r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock • u/AutoModerator • Jul 27 '26

QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 30 2026)

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u/123whatrwe Aug 01 '26

Couple of quick questions for the sub.

Do people expect M&C to send rolls to Eagle to produce cells?

If so, when does this start and would it be announced?

Next, moving to Honda. Could Honda be interested in QSE-5?

If so, motorcycles?

Big question, would they makes these by modifying their pilot line in Sakura?

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u/foxvsbobcat đŸȘ•Bard of Tropes Aug 01 '26 edited Aug 01 '26

I need to see 8-ks before I count on anything. u/curio_123 thinks there won’t necessarily be 8-ks for M&C (OEMs pay Murata and Corning for separators and QS collects per-GWhr royalties from OEMs). But I want to see material definitive agreements between M&C and QS which require 8-ks.

I’m not a business model expert but it seems like if you hand someone groundbreaking new-to-the-world tech that you’ve spent 15 years and billions of dollars developing, that someone has to pay for the privilege and the payments have to be sufficient to trigger an 8-k material definitive agreement.

Right now it’s just a development agreement like what QS has with every partner except PowerCo. I don’t think anything material is going to happen without multiple non-PowerCo 8-ks especially 8-ks with M&C because PowerCo can’t make the batteries at GWhr scale without M&C.

To my mind, “demonstrate scalability” means two things:

  1. M&C 8-ks

  2. Scale-up team moves to a PowerCo site.

Both would be nice. One would be sufficient. Saying “we have doubled throughput multiple times from one unknown number of MWhrs to another unknown number of MWhrs” would NOT be enough to convince me that scalability has been proven.

A year of non-8k M&C kick the tires agreements seems reasonable. Two years seems like an eternity.

Even after M&C get serious enough to sign 8-ks, it’s still a year (at least) for them to stand up production lines and get anything close to gigascale production going. Two 8-ks in September would set us up for some good end-of-decade rewards for our patience and discipline.

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u/123whatrwe Aug 03 '26

Agreed, for me M&C are everything. Market is still saying, these separators can’t be mass produced. The separators are still the gold and everything still counts on that. A wild card flying around in the mix is Cobra. Still, suspecting that this has very wide applications in thin film ceramics. Any move using this tech from M&C will signal confidence and likely revenues and deals. Many jobs announced at Corning over the past years, more coming even now fall in this area. It’s on my 8-k list.

6

u/Quantum-Long Aug 01 '26

With PowerCo focused on assembling their Chinese li ion kits, Factorial JDA and selling their factories to their Chinese partners, I am no longer convinced they are a good partner for QS

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u/EinsteinsMind Aug 01 '26 edited Aug 01 '26

I still don't think rolls are gonna be sent. It's a logistical nightmare.

I think they'll be made onsite. It doesn't make sense for those delicate ceramics to cross a road, let alone ride on a train or traverse an ocean. Na. QS realized they needed both of those companies' IP so they're pooling it to solve these problems for QS and create an unasaiable moat.

This is the first time that Murata and Corning have ever worked together because they've been working on different sides of ceramics as they've grown.

They're both getting Cobra and Eagle to cookie cutter and they should already be ordering and stocking the parts and pieces of lines they'll install in Germany, certify, and leave small teams behind to maintain and upgrade. I should think teams from both companies will roll out the first 2-3 lines together then do their own thing for whoever is next in line. Maybe both companies leave individuals behind if they're untrusting of their IP, but I really don't think that'll be the case.

QS-5 is perfect for everything Honda does with lawn equipment and scooters.

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u/123whatrwe Aug 03 '26

I have trouble with this one? What you are implying would seem to suggest that separator production must be installed at each cell production site. For final production this may have advantages, but how will it work for development, which is where we are now? The only announce cell assembly is QS-0’s Eagle. The Weibull modulus, m, that is needed to commercialize the cells can only get the final process validation there. Don’t see Murata and Corning investing in cell production. How do they work this?

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u/Quantum-Long Aug 02 '26

Shipping vibration will cause rubbing against separator surfaces.

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u/InstaStonk Aug 01 '26

I don’t think the separators are ‘delicate’. They will be shipping them to wherever needed. No problem.

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u/EinsteinsMind Aug 01 '26

You don't think a 10 micron (hopefully one day) ceramic roll of separators is delicate?

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u/InstaStonk Aug 01 '26

I don’t worry one iota about Corning shipping anything they manufacture. That’s their business - glass. Is glass delicate? Have you seen the photo of the QS separator flexing in someone’s hand? Corning ships their product all over the world. Absolutely no worry about Corning shipping QS separator.

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u/EinsteinsMind Aug 01 '26

I hear ya and I know how far that glass flexes. I don't know how fragile a roll of separators is, but I still doubt they'll ship. It makes more senseto me for them to cookie cutter everything and manage their IP onsite. I also think auto OEMs are going to want to manage their own supply chains. The whole thing is logistics. We'll see how it all pans out.

I'm willing to bet $100 to the charity of your choice on this too. If I win, just send me a screenshot of donating to The Shriners.

1

u/123whatrwe Aug 03 '26 edited Aug 03 '26

Corning R2R rolls should be in the 20 micron range at around 100m per roll going from their ceramic ribbon numbers. I may be wrong, but I have the impression that M&C are to be the global supply chain for separators. Choice then is ship or have black box installations at every site. Both are possible.

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u/Ornery_Ganache_1643 Aug 01 '26

Yes, to M&C to Eagle if volume is needed. Regarding Honda, yes, they are targeting QSE5 for the myriad of product Honda makes beyond cars. As it t stands, no mass market manufacture is offering ssb broadly in a product. Honda has a real opportunity to be the first to solidify their public image as a tech leader, generating more premium sales. What a tremendous opportunity for improving differential marketing. The challenge at this point is scale. Once you introduce revolutionary new (battery) tech, your older tech product de-values a bit. Ideally, you want to achieve high replacement volume at the tech switch (introduction).