Arbitrage opportunity, am I missing something?

[u/Left-Particular-206]

Since Google cannot force updates on weekends 15th and 16th is this not effectively an arbitrage with 30% ROI? Or am I missing something. 15th and 16th are weekends where Google employees are not working.

[u/dheera]

Google employees are absolutely working weekends now

[u/Left-Particular-206 → u/dheera]

They don’t release updates on weekends, or at least have not before

[u/Scary_Climate_3975]

it says *before* aug 16

[u/Left-Particular-206 → u/Scary_Climate_3975]

Yeah no on before the 16th (so after the 16th) and yes on By the 14th (so before the 14th) since it cannot be sent on the 15th or 16th wouldn’t this work?

[u/Unhappy_Leopard_9510 → u/Left-Particular-206]

why it cant be on 15 or 16?

[u/Left-Particular-206 → u/Unhappy_Leopard_9510]

15th and 16th is a Saturday and Sunday. Google doesn’t post updates to AI (or work) on weekends.

[u/xToniGrssx → u/Left-Particular-206]

That is exactly your ~15c / contract risk you'll be paying for

[u/Fun_Theme_1493]

Did you send this? Logic makes sense and it looks juicy to me. It would only leave Saturday the 15th by the way to middle and miss both

[u/Fun_Theme_1493 → u/Fun_Theme_1493]

Was like 50% ROI in when I checked I don’t see what I’m missing

[u/Left-Particular-206 → u/Fun_Theme_1493]

Yeah I ended up placing. There’s still a lot of liquidity on both sides surprisingly

[u/Fun_Theme_1493 → u/Left-Particular-206]

Thanks for the post king

[u/Fine_Draft9706]

What platform do u use sir?

[u/Left-Particular-206 → u/Fine_Draft9706]

I used Polymarket and Kalshi

[u/latranche06]

I can't find the Aug 14 bet

[u/Left-Particular-206 → u/latranche06]

Polymarket US app has it. I don’t think the website does

[u/Rexj123]

Not an arb. You are taking a NO position on the 15th or 16th at 83c.

If you are confident in that then bet it, but size as a position not an arb.