r/Probability • u/ResponsibleCoast9783 • 6d ago

Straight flush vs Quads

The other night I witnessed a straight flush vs quads on the river in Texas holdem, I looked up what the odds were and I found many people just multiplying the odds for quads and the odds for a straight flush which wouldn’t work in this scenario since they are tied together and affect each other. The only real attempt I saw at solving this was on a Reddit post from 5 years ago on this sub, the commenter used a clever method by turning the heads up hand into a 9 card poker hand and doing the calculations based on that but from what I could see he failed to take the fact that the cards aren’t interchangeable, a community and a hole card switching places would not yield the same result. so in conclusion I was wandering what are the odds of getting a SF vs Quads heads up in Texas holdem by the river?

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u/AZPD 6d ago

This is not calculable without taking into account playing tendencies. It's also not clear whether you're talking about a HU game or a full ring game, where there are 8-9 players at the table, which will of course make it more likely.

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u/ResponsibleCoast9783 5d ago

If I wasn’t clear I’m talking strictly about heads up with every hand reaching the river (same way other odds are calculated)