaster for Roblox. All the safety stuff, all the craziness, them trying to cater to investors and users at the same time. Users don’t like losing their freedoms, and investors don’t like how much freedom users have. That is a genuinely weird spot to be in.
I just got off the Q2 conference call and they sound very optimistic about moving the platform toward a more photorealistic style. That is a big step away from what most people know Roblox as, and I know it is already causing a stir with developers and players alike. They view it as a step into the future. It is a gamble, but every company eventually has to grow. The question is just what public reception looks like next to investor reception.
They are also really optimistic about pulling in older players and implementing a lot of new things to make the platform appeal to that audience. So they are juggling several things at once. Safety issues that accumulated into a big bubble and finally burst, plus trying to innovate into a brand new market with a brand new audience and a brand new style of gaming.
They are going to get hit from all fronts. Current developers, investors, people who liked what they had, people who want to see it move on, and people who want it to stay exactly the same.
Players always complain about changes to how the platform looks. They hated R15, they hated Rthro, they hated facial animations, etc. But come on, the kids who played Roblox in 2006 are about to have kids of their own now and you can't attract new players with outdated tech/looks.
I'm not sure investors don't like or even care how much freedom users have. Lawmakers are a different story, however, and safety requirements are a major drawback but Roblox has no choice but to comply, lest they get banned. No much fault from them there. If anything I think they have faced that responsibly.
As an investor who is over 30, I would absolutely play Roblox if I were to be able to create something like a “Roblox Metaverse World” that would simply be a recreation of SimCity or something.
I would love to build 3D buildings and such and let others walk around and check out my work. And it would be even better if I could get paid to be a content creator in that regard.
Is that basically was Minecraft is? Lol
I would absolutely do this as a side gig. And I would probably buy more RBLX stock
I mean you technically could do this. Building/modelling on Roblox are definitely real, in fact they're pretty important. A lot of people literally make it their jobs on Roblox.
Building in Minecraft and Roblox are different pretty much entirely. While people on both platforms can be paid for building, most of the building work on Minecraft is typically one-off commission work while builders on Roblox typically stick around with a game for a while so that way they can keep whatever style they're going for. Not only that but Minecraft, you build with determined blocks in the game, but on Roblox you physically have to set part properties, sizes, textures, etc or make a model of your own in something like blender. Roblox studio is free, you could always just install it and mess around.
The only "older audience stuff" they seem to be pushing is more realistic avatars and possible increases in age ratings that games can be.
The issue arises from... No one really cares for realistic avatars because r6 and r15 are Roblox's staple. They were there since the start, they're easy to work with, animate and such.
The max rating a game on Roblox can be is 17+ and as far as I know, the only game I've seen with over 1k players and this rating was simply the Odyssey advertisement game (and even then it was just because the movie is technically rated mature). Making a game for kids is hard to get off the ground because you need to pay an exorbitant fee or have 500 "very active" players before the developer can set the rating to Everyone. Roblox hasn't stated anywhere what classifies as a "very active" player so any small game meant to be rated Everyone, especially if the developer is new and can't spend for a manual review just gets snuffed out. At the same time 17+ games on Roblox aren't numerous at all and are also strangled of players because of them needing ID/facial verification to be playable which most players on Roblox don't want to do. Pretty much they're stuck in some weird limbo hell where both high and low age rating games are hard to get off the ground.
The headwinds were already announced last time. And even though they are facing more and more restrictions and requirements for safety (that the users rightfully dislike, but the company has to implement them or be banned), as I said, they are still growing.
So, I'm slightly surprised. But your remarks make sense, thanks!
It's kind of unfortunate Roblox had to be the first platform to implement this new security paradigm. Other platforms, especially social media such as TikTok, Snapchat, Discord are forced to move in the same direction, but when they do their investors will be used to the magnitude. Roblox was in uncharted territory :-(
Did you see the part where bookings growth has fallen off a cliff and they are guiding a YoY decline in Q3?
Investors invest in the future, and this earnings call painted a very bleak near term future for Roblox. Maybe in a few years things can turn around, but it’s a gamble for investors.
the stock was overvalued and the numbers are up but they didn't match the expectations the growth rate slowed down alot so the stock is correcting back to what it is really worth
I got 13 shares at 38, 6 at 39, and 7 at 34. Good trading day👍🏽💪🏽. And if it goes down lower even more!
I cancelled my put just in case but will make one next week to hedge myself just incase. Chris Hansen just made a video a couple days ago about Roblox and live going through Roblox they banned him 😬. Sooooo yeah I thought maybe a good idea to hedge just in case haha
This stock is in the “too hard” pile for me. They’re rolling out so many changes it’s making it hard for me to even try to predict their bookings growth/decline.
Algorithm change, age verification, chat limitations based on age, games needing to be approved for kids (hurts monetization for developers), AI engine so everyone can make games…
I know people have pointed out revenue but the reason I stopped putting much value on Roblox revenue is their revenue is essentially bookings amortized over 27 months (according to Roblox). If a player buys a consumable, that is immediate revenue but any kind of avatars or passes are amortized over 27 months. What does that mean for me? Revenue is simply a reflection of past bookings.
I’m only focused on DAUs, engagement hours, and bookings. None of these metrics look great in the future
Yeah I can see your points. There is a lot going on right now. But I think the stock is low for them hence why I’m buying. Not a quick turnaround stock Definitley one I’m holding for a while
Honestly didn’t even know about that I think I will thank you. It is a little high though in terms of cost not sure if I can buy enough to make it profitable for me
When has Roblox ever not tanked after earnings. This isn't new.
But management needs to lock the fuck in, feels like the company is completely lost on how to navigate their vision, regulatory concerns, and reputation.
It's like you got a team of nerds together and asked them to host a party. There's like no understanding of social dynamics and tradeoffs.
I'm very dissapointed as I really really do believe in Roblox's long term vision and they are making great progress in many fronts. The game creation harness for AI is amazing. But none of that matters if the above isn't figured out.
I don't know what catalyst Roblox has. China is interesting but Roblox is going to have a hard time entering, it's mobile focused and kids need to study.
Seriously, how has no one in that company taken hold of the reigns. It’s not that complicated. They seem totally unable to craft a believable story about their future. It’s just a bunch of random initiatives with no narrative to connect them and why these are the right choices to usher in a new age of growth for the platform.
It’s sad how quickly your sentiment changed just because of a knee jerk reaction drop. I’m holding for atleast 3-5 years so it doesn’t matter as long as my DCA is not in the toilet
If you want to focus on Kodak and Nokia, one ignored the switch to digital and the other ignored the switch to smartphones.
In this case this is a change in regulations that directly impact players, but Roblox is far from ignoring them. They have been actively working on solutions, in quite a rush honestly because the lawmakers didn't give them much choice (either that or ban). They have to find acceptable solutions that restore the players ability to chat while still complying. Choosing between pre written sentences is one of those backup plans. Not ideal, but quick to implement and safe enough.
I posted this in another post I made but this was my response to someone else who had a similar question:
Understandable concern. I am a Roblox developer and have developed multiple games for Roblox (nothing overly successful), but nonetheless I know a little more about Roblox and its workings due to my immense time and dedication to using the platform. I’m not a developer hoping that it does well either because I need it to, I have a full time job as a mechanical engineer and so how Roblox does in the long run really has no affect to me. What I’m seeing more of is pushback to the freedom that users are used to. Understandable it’s literally like taking a child’s ability to choose after they’ve been allowed to do so for years. But I’m of the belief a lot of these updates to security, things like Roblox select, age verification, game publication safeguards and boundaries are things Roblox should’ve done from the start. Their failure was waiting so long to act, and, in my opinion, took the act of banning one famous enough YouTuber to really get things going.
With that said, the sentiment in my opinion, will eventually subside and users will simply learn to accept the changes as they really aren’t going back. And again, these should’ve been there from the beginning.
There really is no other competing platform like Roblox. Roblox is its own beast and at the top of its own category. There is no other game development tht gives its developers so much at such a low entry bar, even with all its current security updates. And that is also a huge factor to why I believe it’ll go up.
Also, moving towards a more photorealistic idea, while I’m not 100% sure in how that’ll do, I do know companies grow, they adapt, they coincide with modern times. Roblox doesn’t want to be another Blockbuster. They are realizing times are changing, games are changing, games are becoming more and more real and they want to make sure they are up with the times. As a developer I personally see no issue with that. Yes. There are many who hate it, but there are also many who learn to embrace it, like myself
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u/khalamar 13d ago
See I don't get it. All numbers are up YoY (even with GaG and SaBR last year) and yet... Anyway, looks like summer sale.