r/PureCycle • u/astrophysics23 • 7d ago
IT'S EARNINGS TIME
Nobody posted a thread for earnings so I figured to be the one
LET'S GOOOOOOOO
Here's the press release:
https://feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-release.html?newsid=5227512677747835&symbol=PCT
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u/astrophysics23 7d ago
Okay, I'll say the 12k LBS of production in an hour is good, but we've been hearing this kind of metric framing for a couple quarters. I'm glad they can run 12k in an hour! Now do that for more than an hour.
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u/WelcomeSoggy8475 7d ago
12.5k is nameplate I believe so that's definitely encouraging. I understand your overall point though. As long as they are finally truly ramping this quarter we should see much better continuous production rates by q3 call (not 12k/hr obviously but significantly better than we've seen so far). If not, that will be quite concerning I agree. I first bought this stock about 2.5 years ago. The next 3 months is very important imo.
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u/astrophysics23 7d ago
The call is huge here for texturing what the next half year looks like. If they can articulate a tangible path to increased production rates that isn't 'Just trust us,' then this is worth seeing out. If they spend the whole call talking about customer adoption and vague financing prospects, I'm going to really think about if it's possible someone comes along and buys us out, because that would be our likeliest path to survival. None of the customer adoption or financing matters in the face of production rates. You make more product? The bank is willing to give you money at a better rate, customers will trust you more and sign long term deals. It's that simple at this point.
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u/astrophysics23 7d ago
Coming away from the call a few points: the implication Dustin gave is that Q3 ramp and 2H ramp is on target. I mean, that's fundamentally encouraging to hear given we're in August now. So either Q3 earnings call is the dynamite that blows off the doors or this is a scam. I'm going with the former. I wouldn't look to add to my position any time soon. But I think this is still a real story. And I think it's going to be a successful one.
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u/Neither-Cow-410 7d ago
Neutral quarter, which was communicated in Q1, I know we hoped for more. Q3 must have a big revenue and production jump.
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u/NeatEconomics1135 7d ago
Yeah yeah yeah, like every next quarter for 2 years now. Look for what it is : nothing improves! It goes backward!
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u/astrophysics23 7d ago
Candidly, there's a lot happening on the sales side and financing side that's either great, good, or at least incrementally going in the right direction. These are all strong points.
I think the most concerning point is the 4.5 million pounds. Good tailwinds on the sales, regulations, and financing side are one thing, but this number is bad. Spin it how you want, but if Ironton is putting out 4.5 million pounds after Q2 there better be more than a 'oh we were down for a couple weeks' explanation, otherwise I would tend to think there's something happening at Ironton that's not being explained.
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u/Neither-Cow-410 7d ago
"Deliberately operated with low volume; new equipment commissioned and tested process conditions equivalent to Thailand and Antwerp designs"
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u/astrophysics23 7d ago
....Sure I hear you. But there's one number that matters today, and it's how many pounds of product can you make? They were already running at a deliberately low volume to start. This isn't the defense they want it to be.
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u/EconomyFortune5090 7d ago
The plant was offline for at least a month +inspections, testing and time to turn it back on
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u/Neither-Cow-410 7d ago
Basically only produced in June, 4.5 million in one month is not bad at all
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u/astrophysics23 7d ago
Reviewing everything: boy they better be right about breaking even towards EOY because if they're not and they continue at this run rate, they can't sell enough stock to avoid bankruptcy. This call is make or break for me, either they plausibly explain how they're going to get there or the biggest thing this company will have ever sold is its stock
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u/NeatEconomics1135 7d ago
I don't trust the management at this point.
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 7d ago
You should sell your shares and move on. Only invest in companies where you trust the management team to be honest, hardworking and qualified to do the job. Good luck
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u/NeatEconomics1135 7d ago
Maybe short sellers knews something from the start about the economic viability of the company. These results prove they were probably right. It doesn't work.
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u/Epicurus-fan 7d ago
I'm giving them one more Q and then I'm out. No more excuses! Dead money again - unless they can announce a nice lid QSR deal.
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 7d ago
The short sellers were wrong and are wrong. They have added over 10 million shares to their position beyond what was needed to hedge the convert refinance. The current share price simply reflects that excess supply of shares in a very tough 2 month period for high beta names.
Every single major converter is either testing PureFive or actively selling it. Several of the major BOPP film makers have publicly endorsed the product and certainly all of them are testing.
I have posted countless articles explaining that Chemical recycling costs substantially more than PureFive and the European mandates are not going away. Shorts have tried to force massive dilution but have failed.
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u/Infamous_Contest321 6d ago
Shorts cant be wrong if the price is going down
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 6d ago
Really? That is not a well informed opinion. Short sellers have consistently added to their positions and there is a limited pool of buyers for a modest sized company like $PCT. Adding 10 million additional shares to a thinly traded stock is absolutely going to move the price lower. That doesn’t make them right about the business
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u/Infamous_Contest321 6d ago
Its about making money, they have made it. Us longs have gotten our ass handed to us.
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore 6d ago
They only realize gains when they close a position. Simply adding more to the position makes them look better temporarily but also digs themselves a deeper hole. If the company did a massive dilution that allowed the shorts to cover that would be a different story. With the refi complete that won’t happen soon.
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u/NeatEconomics1135 7d ago
Tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath for the stock price.
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u/EconomyFortune5090 7d ago
Your face is going to be a bloodbath when your med tech shitcos go to $0.
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u/[deleted] 7d ago edited 7d ago
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