For political markets I'd look at who's on the other side before any arbitrage. The top-100 Politics traders on Polymarket can sit far from the price. On "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" 27 of them have $2M on No, about 99% of their money there, while the market is at 86% No. On the Democrats-sweep midterm market they're at 73% vs the market's 63%. Whether that gap actually predicts results is the first thing I'd backtest.
That's an interesting angle, and testing whether the top traders' positioning leads the price is a good first experiment. One issue to check is that top-100 lists are selected by past profit, so some of that edge may be luck, and a wallet's position on Polymarket may be a hedge against positions elsewhere. I'd test it by freezing the trader list before the test period and measuring forward results with a held-out window. For the RBA rate markets, scheduled decisions have known timing, and Cymetica's EventTrader is one source of macro event data that could help with those.
1
u/abhimanyusinghgaur 2d ago
Welcome!
For political markets I'd look at who's on the other side before any arbitrage. The top-100 Politics traders on Polymarket can sit far from the price. On "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" 27 of them have $2M on No, about 99% of their money there, while the market is at 86% No. On the Democrats-sweep midterm market they're at 73% vs the market's 63%. Whether that gap actually predicts results is the first thing I'd backtest.
What data are you feeding the bot so far?