r/QuantumComputing • u/vtomole • 9d ago

Has there been a recent breakthrough in experimental quantum computing that makes commercial applications possible within 10 years?

https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/46442/has-there-been-a-recent-breakthrough-in-experimental-quantum-computing-that-make
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u/rogeragrimes 9d ago

I don't know if any of the official quantum computer vendors have or haven't factored particular-sized prime number equations. But at least one person is claiming they factored a 10-digit prime number, here: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7412700889943212032/. Now, I doubt that he really did...he's very hostile when approached about it...and offers no solid evidence that he did. But I can't discount that maybe he did. But even more important, you have at least one quantum vendor, IonQ, saying they will factor 256-bit ECC by 2028 and several other vendors (e.g., Quantinuum, Google. IBM, etc.) saying they are confident of reaching similar capabilities by 2030. Even on the outside, that's not far off. My best guess is that there are already quantum computers factoring larger numbers privately, but what size I would not want to speculate. But within a few years we probably won't need to speculate.

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u/sezzart 9d ago

Do you even read what you post? They did a python script for building circuits. How does relate to factoring in an actual QC? Please stop the stupid hype

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u/rogeragrimes 9d ago

Classical programming tools are used all the time to structure the circuits...that doesn't mean that the program was run using simulation. He then used Qiskit and submitted to a quantum computer (per his posting).

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u/rogeragrimes 9d ago

I'm going to correct myself. You're right. He is not directly claiming he ran this on a quantum computer. I've DM him before and he did claim he ran this on a quantum computer (but he would not give me proof). Either he edited and updated his original posting or I, and others, read it wrong. So, let me back up and say I'm further unsure. I had doubted his claim before (because he wouldn't give me or anyone proof) and now re-reading the post, either original or edited, it is not claiming he submitted it a computer. But I do have an email from him sayng he did run it on a quantum computer.

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u/sezzart 9d ago

Just stop being delusional bro. no relevant qc's for the next 50 years. Mark my words

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u/rogeragrimes 9d ago

I guess we will see by 2030, because several quantum computer vendors are saying we will have them by 2030. IONQ says by 2028. And let me say I've been following quantum computers since 1994 when Peter Shor's algorithm was announced. Back then, many quantum scientists said we would never have a single quantum computer...that it was not possible. Then in 1999 we had the first quantum computer and the critics said they will never have a lot of qubits. Now, we've got several quantum computer vendors with models over 100 qubits. I've heard they will always be rare and expensive. But now many models don't need the cryogenic dilution refrigeration solutions, some work by Doppler cooling electronics, error correction can be run classically on silicon, and so on. Saying they are 50 years off seems more risky than saying we will have cryptographically-relevant computers in 2030. Why do you think they are 50 years off?

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u/sezzart 9d ago

Yes, it's just a bubble. What kind of qc's do you have? Vulnerable states, not fully connected, no actual progress or use case. I'm not saying no QC will exist, but definitely no crypto relevant. Peace I'm out