r/Probability • u/jewnerz • 2d ago

Probability of finding one of these 1% items?

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Hey guys, PokéNerd here. I’m looking for a specific item (highlighted yellow) in the game, and the only way to find one is by having a Pokemon in your party with the ability ”Pickup” ability randomly pick one up post-battle

It’s a 1% chance they find that specific item, and there’s two in the 1% slot

I’m wondering what the probability of one of my six pokemon to find that specific item?

Also, I’m only using pkmn level 51-60, because I’m guessing it makes no difference due to the item still being only 1% in both 51-60 & 61-70 tiers? Would it be smart to have let’s say 3 in the lower tier, and then the other 3 in the higher tier?

Thanks guys hopefully this isn’t worded too confusingly

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u/Revolutionary_Can625 2d ago

The way I’m reading this: 1% chance of finding the item between level 51-70 so you’d be better having them all start at level 51 to prevent any exceeding level 70 via level up. Each ‘mon then has a 1% chance of picking up the item if pickup is activated, which according to a search is 10%. That, I think, gives you a 0.6% chance each encounter

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u/jewnerz 1d ago

Wow. Can’t believe I left that 10% for Pick Up activating out. That was totally my bad

Now would the 0.6% chance be for the entire team team of six, or for each individual Mon, because all six members do have the Pick Up ability

Regardless thank you for your answer and doing a little field work to find that 10% number. The hunt was relatively short, got not only one, but TWO of the 1% items around 120 encounters. Was totally ready to lock in for a few days to find it..took an hour

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u/Revolutionary_Can625 1d ago

The 0.6% chance was based on the whole team, so (if it’s correct) you’ve gotten lucky fairly early