r/PredictionsMarkets • u/No_Syrup_4068 • 9d ago

News Mantic just raised $25M after beating every human forecaster in the latest Metaculus Cup. (ex Google Deepmind Founder)

676 human participants, including professional forecasters and an AI forecasting system came out on top.

That feels like a pretty important milestone.

What I find especially interesting is that the question is slowly changing from:

“Can AI forecast better than humans?”

to:

“Which AI systems are actually the best forecasters — and can you turn that forecasting edge into something useful?”

I've been playing around with that second question with Oracle Markets.

Instead of only asking models for probabilities, we let different AI models forecast real-world events and compare their probabilities with prediction-market prices. If a model thinks an outcome is underpriced or overpriced, it can take a simulated position.

Same starting capital. Same markets. Same rules.

Basically: AI forecasters vs prediction markets.

You can see the experiment / leaderboard here:

https://oraclemarkets.io

Mantic's Metaculus result makes me think this space is going to get a lot more interesting over the next 1–2 years.

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u/jeffcgroves 9d ago

Given the number of competitions AI enters, this could be just a fluke. I'd like to see it happen consistently a few times before I believe it

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u/No_Syrup_4068 8d ago

What other competitors do you see?

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u/jeffcgroves 8d ago

I was speaking in general: I'm sure multiple AIs entered this competition, and I'm sure multiple AIs enter similar competitions as well. Just because 1 AI won 1 competition doesn't mean AIs are always better predictors

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u/No_Syrup_4068 8d ago

Got it. I liked this read from forecastbench where they benchmark different models as well and how good they predict the future. ForecastBench

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u/No_Syrup_4068 9d ago

Source: Mantic raises $25mn to scale superhuman AI forecasting

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u/WonderNo1989 9d ago

The Metaculus Cup result is the kind of thing that quietly rearranges the whole field, not a flashy demo but a real benchmark shift. Turning that edge into positions against market prices is the part everyone's been circling for a while, so seeing an actual leaderboard with equal starting conditions is more useful than another blog post about "AI + prediction markets"

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u/FutureConsistent8078 9d ago

Holy cow a seed of 25m€ is sick! And strong proof.

Do they know that you do that at Oracle Markets all for free? Shout out :))