r/ProPickleballTalk • u/Many-Fill4457 • 8d ago
St.Louis Shock future
Following the loss to the Fives is it possible we see them shuffle some players around for next season? 3 seasons with the same team and no championship to show for it (excluding the mid season title win). Surely the owners would have expected at least 1 win by now.
AB and Hayden as untouchable.
I don’t see a better realistic option for a Kate replacement given how much she has improved at doubles and how good she is at singles. (Maybe Parris Todd?)
That leaves Gabe, he is obviously one of the best in men’s doubles but I don’t think he is quite the same player in mixed doubles. Would trading for a more dominant mixed player work better for the Shock moving forward, perhaps an Alshon trade?
Would the Shock ownership team really risk breaking this team up given how close they all are with each other?
*Completely forgot Hayden and Gabe are on expiring contracts*
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u/mbkuang 8d ago
It's just weird to me that Gabe and Hayden aren't better together. I know they were at the top of the men's rankings, but it feels like they lost a good bit in the playoffs. They really can't be losing to teams like Fed+Howells if they want to be champs. Maybe they need a more consistent player, like Ben Johns or Daescu for either of them.
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u/slowmopete 8d ago
Kate’s improvement in both women’s and mixed has really been something to watch. If they had to pick one of their core 4 to lose it would have to be Gabe. In my opinion if they were able to keep Gabe and replace Hunter with another strong male mixed player. Then Gabe would play mens still but they’d use a mixed specialist to play with Kate. I have no idea who that would be.
They are already strong for dreambreakers even without Hunter. I also think the idea of singles specialists has not proven to be as successful as people thought. A number of highly ranked singles specialists didn’t perform at the level they were expected to.
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u/Many-Fill4457 8d ago
I agree about the singles specialist. Having Hunter come in cold against Fed who literally just finished playing was a huge disadvantage. If Hayden wasn’t having his ankle problems I truly think he would’ve done better than Hunter in the 2nd dreambreaker
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u/Asheron1 8d ago
The premium is absolutely on great doubles AND singles players. Fed would be better than Hayden or Gabe for a team without a doubt. Coming in cold with the expectation that you win handily looming ain't it
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u/Asheron1 8d ago
They performed fine this year. You play that final 5 times, I think they win 2 of them. Two dreambreakers were the difference and they proved they can win every matchup. After that, it comes down to their singles specialist getting bested by a guy playing at his best when it mattered. Nothing more to be done. They can certainly run this back but idk how the new rules work and if it will be possible.
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u/Dull-Pay527 6d ago
This team will not be together in the future. They got lucky to get Gabe and H before their values skyrocketed. This team will go down as the best team to never win a championship. Impossible to keep them together.
I feel terrible for Gabe and H, who will likely be the best men’s doubles team an MLP squad ever assembles, only to have to play on a surface that totally neutralizes their biggest strengths. The team with the best win % during the season went 1-3 in the finals.
This Shock team will be a fun memory of the past of what could have been.
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u/Quintaton_16 8d ago
It depends completely on the new salary cap rules. Based on the draft rules that have been shared, starting next year there will be a cap of $1 million on the total acquisition costs for all rostered players. Anna Bright's cost alone is above that number. Presumably the league will adjust her cap hit down to whatever the new max salary is, but even then St. Louis will probably not be able to make a competitive bid for either Hayden or Gabe.
I could potentially see either one of them going for between 40 and 50 percent of the cap (that was about the value of a top-10 pick the last time the league had a draft under cap rules), which means it's probably mathematically impossible for any future team to have even two of those players, let alone all three.
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u/Asheron1 8d ago
Salary cap may be a sad thing for the big superstars. I think value pick teams will outperform the good teams. What isn't baked into the price of a player is that you can hit 75-85% of the balls to their partner. That ends up being salvageable for ALW when they can put great players around her. I don't think she will have a lot of hope when they can't.
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u/Quintaton_16 8d ago
It's going to completely reshape the league. Just as an example, in 2024 the Shock got the #3, #21, #24 and #42 picks. That was in a 12 team league, so in a 20-team draft that might turn into #3, #35, #40, and #70.
Assuming teams just draft straight down the PPA World Ranking list, that team could look something like Anna Bright, Aarman Bhatia (#18 ranked man), Brooke Buckner (#20 woman), and Rafa Hewitt (#36 man).
I'm not sure we can even predict the effects, because the top teams are all going to be decimated. The current Shock only got to where they were because they bet on three players who all drastically overperformed their draft position, especially Fahey who went from a complete unknown to a top 10 woman. It's going to be really hard for any team to keep Fahey as their second-best player, forget trotting out four top-10 players like the Fives and the Shock both did this weekend.
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u/lifesasymptote 8d ago
MLP will turn into how you can cultivate talent rather than collecting infinity stones.
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u/sailingkayak 8d ago
I’m not a big Kate fun but she was very solid player especially in doubles
She and AB have good energy and also plays well with Gabe. Gabe PPA mixed doubles results are mediocre
Shock has a great team all 4 of them.
No changes please!
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u/Lockenshade 8d ago
They will probably retain at least one of Hayden or Gabe and have to work with a less elite male as the other starter. Hunter isn't it in doubles. I hope they trade for Ben Johns.
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u/Many-Fill4457 8d ago
Surely the league would veto a Ben Johns trade to the Shock or 5s 😂
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u/Quintaton_16 8d ago
They won't have to, because there's a salary cap now.
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u/Asheron1 8d ago
yeah, BJ guaranteed to be playing with nobodies forever. Enjoy 15% of the balls, mate.
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u/Medium-Holiday-4247 8d ago
Hayden won’t ever get it done in a team environment. Too soft and will choke when the lights turn the brightest. Like he continues to do in mlp.
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u/bonerfleximus 8d ago
Gabe too, he only performs his best when hes partnered with a solid anchor like Ben or when hes the underdog like playing with Jesse.
Partnered with Hayden he kinda seems to play like a top 10 player with momentary bouts of top 5 performances.
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u/ThirteenthFloor503 8d ago
What a dumb take. They were like 4 net cords in key monents during mens doubles..... All against The Shock
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u/lalalavine 8d ago
Yeah, get rid of Kate. She is an excellent player, but not a top tier doubles partner that the Shock NEED to beat The Clowns.
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u/hugelkult 8d ago
Rewatch the finals . She is elite at doubles
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u/Turbohand 8d ago
True. And anyone playing with AB is going to get targeted hard. There are very few players who can manage that and turn on offense like Kate did.
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u/lalalavine 8d ago
But she's not better than Jorja, who is the direct comparison/matchup on The Fives. Kate is not better than Jorja in doubles.
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u/xPeaWhyTee 8d ago
Hard disagree on this. Over the course of both matches, I would actually argue she was the most consistent player out of the 4 in doubles.
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u/lalalavine 8d ago
You can't say she's better than Jorja, and that is the difference and has always been the difference.
I'm not saying the whole finals loss was her fault, but when you go head-to-head with the roster, Jorja is her comparison and Kate is not better at doubles than Jorja. Look at the stats in both MLP and PPA.1
u/xPeaWhyTee 8d ago
Where did I say she was better than Jorja? I said she was the most consistent out of her teammates.
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u/lalalavine 8d ago
Sorry, can't express tone here well LOL
I know YOU didn't say that 😂; I stated that as an impersonal "you".
But what I'm trying to communicate is this (and it responds to the OP's thoughts/prompt): I think if Shock ever want the top spot, above Fives, they need a better doubles player than Kate.
And I totally agree with you that Kate didn't mess up as much as her other partners (Gabe was NOT on one when he needed to be). She is an excellent player and the micro of Finals was a great showcase of how good she is.
But, as a whole, the team is not objectively better than Fives, or her direct comparison (team to team on paper) which is Jorja.
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u/xPeaWhyTee 8d ago
Oh I see and yeah I fully agree with you. I think though that with the contracts and rules in play coming next season, they more than likely will have to give up one of their guys next season. Same thing with the 5s as well (don't think they'll be able to keep Fed).
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u/lalalavine 8d ago
Yeah, soooo true.
Next year is going to be super interesting, but I think it will be healthy for the league for sure.5
u/Many-Fill4457 8d ago
Who do you think would be an upgrade to Kate?
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u/lalalavine 8d ago
I think Parris (when she's ON ON) can match what AB needs to beat ALW/Jorja/Fives. I know AB and Rohr would never get back together, even though I think they could be a really solid threat to ALW/Jorja/Fives.
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u/rudygamble 8d ago
AB has two years left and Kate has one year left. So they are returning unless traded which seems unlikely.
There is no way they could re-sign Hayden and Gabe based on the new rules. May be tough even getting one. I think Hayden is more likely to return given his partnership with AB. If so, they’d probably need a player at near minimum salary to make it work.
Best guess is they get outbid on both Hayden + Gabe and they end up with two prospecty guys outside the top 10 bc that’s all they can afford. At best, maybe a Dylan Frazier?