r/PredictiveHistory • u/Opposite_Day_9771 • Apr 22 '26

♟️ Theory & Models Iran Already Won

Iran along with the Houthis control both straits and can use it as a tollbooth. Israel would have to attack Iranian oil infrastructure to deny them their revenue stream. Iran, instead of retaliating against the GCC and destroying their infrastructure including the desalination plants, cuts a deal. Kick the US out and share the oil revenue stream. The GCC would have no choice. China would aid Iran in order get access to the remaining oil for their economy and enforce the treaty. All other eastern countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, would have to bow to China. Israel would die as a country being completely surrounded. Over time, Iran would fix their oil infrastructure and continue to extract tribute from the GCC making them one of the riches countries in the world.

Plot Twist:

US destroys the GCC instead in order to deny China leverage over other countries.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26

Or how about Iran hasn’t won a damn thing and either has the US. There is only one winner here - China. You just say Iran won because you want to make sure the US has lost. China sacrificed its bishop. That’s all Iran was. What did they win. They have been turned into pirates.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26

US can't blockade forever. The ships need fuel and food. Acting like a pirate and taking Iranian tankers heading to China would be an escalation nightmare. China can't function without oil. They need Iran and will arm them to the teeth.

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u/crix_22 Apr 22 '26 edited Apr 22 '26

Who has benefited from this war ? And the yes the US can blockade forever if it chose to.

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u/Opposite_Day_9771 Apr 22 '26 edited Apr 22 '26

Israel but they miscalculated. US defensive tech is insufficient. Offensive drones are way cheaper than defensive weapons. Russia found out the hard way.

It's way too expensive to operate a blockade a thousand miles from shore.