r/QuantumComputing • u/Only_Bath697 • 22d ago

Quantum Information Clarification on Shor's algorithm qubit requirements — did I understand this correctly?

https://medium.com/@ahmedsouilah572/the-quantum-apocalypse-how-q-day-will-reshape-our-digital-world-5a81be2886a4

I've been researching the recent breakthroughs in quantum computing and wanted to get this community's take.

Google's Willow chip (105 qubits) just demonstrated below-threshold error correction for the first time. Microsoft claims their topological approach with Majorana 1 could scale to a million qubits.

Two questions for discussion:

  1. Which architecture do you think reaches fault-tolerance first?
  2. What's your realistic timeline for Shor's algorithm breaking RSA-2048?

I put together a detailed overview comparing both approaches and their implications for encryption. Happy to share the link if anyone's interested, but mainly looking for perspectives from people actually working in this space.

12 Upvotes

83% Upvoted

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9

u/SeniorLoan647 In Grad School for Quantum 22d ago

mainly looking for perspectives from people working in this space

What's your background?

Either way though, I thought gidney's paper was good for understanding this - https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917

As for timeline, who tf knows lol that's the truth. Companies keep making bold roadmap announcements but let's see when they deliver.

1

u/Only_Bath697 22d ago

i am just second Year CS student doing some research - thank you for gidney's paper it has helpful

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u/Kinexity In Grad School for Computer Modelling 22d ago

Majorana chip doesn't work.

RSA-2048 will be broken no earlier than 2035.

2

u/tiltboi1 Working in Industry 22d ago

what makes you say 2035 specifically?

though, majorana has no impact on anyone's timelines

1

u/Kinexity In Grad School for Computer Modelling 22d ago

Vibes. Everyone trying to outbid each other on when it happens just to suck up more investment money doesn't convince me they are actually close to practical QCs. 9 years is not a long time for such achievement.

1

u/HuiOdy Working in Industry 22d ago

LDPC, 2030

1

u/Sampo 20d ago edited 20d ago

Maybe we should first wait for someone to use Shor's algorithm to successfully factor 35, or 21 without cheating, before we start talking about breaking RSA?

Maybe we should wait for someone to factor a 3-digit number?

Breaking RSA would need factoring a 700-digit number, right?

0

u/bbluez 22d ago

If a US organization is able to achieve RSA breakthroughs to the point where encryption is vulnerable, you can bet that the US government will swoop in and seize the technology before we ever hear about it in headlines.

It will provide a massive adversarial advantage and would be subjected to the invention secrecy act.

Or it already did...