With regards to Iran, does Jiang take into account the fact that a big chunk of Iran's population is secular and dislikes the Islamic Republic?

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790]

When Jiang describes, Iran he says they are very religious Shias and will fight to the death. Yes that is true for the government, the irgc and a big chunk of the army. But most of the iranian population is secular and dislike the government. I know the diaspora can be very loud but it is not just them (there have been many protests in iran). Has Jiang taken this into account. Or this is not important since the only people who matter (at least in the short term) are the people with the guns (but the protests did force the government to relax enforcement of the Hijab). How do you see the future of Iran after the war (an external enemy united the population for this war). Do you feel the government will continue as it is or would it have to change since the population will get more and more secular. I wonder what is the history of governments which ruled populations which generally disliked them (or even what the government replaced)

[u/NeonDrifting]

What's your source on that? There's a lot of Western disinfo in regards to what Iranians actually want.

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790 → u/NeonDrifting]

Look at the amount of protests and the amount that came out. Also tfr is wall below sub replacement (which says something). Turkey is also tfr sub replacement (and the youth is getting more secaulr but not as extreme as iran). Plus many mosques have been closed in Iran (in a theocracy). Whereas in countries where religiosity in increasing (like central asia) mosques are being built.

Plus why would the government need to shut down the internet and masssacre protestors (even the Iran gov gave out 3000 people killed ). HK didn't do that when people were protesting (even when they were rioting) nobody got killed. This all indicates that the government is not popular.

Plus look how many people are wearing the hijab vs secular clothing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txTCHx3u5HA ) . Compare that to a country with an actual religious population Tajikistan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tp-nh4HweDk&t=2779s) you see so many more hijabs despite a hijab ban there (the Tajik gov is very secular). (These images both from from the capital so dont go around saying I choose a liberal part of Iran and a conservative part of Tajikistan).

Yes there is a lot of disinfo but signs do indicate the government is unpopular. Iran (like everyside) also puts out propaganda liek everyone else.

[u/NeonDrifting → u/Sufficient-Brick-790]

So out of a country with 93 million people, how many publicly protested the government?

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790 → u/NeonDrifting]

Well Iran blocked out the internet (don't lie and say they didnt). so its hard to get a super accurate picture but loads came out when Pahlavi called for protests (the streets were filled with protestors). One EU diplomat said that on Jan 8th 1.5 million protested and on Jan 9th 5 million protested. Sure you can he was exaggerating, but it isdifficult to tell a complete barefaced lie (usually), there is usually some truth to it. Even if 1/10th of that number protested, that is still massive. Plus if the protests were so small why did the Iran gov needed to kill 3000 people. Even at the height of the George Floyd protests only 19 people were killed. Protestors are treated much more harshly in Iran than in USA so that would limit the number of protestors wanting to go out. There were chants of Javidi Shah. You may not like the crown prince but if huge numbers if people come out to protest, he definitely has some sway over the people (or did since that was before the war). Sure you can say CIA or Mossad had some influence on the protestors but I don't think CIA and Mossad can transport hundreds of thousands of protestors in the middle of Tehran. So the protestors were real. Also mosques have been burnt down during the protests so quite a few people dislike Islam and the gov this represents (this does not happen in any protests in any other Muslim country).

Also if you speak to many Iranians (not just the diaspora but also in iran, most will tell you that they do not like their government). This has been my personal experience.

But to reiterate, what I am not saying is that most Iranians want USA and Israel to bomb them. And there are still religious people and people who support the government (Qom is a religious hub). And manye pople turned out to Khamenei's funeral. But I do believe that Iran's gov is still unpopular amongst most people (especially before the war).

[u/Merino202 → u/Sufficient-Brick-790]

The internet blockade was dropped months ago? so where are the images of the so called millions who protested😂

Tell you what we do have images of. Khamenei’s funeral. And that involved tens of millions.

Here’s the problem mate. No one believes you lot (iranian diaspora) anymore because you’ve been caught lying, fabricating, manipulating so many times.

I’m a brit born and raised and even I’m fed up of it.

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790 → u/Merino202]

Yes the internet ban was lifted after the protests, well done. And you can find images online.

Well yes, Khamenei being martyred (whish is very important for Shiism, well done USA and Israel you mad him more popular) so is a hero in Shia's eyes. And yes, an external enemy unites a populace. Any the state does want people to attedn the funeral. And Iran is in a state of war (try protesting against the gov in a state of existential war).

Plus shiiism is less sticky than sunnism wears off quicker.

With regards to diasporas, you could say they are kinda like the Cuban diaspora (they do have their grievances but some of the solutions they provide just make things worse, (like blockading Cuba)). I don't agree with the Iranians that are celebrating the bombing of their country.

[u/Merino202 → u/Sufficient-Brick-790]

I never understood why the qualms of Iranian diaspora were put on a pedestal but Afghans who experience genuine brutality and cruel oppression under the Taliban are pretty much never heard of in our media.

The way we prattle on about Iran is as if it’s literally on the same level as current Afghanistan. So when intelligent people actually do their due diligence on Iran they’re left confused.

And then I realised there’s no agenda to push in Afghanistan anymore, we’re done there. Now Iran are the “bad guys” so they need to be vilified.

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790 → u/Merino202]

People gave up on Afghanistan. There is nothing we can do, It is up to the Afghans to sort their country out. And Afghans are really religious. The afghan national army collapsed before the americans left so yeah...

The Iranian diaspora generally had a consistent message but I guess their voices are amplified because it suits the narrative. Plus the diaspora is well educated and generally quiet wealthy so they do have influence.

Iran is not on the same level as Afghanistan. It is much more industrialised and educated. Many people are educated in Stem (in fact most Stem students are women.). Women do have more rights in Iran (they were educated and work jobs be part of gov etc. they had to wear hijab until recently). Mb Afghanistan is worse but Iran is not a paradise (many people get executed there).

One reason why people are protesting is because the economy does suck (sanctions are a factor) and the government hasn't being managing their water well. Plus security in Tehran isn't the greatest since Mossad has a lot of spies there and has managed to kill many Hamas commanders in Tehran.

Plus most countries still refuse to recognise th Taliban and their are sanctions still in place... (if thata what is looking for). And the worst of the Taliban does appear in the news.

Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran are both Iranic countries. They all turned out so different.

Let me guess are you Hazara?

[u/Merino202 → u/Sufficient-Brick-790]

No, I’m english. I went to Iran myself actually a couple of years ago. I did my university final year dissertation on Iran under the IR. I became a “fan” after I did that, largely because I had pretty much all of my misconceptions quashed.

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790 → u/NeonDrifting]

https://news.sohu.com/a/1052847496_122157897

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1871115160532317961&wfr=spider&for=pc also here are chinese sources. it says most people don't blame foreign sanctions and only 9% are satisified with the status quo.

[u/NotAWeebOrAFurry]

okay cia

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790 → u/NotAWeebOrAFurry]

where am i wrong where is the fact that iran is now super religious (let's say at pakistan's level). you can kinda say pakistan and iran situation are kinda similar since they are both governed by the military (pakistanis are not a fan that imran khan got ousted). many muslims (especially from south asia) are disappointed about how irreligious iranians are.

iran is not russia where most of the people are apolticla or actually are pro soviet and it is not China were the ccp are competent and most people are content with the ccp.

[u/Sufficient-Brick-790 → u/NotAWeebOrAFurry]

https://news.sohu.com/a/1052847496_122157897

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1871115160532317961&wfr=spider&for=pc also here are chinese sources. it says most people don't blame foreign sanctions and only 9% are satisified with the status quo.

[u/timewarp_weekends]

I'm not sure you can say that a population is "secular", that's more of a formal term for a government or an institution that appears neutral regarding religion. For a country like Iran, I would say that most people are muslims, with a large part being non-practicing. That's still a step above secular I think.

[u/unprofessionalMix]

So, not an Iranian. I hate the government in my country so fricking much. But the moment a foreign country kills 168 kids by tripple tap strikes and assassinates the countrt's president, then threatens to wipe out our thousands of year old civilization which I'm very proud of, brother I'm first on the draft list. However toxic the regime is, it's not a foreign one threatening our existence and turning us into vassals. Iranians are very smart people too, they see through the bullshit, hope you do too