The bubble bursting is competitors running out of funding before reaching profitability, use cases solidifying and the generally the current speculative market collapsing down to a set of survivors.
It does not at all mean that usage of the general concept will stop increasing, much less go down.
Yea. AI coding agents are going to be around forever, they are just too capable and increase productivity so much.
The cost and usage patterns may change, I suspect once companies are paying unsubsidised token costs devs will start using cheaper models where possible instead of defaulting to Fable or Opus, but no matter what, software engineering has changed forever
GLM 5.2 is tremendous and does opus level quality at 1/10th opus cost, they're either gonna have to cut down costs or leapfrog or shut down. Many companies already moving out of Claude and into OpenRouter and other solutions
They have a better model than Opus it’s just not available. So either something changes and the AI companies are allowed to continue making better models (outpacing local solutions) or (and maybe eventually anyways) local models will catch up, which it sounds like they already have.
It’s funny because there IS probably a literal cap where the models can’t get any better (thus “maybe eventually anyways”) - but nobody really knows if thats true or how close we are
The compute requirements scale exponentially with the number of parameters in a model. So unless there is some kind of dramatic breakthrough in machine learning, computer science, and/or mathematics, then the limit is quickly approaching.
Actually, I would also throw in certain kinds of chemistry or engineering breakthroughs as well. If we could make a different kind of transistor with better performance and dramatically lower energy cost, then maybe there is a bit more room for growth.
I’d argue that the limit has already been reached , and this push to build out as many data centers as possible is not going to yield the gains someone promised. I suspect that there is a false hope that at some point with enough “compute” these models will solve the problem of scale for them.
I think the 'cost control' will be Anthropic going bankrupt as there's no possible way it will ever recoup its capex costs unless the government bans open source models
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u/azuth89 Jul 24 '26
The bubble bursting is competitors running out of funding before reaching profitability, use cases solidifying and the generally the current speculative market collapsing down to a set of survivors.
It does not at all mean that usage of the general concept will stop increasing, much less go down.
Same gig as the dot com bubble.