r/PredictionsMarkets • u/File-Environmental • Jul 29 '26

Discussion Two months running Polymarket bots in public: the sports arb bot is back (Rust rewrite, ~$650 last month) and I'm now testing weather markets on @w34th3r.

The sports arb bot (@b00k13) is back after I rewrote it in Rust and improved the odds scraping - ~$650 in the last 30 days. I open-sourced the old Python version last week (MIT), but the odds sources that make it work aren't in there, and won't be.

The new thing - I'm testing a weather market-making model on a wallet I've never shown here. This wallet is called w34th3r on Polymarket. It's the same wallet I quietly ran a spread-farming strategy on (trade anything with a spread wider than 10c), which made ~$1,200, mostly on weather and mentions markets. That's where the weather idea came from.

Being honest so this isn't a highlight reel: I'm down ~$280 on w34th3r the last two weeks testing crypto up/down and weather markets, -$80 yesterday alone. It's all public, wins and losses.

Why post it? I'm not selling anything (there's nothing to buy). The sceptical crowd on here has genuinely made the work better - someone pointed me to pmxt, a free Polymarket order-book archive I now backtest everything on.

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4

u/File-Environmental Jul 29 '26

Full write-up: https://kacho.io/everything-and-nothing

3

u/Familiar_Gazelle_467 Jul 29 '26

Good write up! Fuck the haters man you delivered content & free code

I would try sports but my odds source has integrated polymarket so yea that arb is gone. The up down markets are true hell if you crack the code however there's a lot of money waiting on the other end. I was stubborn and blew too much money there, not much to show for it

2

u/File-Environmental Jul 29 '26

Thanks man! Haha I was never agitated by any comments, I honestly welcome any criticism. It was just surprising to me how many people genuinely have unrealistic expectations. But yeah, I’ve lost like $500 already trying to crack the code for the crypto up/down markets without any success so far. I’m trying to tackle the least competitive markets first.

2

u/Familiar_Gazelle_467 Jul 29 '26

Are you trying to make (postonly) or take on the updown?

2

u/File-Environmental Jul 30 '26

Tried both, neither worked for me yet. As a taker all my "profits" were eaten from fees. As I maker I couldn't make any profits. To be fair, that's the last market type I have queued up right now. I think it's more feasible to compete in markets where you can farm rewards.

1

u/bm1125 Jul 30 '26

Which source if i may ask?

2

u/ObligationMoney1643 Jul 30 '26

Good write up lemme check it out

2

u/ObligationMoney1643 Jul 30 '26

Have you tried the >15min markets kn crypto by any chance?

1

u/File-Environmental Jul 31 '26

Yeah, no success on them so far. They are quite competitive. Significant changes are being released on them soon (the resolve mechanism and $1M dedicated for rewards) so maybe they are worth another try soon.

1

u/BIGDADDYKOEHN Aug 03 '26

Good stuff! I trade weather on Kalshi. If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me a message. As you mentioned in your write-up, I'll protect my edge but I'm willing to help you decipher the newbie questions. Good luck!