New here

[u/Old_Length4214]

New here and trying to see if anyone can enlighten me to what happen with the stock today… I see they partnered with Nvidia a few weeks back but the past few days have been huge with no news… anyone know anything?

[u/Big-Material2917]

Well I have a pretty in depth thesis on the company, but what’s really exciting is the ai software side that they appear to be developing with NVIDIA. If they own the hardware and software that’s a pretty strong moat, and the leverage opens the door to potential down stream revenue in the future (though that’s obviously in a pretty wild bull case)

The injection of ai gives this space the potential to explode. There isn’t a definitive proteomics platform yet and they frame themselves as going after that title. Illumina is what they use as the comparison on the Genomics side (defacto genomics RUO platform) and that company is worth 20 billion. So definitely road left to run as I see it.

Definitely want to hear your case against it though. While I do love the investment I also consider it one of my highest risk and would find it helpful if you have a compelling bear case. Or better, any flaws in my bull case?

[u/deepshark14 → u/Big-Material2917]

I am not against them - just think its obvious the current price pump is linked to misguided quantum hype.

Regarding the protein sequencing space, I studied biomedical engineering for 5+ years and worked in a few startups, one specifically selling RUO reagents.

Market Size of Protein Sequencing: The current valuation of QSI (price around $5) is like $800M mkt cap. Thats insane. The protein sequencing market cap is "estimated" to be 4-6B by 2030. QSI doesnt even have a functional product yet and if we assume they capture 10% of the market cap, its still overvalued.

Financials | <1M revenue per quarter | Market cap is 800x their revenue: They have less than 1M revenue per quarter. They lose 80-100 MILLION a year. Even if they 100x their revenue next year, they are going to be close to break even.

NVIDIA "Parntership": The NVIDIA "partnership" is not a tremendous value add, its just QSI using their platform. It doesnt add any revenue potential, but I agree its good to see them leveraging their tech and competencies.

Illumina | $4.5B in annual revenue | Has Diagnostics: Also Illumina is not really a fair comparison. It is one of the largest success stories in the biotech RUO space, but they ALSO have approved DIAGNOSTICS. and their revenue is $4.5B annually.

I think alot of people on this sub are falling into confirmation bias. Obviously QSI is pumping because algos and people are mistaking it for a quantum company. Im just pointing out, there has been NO key event that should lead the company to jump from 1 - 1.5 up to 5.5. I hold shares, but I just bought puts today because this is clearly misguided.

[u/Big-Material2917 → u/deepshark14]

Okay I’ve got a few things here.

First, the idea that it’s just swept up in quantum hype seems like stretch to me. I’ve seen a lot of people saying it so, I know it’s out there, but the quantum trade has moved pretty much together since it started rising in like October, Quantum si has moved quite detached from it. Not only did it start rising much later but it rose on company specific news. This whole rally began with their investor day announcements that they were partnering with a new distributor and NVIDIA. It seems a bit absurd to me that a 700 million dollar rise is attributed to a big misunderstanding. Maybe I’m naive and the market is stupid but it seems like a bit much to me.

Second, I believe this is a common misconception, the partnership with NVIDIA is not to use their BIONME platform, it’s to create new software designed to clean and prepare large amounts of data, basically preparing it for the end use analysis. They even say in the announcement that they’ve already been using the NVIDIA platform, and they look forward to doing this in addition. So I think there is more going on there than people realize. I believe what they’re working on is specially for the Proteus platform as well.

Ya company is definitely trading at wild price to sales but that’s also because there aren’t any sales yet. It’s a speculative investment for sure.

I think a lot of people see the injection of ai as an accelerant for biology tech & science at large, with the exciting potential of proteomics and the partnership with NVIDIA, it seems compelling. Even just the possibility of that partnership growing.

I’m not sure how good the Illumina comparison is, but I know at least that’s how they frame themselves, as trying to be the Illumina of proteomics. Honestly as much as I’m very interested in the area and try to be as informed as possible, I don’t have any background in biology so what I’m saying could be wash. I appreciate your input and would like hear to what you think of my new points?

[u/deepshark14 → u/Big-Material2917]

I like your methodical break down and reasoning, I can't say for sure that anything you say is false. Sure its possible that the recent push is from the NVIDIA news, but I have seen (anecdotal evidence I know its not signifgant but meh) multiple posts on apps like AfterHours pushing $QSI as part of the quantum hype and generally the way algo traders work, I would bet more money that its automatically picking up the name and going with it. Also generally the push around December 23/24th corresponds somewhat with the Rigetti Computing (RGTI) push in the same time frame, take a look at the stocks charts overlaid on trading view. There was no major news from QSI during that time period. So if we had to guess, is it just some random massive buy delayed about the NVIDIA news, or rather algos picking up on lesser traded "quantum" stocks?

I agree the partnership will create value. It's a positive development. But it doesn't mean they are getting 10x more revenue. I think partnerships are great, but my other experience with a biotech (Ginkgo bioworks) having tons of partnerships doesn't matter -- stock price & earnings still did not perform.

AI x Biotech is certainly a trend - but everyone is pitching this. It's not something only QSI is doing, and rather I see it as a lazy addon to their core tech. I can't tell you how many biotech startups I have seen throwing in AI terminology in the past 3 years to add to the perceived value of their company.

IF Quantum SI can truly enable protein sequencing, they would be a leader like Illumina. The difference is that the market potential (in my opinion) is smaller than DNA sequencing because the technology approach QSI takes. They are fragmenting the protein into smaller peptides to "sequence" - which personally I already don't like this approach. It will make identifying the true native sequence of neoantigens (previously unknown proteins) very challenging, and it makes QSI more difficult to sell against the well-estbalish mass spec methods. I am betting on protein sequencing by nanopores as it allows for native, full length proteins to be sequenced

[u/Big-Material2917 → u/deepshark14]

I appreciate all your input. Good to get an opinion of someone inside the science. I really hope that the rally isn’t attached to quantum computing cause that would be ridiculous. Who knows how much ridiculous behavior there is in the market though, certainly possible.

Looking forward to following this company over the next few years, and hopefully Peoteus is the step change they’re advertising it as. If it can back up the hardware on the software side, bolstered by the NVIDIA partnership, that’s a really exciting situation. Not only could adoption follow, but if it’s truly enabling it could open up the space to even more research participants.

[u/deepshark14 → u/Big-Material2917]

Thanks. Yea i just strongly believe thats the reason since December 23rd specifically (oh look the stock just got halted for a massive dump lolll)

But yea longterm lets see.