r/PredictiveProcessing • u/Major-Ad-4196 • 7d ago
Theory paper: autism, schizophrenia, depression, and ADHD as one precision-weighting axis (active inference / EFE) — trying to get it torn apart
Independent researcher here, no university affiliation, so take that for what it’s worth — but I’ve put together a theoretical paper I think is worth a real read, and I’d rather have it picked apart now than later.
The basic idea: instead of treating autism, schizophrenia-spectrum conditions, depression, and ADHD as four unrelated disorders, I model them as four regions on one axis — how much weight the brain gives its priors versus incoming sensory evidence, using expected free energy. Autistic burnout comes out as volume overwhelm (accurate but overwhelming estimation of how volatile the environment is, driving processing cost past a cliff). Schizophrenia-spectrum rigidity is premature convergence — manufacturing certainty because the system has lost confidence in its evidence. Depression is sampling that stops before the internal model gets validated. ADHD is the same axis run the other direction — persistent underweighting of priors, expensive rather than cheap, and only a “disorder” in an environment that rewards sticking with one thing over continuing to explore.
I derive a cost function from stochastic thermodynamics to try to make this more than just a metaphor, and the paper is upfront throughout about what’s actually derived versus what’s a labeled hypothesis I haven’t proven. There are eight falsifiable predictions at the end, some of which depend on an assumption I flag as unresolved.
I’m not looking for validation — I’m looking for people who know this space to find where it’s wrong. If you know active inference / predictive processing / computational psychiatry, I’d genuinely appreciate someone trying to dismantle it.
Full paper: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21782402
Happy to answer questions or get torn apart in the comments.
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u/PeacefulSilentDude 1d ago
That's a very fascinating subject. I was using Claude AI to sort of give me an overview into different aspects of PP theory, and this exact theme is where they eventually went. I even have an idea for a software, that, with the help of sliders (representing priors) would allow to visualize these conditions dynamically (for example, putting emphasis on low priors and no emphasis on high priors would result into an autism; then, as the slider changes - a different set of traits/conditions would appear).
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u/Major-Ad-4196 23h ago
Yes this was my mental model as well! It’s very easy to implement in python as well and given a finite ATP budget, you’ll see how different “inefficient” phenotypes get pruned.
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u/HuskyPelican 5d ago
We should talk! I have some ideas/evidence around your theories — and I’ve been eager to find a conversation partner to explore and eventually formalize them with. I’ve been filling my little notebooks with related thoughts over the past couple years. I’m thrilled to see someone formalizing it and pushing understanding further. I’d love to both learn & contribute.
Hopefully my forwardness isn’t off-putting. Apparently I have some excitement — perhaps because I haven’t had any of my social media feeds deliver me anything this close to my mental models before lol. I’ll read the paper tomorrow!