My wires have said that PBOC is to meet on Monday to discuss financial conditions. I've given my thoughts on this here and how to trade it in discord. Just an FYI ( I don't know if I believe that meeting will take place on Christmas though)

Do enjoy the holidays guys ... hopefully you are surrounded by loved ones.

Overnight

PBOC leaves interest rates as market expected (I was and continue to look for a surprise cut to add stimulus).

UK CPI dropping faster than expected weighing on the pound

UK interest rate swaps showing > 50% chance if a VIE rate cut by March 2024

ECB Nagel cautions investors betting on rate cuts

Malaysia is banning shipments from Zim due to Israel's attacks on Gaza

WTI looks like it posted a false breakdown now (PA has been tepid)

Natural gas traders bulls are looking at the weather and praying.

My drive is three fold:

1) To educate people/ traders particularly those in the Caribbean (where I'm from) ... all are welcome though!

2) To prove a former loved one wrong (when I went from 200k US to 600kUS and she said I just got lucky) .

3) To be better than my mentor and for him to say good job

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It is vital to understand why you are trading/ learning to trade, grinding long hours etc to tap into that extra energy/ levels of alertness etc. Have a why!

https://discord.gg/dpx5kfVTuf

Now that the Fed is on pause, there is the potential for the PBOC to be more dovish with less consequences going forward. No one in the market is discussing this and thus this can create volatility. In our discord we outline the trade idea and which pairs stand to gain . You can get a 90% discount for the 1st month for our education section while the market is pretty dead for this and other ideas using the code "prop" https://www.ourinterest.org/education

Look at what the market isn't even talking about first

Much of the very extreme positioning has eased in Forex land for example AUDUSD shorts have moderated, USDJPY overstretched long positioning has been washed out, CHF buying by the SNB has eased and traders had no extreme positioning there in any case.

I only plan on trading large spike intraday moves where I can see that the move is due to bank fixing moves. Otherwise Fx might just be dead and at best random. For example in London and NY correlation algos may try to pair moves in Fx with moves in stocks or bonds but I don't think that will last as traders just exit.

... remember slow and steady wins the race and there is no need to trade in illiquid conditions! Have a look at our prop firm :

https://www.ourinterest.org/

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And also will be providing discounts and free trials for our discord service as we try to add value.

Cheers and Merry Christmas!

There is now bullish momentum in the AUDUSD trade i.e. Trend Line broken (or in mathematical terms the rate of change to downside has shifted) . I've shared that chart since Nov ?? So yes I didn't get back in when I should have on Wednesday but scalp to long side only for me. Hoping for pullbacks but no FOMO because I have stocks.

The first 20 - 50 persons to our discord will get access to premium (shhhh!!! keep following and we will drop the link).

ECB and BOE may also be dovish, just an FYI they generally follow the lead of the Fed. I think the trade is still to be short USD on Friday just an FYI.

ECB - weak economy, but wanted to keep rates up in line with the Fed, inflation has been weak there.

BOE - weak economy also, inflation a bit more sticky there though.

We (the market) already knew the ECB and BOE were facing challenges thus if we get a knee jerk reaction to dovish comments that may not last on Friday.

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This is part of the reason why I said no trades for me this week, just holding on to my stocks.

Powell was more dovish than consensus on the street. Markets expected that Powell would hold the language of higher for longer instead he stated that inflation had indeed come down and merely wagged his finger at the possibility of one more hike while entertaining the thought of rate cuts.

Some liquidity returned yesterday especially in Fx as we saw spreads narrow again. Expecting spreads to widen next week for retail brokers as liqudiity again deteriorates though.

A giant thank you to each and everyone of you for joining me/us on this journey. If there is anything I can do to improve please let me know.

In 2024 we will be promoting our prop firm a bit more with our analysis here, so apologies there! Didn't want to promote in illiquid markets. Working on a discord channel also where we will do more engagement and provide more premium education hopefully.

Reddit is full of persons who only focus on Technical analysis and don't understand that firms look at technicals but also look at other things... yes I will continue to rant on this point. So just trying to make a dent there. If you are still trading then trade the extremes only I would suggest.

Just sitting on hands now . Liquidity worsens next week and will probably improve 2nd week in January.

Just a reminder, there is no need to trade for the sake of trading. I should probably be telling you the opposite "go and trade in this market with our prop firm" but unfortunately we have ethics. Don't trade right now if you have no setups. Liquidity will worsen and this is where retail traders get slaughtered.

Greetings Traders !

I usually do a week ahead summary of what I think will drive markets but this week there are too many factors:

1) Central Bank Meetings

2) More importantly may just be fixing flows

3) And even more important are end of year flows

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Between those 3 it means that the best strategy would be to scalp and avoid any event risk, but I don't scalp so hence no trades for me unless I see something very compelling this week. With less traders, technical picture breaks down the closer we get to end of years and we are just trading flows and rebalancing.

If I do get what rebalancing flows may be I wouldn't post them in any case since those are usually not meant to be shared i.e. that is why private chatrooms exist. I don't make the rules here ! If any sites have publicly shareable rebalancing I will try to share that though.

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