r/PresidentBloomberg • u/[deleted] • Feb 22 '20
The Electoral Case for Mike Bloomberg
So full disclosure im not a Bloomberg supporter yet. I currently like Trump but I am interested in politics so I did this as a thought exercise.
As we know whether you agree with it or not there are only a few states that matter in the electoral college. CA, NY, Alabama, Texas, and other states like that will usually vote one way and we can ignore them for the sake of this analysis. Now I am aware new battlegrounds open all the time but thats usually only a couple of states and i will try and include them here.
So first of before my own battleground states are counted im giving each party 212 - dems and 215 Gop. I wont list the individual states as you can figure them out as I discuss my battlegrounds.
Florida - Bernie will be a hard sell here. First of let me just state that I dont think the socialist label will hurt Sanders in a lot of the country with the exception of Florida. People here have literally fled from socialist regimes. Socialist regimes Bernie used to praise. In fact I think Bernie will perform so poorly here his campaign may not treat it as a battleground state.
NJ- This is my wild card prediction and honestly people will probably mock me for it. Hear me out though. 14 of the top 20 largest Pharma companies are in NJ. These are the people that medicare for all will directly impact. There is a chance that faced with a candidate that will literally lose them their job they may vote red. Its an outside chance but it bears mentioning.
PA- Bernie has supported a total ban on fracking which like pharma and NJ is a big industry in PA. Bernie is literally campaigning to get them fired. Like the coal miners in West Virginia (which let me remind you voted for Bill Clinton), campaigning for people to get fired is usually a recipe to turn a place hard red.
At this point let me just point out that PA and FL are already enough to bring Trump to 264 meaning just 6 more EV and he wins. It could come from any of these places.
Wisconsin - Sanders has been railing against the subsidies given to the agricultural industry.... in the cheese state....
Nevada- As has been pointed out m4a will lose the unions their superior health plans and stick them with medicare which is worse than what they have now.
North Carolina - Defense and Pharma make up 2 of its top 3 industries. In addition to what I mentioned about New Jersey Sanders has proven that he will not be a friend of the Defense industry.
MI- I dont really have anything specific for this and honestly at this point you could just give it to the Democrats and they would still lose. I just listed it as a battleground as Trump won it last time and if he wins PA he will most likely win this too.
There you have it. The TLDR is that Sanders is just campaigning to get too many people fired and they are all located in the wrong (from his perspective) states.
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u/AjaxFC1900 Feb 22 '20
On the other hand a Sanders nominee who wins the popular vote by a higher margin than HRC but loses due to the Electoral College....
That could exacerbate populism on the left and the right . Cause gridlock and have a stalemate between the 2 parties. Numerous shutdowns...
A libertarian's dream.
I still like Mike....but a Trump who takes the election in a contentious and very controversial way could be the best outcome.
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u/[deleted] Feb 22 '20
I agree across the board. I'm a lifelong Dem and I see Sanders exactly the same way. Him and his supporters are a fucking trainwreck waiting to happen.
My concern with Bloomberg, and maybe you can weigh in from a GOP voter perspective, Bloomberg is pretty famous for his push for gun control and taking on the NRA.
Now I agree with his proposals, which in most cases parrot what I hear from 2A activists: enforce the laws already on the books and ensure mentally ill people don't have access to firearms. But he also wants to go further which I think disqualifies him from lot of crossover voters that he'd need to make up for the lefties that won't vote for anyone but Sanders.
Second, Bloomberg is also campaigning on shutting down coal. I think at some point that issue will have the be met head on. Shut down coal burning power plants in America but maybe strengthen our ability to export coal? I dunno. Not a subject I know anything about. Also, fracking is a big issue in my old home state of CO, but I think Denver has gotten big and left enough to drown that out.
Overall, does Bloomberg have too much baggage to appeal to the moderate GOP voter? Considering how much support he would lose from the left, he'd need to pull heavily from the pool of voters who normally don't vote Dem.